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2016 Postmortem

(901 posts)

1. Spot on!

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 06:16 PM

Nov 2016

The fundamental problem with Nate Silver’s model is that the state polls cannot be reconciled with the national trend.

That makes sense!

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15 replies

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The Fundamental Problem with Nate Silver's Model [View all] grantcart Nov 2016 OP

Spot on! manicraven Nov 2016 #1

Thats a great picture. grantcart Nov 2016 #4

Thank you for this concise explanation! Avalux Nov 2016 #2

Love the conclusion. I've seen a number of people say Hortensis Nov 2016 #3

HOW about early vote. How does that for in DLCWIdem Nov 2016 #6

He doesn't factor that in. And it doesn't make sense either grantcart Nov 2016 #7

Doesn't explicitly include early vote GopherGal Nov 2016 #16

So glad to see your posts again! yardwork Nov 2016 #8

Absolute nonsense grantcart Nov 2016 #10

His model is mostly based on state polls. BzaDem Nov 2016 #11

How Nate Silver "unskews" the polls -- and why he shouldn't. pnwmom Nov 2016 #15

Hey Cha grantcart Nov 2016 #13

Good point! And, considering Team Hillary's ground game, too Cha Nov 2016 #14