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2016 Postmortem

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

4. His model has a massive inertia problem!

Reply to smorkingapple (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 03:32 PM

Nov 2016

You call it momentum, I call it inertia, we are in agreement here, just using different words to mean basically the same thing. The swings are too wild compared to the actual polling averages seen at, say, Huffpo that doesn't use garbage polls.

The new poll should replace the poll from the same pollster, which you see the old poll's weight go to almost zero when replaced with a newer from the same pollster, thus is really should have given her a double boost - it's not logical!!!

Huffpo (4-way):

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Highlight:

***(CVOTER/UPI (moonies)) national poll goes from Hillary +1.25% lead to Hillary +3.34% lead*** [View all] Dem2 Nov 2016 OP

C+ Poll probably replaced an older higher rated one. His model thinks momentum matters too much smorkingapple Nov 2016 #1

The Data in Post Says Otherwise Stallion Nov 2016 #2

His model has a massive inertia problem! Dem2 Nov 2016 #4

A "D" rated poll of Michigan just upped her overall odds of winning the election by 0.4% Dem2 Nov 2016 #6

Im sure 538 will drop Clinton by 5 more percentage points Doctor Jack Nov 2016 #3