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benEzra

(12,148 posts)
100. Actually, all surveys but the non-anonymous GSS have shown steady ownership or recent increase.
Sun Dec 18, 2016, 05:47 PM
Dec 2016

Pretty much the *only* survey reporting a long-term decline has been the General Social Survey conducted by the University of Chicago, which is expressly non-anonymous, conducted via in-person interviews, funded by gun control advocates (Joyce), and run by a gun control advocate. Ownership rates assessed by Pew, Gallup, and others in anonymous surveys are much higher, and actual hard data (e.g. firearms possession licenses, in states that require them like IL and MA) show increases, not decreases.

Boston Globe - Gun licenses on the Rise in Massachusetts

Illinois FOID License Holders Up 33% 2009-2013



FWIW, the FOID numbers have kept rising; I believe the number of active Illinois FOID cards as of 12/15/2015 was 1,942,008, which would be a 54% increase in FOID cards since 2009, if I have that number right. And since FOID cards correlate 1:1 with on-the-books legal ownership in IL, a 33% (or 54%) increase in valid FOID's is a commensurate increase in licensed ownership---in the GSS's own backyard.

I'll point out that these are both heavily Dem, deep-blue states, but the same trends are at work in other blue states, as well as purple swing states and red states, whether you look at all the available proxies for ownership or at anonymous self-reported ownership.

As of 9/2016, a Pew Research Center poll put the number at 44% admitting to a gun in the house, 51% saying no gun, and 5% refusing to answer the question. A 1/2016 CNN poll put the numbers about the same, with 40% saying yes and 9% refusing to answer.

Carry licensure, which isn't correlated 1:1 with ownership but is still loosely correlated, has more than doubled since 2007 and IIRC roughly quadrupled since 1999.

WSJ - Permits Soar to Allow More Concealed Guns

Here in eastern NC, my local shooting range is now jam-packed every time I go there, when it used to be fairly sparse years ago, and I have a lot of coworkers and friends who bought their first gun within the last few years, including a longtime coworker who bought his first two months ago.

It is an article of faith among gun control advocates that the GSS is the only reliable measure of gun ownership, but if you look the totality of the metrics, including hard license data, overall ownership trends do not appear to be moving in the prohibitionists' favor. And it is incontrovertible that the styles of guns people have been buying in the last 25 years are not favorable to gun control advocates' handgrip-shape and magazine-capacity crusades, either. As I mentioned upthread, the market has been moving strongly away from larger calibers and straight stocks, toward the modern-looking centerfire .22's and double-stack 9mm's that the gun control lobby wishes to ban or severely restrict.

Perhaps it is hard to see from within the cloistered DC/NY/CA bubble, but Bloomberg et al are trying to outlaw guns and magazines that are legal in Canada and much of Europe, the banning of which would be considered a serious violation of the social contract across much of the United States. If your bans have gotten only 5% to 10% compliance among owners in New York and Connecticut, just how well do you expect those bans to play in NC, WV, Texas, Ohio, Tennessee, Florida, or Michigan? It is hard to express just how repellent the NY SAFE Act and similar crap is in states with a strong culture of lawful ownership.

FWIW, there were warnings of the flaws in the current approach in Virginia's 2015 state senate races, which IIRC handed control of the Virginia legislature to the repubs:

Washington Post - Did gun control cost McAuliffe and Democrats the Virginia election?

Too bad no one inside the bubble was listening.

We are now. Unless every single brown person in America goes out and buys some guns next week. TygrBright Nov 2016 #1
I agree bravenak Nov 2016 #3
National African American Gun Association Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #33
there are more blacks gejohnston Nov 2016 #38
Im glad to hear this jack_krass Dec 2016 #73
JHFC does EVERYthing have to be about race?, but since you brought it up, yes jack_krass Dec 2016 #74
Dont read my posts then bravenak Dec 2016 #75
funny you mention that gejohnston Nov 2016 #37
Simple and sad truth Cosmocat Dec 2016 #94
I think so bravenak Nov 2016 #2
In Wisconsin it was a big deal forthemiddle Nov 2016 #4
Yes Amishman Nov 2016 #5
Here we go again. yallerdawg Nov 2016 #6
Quite a lot of Democrats are gun owners. Kentonio Nov 2016 #8
depends on whether one thinks we need more true believers or more evangelists. geek tragedy Nov 2016 #10
Of course - "economic policy." yallerdawg Nov 2016 #19
Interesting that you bring up evangelism, given that "gun control" appears to be a religion for many pablo_marmol Dec 2016 #113
Gun control has never been a core Democratic value. benEzra Nov 2016 #32
These days it's a core Democratic value. yallerdawg Nov 2016 #34
No, it's still not. About 50% of Dems support, and 50% oppose. benEzra Nov 2016 #39
What's with the NRA/rightwing talking points? yallerdawg Nov 2016 #44
Here's a fact from the FBI: 13,500 murders annually, all rifles *combined* account for 270. benEzra Nov 2016 #46
Guns was the issue? yallerdawg Nov 2016 #53
It was *an* issue in my state. A big one. benEzra Nov 2016 #54
If you are a Democrat... yallerdawg Nov 2016 #57
Legal gun owners have been threatened here at DU, linked to at this OP: friendly_iconoclast Dec 2016 #68
Promising to take laws like the NY SAFE Act nationwide *is* a threat. benEzra Dec 2016 #69
What's with your contempt for the facts? NT pablo_marmol Dec 2016 #115
Question is what's common sense Duckhunter935 Nov 2016 #56
The evening shift! yallerdawg Nov 2016 #58
Yep, some of us work Duckhunter935 Nov 2016 #60
I'm not playing "Twenty Questions" with you. yallerdawg Nov 2016 #61
This message was self-deleted by its author Duckhunter935 Nov 2016 #62
Maybe this one is busy shopping discntnt_irny_srcsm Dec 2016 #121
"Common sense gun reform" "Whatever Dianne Feinstein wants" derby378 Dec 2016 #104
That's not what makes me a democrat. hollowdweller Dec 2016 #77
Spot on. And THANK YOU. pablo_marmol Dec 2016 #112
That's in today's world. I come from a long line of Democrats who worked in the ... spin Dec 2016 #82
Our Sheriff recomends every homeowner be armed Kilgore Dec 2016 #102
A few years ago a judge recommended rural people in an Ohio country... spin Dec 2016 #106
In our case its not budget cuts. Kilgore Dec 2016 #107
Unfortunately even in an area with an extremely low crime rate ... spin Dec 2016 #109
It's tempting to say just put it on the back burner, but.. Kentonio Nov 2016 #7
I don't think nuance plays very well on this issue. nt geek tragedy Nov 2016 #11
I think you're right if the message you put out relies on nuance. Kentonio Nov 2016 #14
To use nuance, you have to *understand* the issue, which many in the DC/NY bubble apparently do not. benEzra Nov 2016 #63
Here's the problem with that hollowdweller Dec 2016 #79
why focus on specifically urban gun owners? gejohnston Nov 2016 #40
Best place to start would be to **STOP LYING** about "assault weapons". pablo_marmol Dec 2016 #117
Do the Right Thing frazzled Nov 2016 #9
What is wrong with the current federal gun control laws? gejohnston Dec 2016 #66
Possibly. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #12
how can we help them without winning elections? geek tragedy Nov 2016 #18
"But as long as it's a wedge issue we're really never going to make headway on that." NCTraveler Nov 2016 #20
In 2008 and 2012 guns weren't a big issue. geek tragedy Nov 2016 #23
Here is where those proposals go off the rails. benEzra Nov 2016 #43
There's no point in pushing it to the state level if SCOTUS will Exilednight Nov 2016 #13
Yes. lumberjack_jeff Nov 2016 #15
We might have got President Dumbya over that issue too. Buckeye_Democrat Nov 2016 #16
I guarantee in PA it was an issue. ebbie15644 Nov 2016 #17
Same in Ohio. Lots of gunnutters here, also. madinmaryland Nov 2016 #24
Yep. I saw a survey here a few years ago that indicated... Buckeye_Democrat Nov 2016 #25
It was a huge issue here in NC as well. (n/t) benEzra Nov 2016 #31
Absolutely Calculating Nov 2016 #21
it wasn't just Hillary's stances on guns ebbie15644 Nov 2016 #26
they were not being sued for the misuse of their products dsc Nov 2016 #29
The PLCAA doesn't block suits for criminal straw purchases, smuggling, or defective guns. benEzra Nov 2016 #30
And they were not protected from straw purchasing Duckhunter935 Nov 2016 #59
Nobody was buying "thousands of Guns at a time" and reselling them Lee-Lee Dec 2016 #72
"(G)un shops were selling thousands of guns at a time to individuals" Cite, please friendly_iconoclast Dec 2016 #87
No cite or links after a week? It's obvious that claim is bullshit... friendly_iconoclast Dec 2016 #95
yes this and the anti-abortion crowd. n/t. okieinpain Nov 2016 #22
I think it did play a part in this defeat, and I tried to talk earlier to DU about that. Yo_Mama Nov 2016 #27
Yes. The truth is, Americans simply dont want government telling them what to do. Warren DeMontague Nov 2016 #28
Americans don't like being told what to do, but they do like the government telling others what to geek tragedy Nov 2016 #36
That's sort of my point, exactly. Warren DeMontague Nov 2016 #45
our party's issue isn't so much from people trying to regulate geek tragedy Nov 2016 #48
Certainly, and I wouldn't argue that we need to do away with things like building safety or the EPA. Warren DeMontague Nov 2016 #50
not only that, gejohnston Nov 2016 #41
+1 flying rabbit Dec 2016 #96
Well there were those who sarisataka Nov 2016 #35
Disagree, I say we double-down on sensible gun control, radius777 Nov 2016 #42
Define "sensible gun control." benEzra Nov 2016 #51
Obama didn't campaign on gun control though Calculating Nov 2016 #52
Gun control is an urban/suburban (metro) issue, radius777 Nov 2016 #64
So what happens if you get your wish? benEzra Dec 2016 #71
Democrats cease to become players in national politics, that's what happens friendly_iconoclast Dec 2016 #88
Echoes of the Temperance party. (n/t) benEzra Dec 2016 #89
Agreed samir.g Dec 2016 #86
Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2016 #47
losing elections doesn't save a single child nt geek tragedy Nov 2016 #49
Losing the election and getting no gun control at all Calculating Nov 2016 #55
windmills? that sounds so ... 2015 0rganism Nov 2016 #65
Well, more than 2.5 million more people voted for Hill than the Don, but apparently.... Hekate Dec 2016 #67
So you don't, in fact, want to ban AR-15's and over-10-round magazines? benEzra Dec 2016 #70
"You"? You are holding me responsible for the mass insanity of this nation? Do you personally want Hekate Dec 2016 #78
This message was self-deleted by its author Duckhunter935 Dec 2016 #80
This is *exactly* the type of misunderstanding that is so harmful to Dems on this issue. benEzra Dec 2016 #83
So I own military-grade weaponry. So fucking what. derby378 Dec 2016 #105
Well for the first time ever Flavius Aetius Dec 2016 #81
I don't get it then - what does an "assault weapons ban" do if it is not taking away someone's guns? jmg257 Dec 2016 #85
Irritate us about losing the election and add scant substance Kolesar Dec 2016 #76
Yep, there is. There is also a temporary forum for discussing things that hurt Dems last month... benEzra Dec 2016 #84
Yes hueymahl Dec 2016 #90
Kick. **Fantastic** OP geek tragedy! pablo_marmol Dec 2016 #91
Democrats for the last few decades have been strong on gun control and week on a social safety net killbotfactory Dec 2016 #92
This is **precisely** what liberal criminologists James Wright, Peter Rossi pablo_marmol Dec 2016 #93
The only constant is change, so I disagree that we should view this as an unsolvable issue or... CBHagman Dec 2016 #97
Change... benEzra Dec 2016 #98
Gun ownership itself is actually down quite dramatically. CBHagman Dec 2016 #99
Actually, all surveys but the non-anonymous GSS have shown steady ownership or recent increase. benEzra Dec 2016 #100
It's a civil liberties issue. MarvinGardens Dec 2016 #101
Background checks, yes. Semi-auto ban, no. Magazine ban, no. derby378 Dec 2016 #103
Yes. We can elections and save lives with "No Federal gun bans whatsoever" aikoaiko Dec 2016 #108
Kick. Great OP. NT pablo_marmol Dec 2016 #110
Are we tilting at windmills? No. We're cutting our throats. NT pablo_marmol Dec 2016 #111
LOTS of supposition here... LaydeeBug Dec 2016 #114
Hillary's position on gun control was politically naive outside of CA, NY and IL HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #116
Yes we are. Bans don't work. discntnt_irny_srcsm Dec 2016 #118
Kicking for the benefit of members who believe that gun restriction is a political winner. pablo_marmol Dec 2016 #119
Gun restrictionists have become the secular "Bible thumpers" of the Democratic Party: friendly_iconoclast Dec 2016 #120
I think probably yes, from a purely pragmatic standpoint. Crunchy Frog Dec 2016 #122
Hurts the party's efforts to win elections, it's a wedge issue that the pukes distort & capitalize FreeStateDemocrat Dec 2016 #123
Gun control for Democrats.. virginia mountainman Dec 2016 #124
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