I think Biden could have won

[karynnj]

42. You never know the path not taken - and he would have had to beat Clinton in the primaries

I realize you state that you "think" Biden would have won. Others have said that Sanders would have won. In reality, we do not know. In the case of Biden, he was tied more tightly to Obama than Clinton was. One thing that is interesting is that he was seen as opposite of Clinton in being LESS a hawk than Obama where HRC was more hawkish. However, Biden was the point person on Iraq in the first term. He was the person who was unable to get a SOFA agreement, leading to the US removing all our military - which the Republicans blame for ISIS being able to grow. (It is very likely NO ONE could have gotten that SOFA and imagine the uproar had Obama left troops there without that protection - but I am speaking politics.)

There is less difference in backgrounds than the image makers projected. Clinton was born to a middle class Chicago area family and managed to get into Wellesley, then to Yale Law. Biden was born into a middle class family went to University of Delaware, then to Law School at Syracuse. One big difference was that Biden, at least in law school, was a pretty lazy student -- while that has never been said of Clinton. It is funny that that difference in personality, in politics, might actually work in Biden's favor (as with George Bush). (A hard point for me to accept as I personally was a serious, good student.)

Neither was born to the American elite -- and both got where they did through their personalities and intelligence. I agree that Biden seems far more accessible to lower middle class and middle class people - as does Bernie Sanders, than Hillary Clinton. The question is whether Biden, running as the third term of Obama, would have reached the disaffected, frustrated, economically depressed people who were lost in PA, MI and WI when HRC ran and it was seen as the either the third Clinton term or the third term of Obama.

During the month or so when Biden played with the idea of running, we got what was likely only a fraction of the attacks from the Clinton team that would have happened if he ran. Suddenly, there was a plethora of stories that all characterized Biden as a loose cannon, silly - even loony. This for a man who was in the Senate for decades, who ran major committees. The Onion seemed to have created a Biden meme that always was somewhat inappropriate. With many people getting their news from comedy shows, I suspect more people, if asked to name something Biden did would refer to something silly rather than his work leading the government effort against cancer, his foreign policy work, or his work in support of the economic recovery.

However, there were REAL things that would have been used against Biden. He was terrible as the Chair of the Judiciary Committee when the Clarence Thomas hearings occurred, he was the sponsor - not co-sponsor or someone who merely voted for - the crime bill from the Clinton years. Representing Delaware, he voted for every single one of the bad bankruptcy bills. Had Biden entered the race, Clinton would have thrown the kitchen sink at Biden -- as her team did against Sanders. All three of these would have put him on the defense with key Democratic constituencies. (It is impossible to mentally play out how a Clinton/Biden/Sanders primary would have played out. It might depend on how much of Sander's support was really Anybody but Clinton. You could make a case that any of the three win. )

Imagine that Biden did win that primary, which would have been nasty. Clinton supporters mention how all the differences spelled out in the primary hurt Clinton. However, Biden, who actually was the sponsor of legislation protecting women, would have been labeled negatively by the Clintons because of how Anita Hill was treated. Biden would likely not have abandoned Obama on TPP, which Clinton would have demonized and with the bankruptcy bills and the crime bills, it is very posibble that Biden's jovial, outgoing, extroverted personality would not have been enough to win those same rust belt. Not to mention -- given that HRC said in her book and elsewhere that she was against pulling out all the troops in Iraq. She would have set up that issue (which the Republicans tried to use against her by tying her to Obama) for the Republicans.

I suspect that Biden's decision not to run was partly that emotionally after the death of his son, he was not up to doing everything that needed to be done. I suspect that the certainty that he would face a knock down fight with the Clintons was a major deterrent because it could have lost what then was seen as an election we were favored in and cause a war within the party. That Obama had made his preference clear at least by 2013.