NJ Special Election Could Hurt Democratic Voter Turn Out in October AND November

[tabbycat31]

8. NJ has no fault vote by mail

It was first in effect in 2009 and typically the VBM numbers are pretty low. Since I have a legislative district spreadsheet in front of me (I'm in the process of calculating how many votes a state senate candidate needs to win). In this particular district (to which half of it was hit hard by Sandy last year and changed vote numbers), there are 128789 registered voters. Last year (peak of VBM so far) there were 8052 ballots cast by mail (overall turnout 69%). Sandy might have increased VBM last year. In non presidential years, the numbers have been 4532, 3850, and 2876 respectively (governor, congress, state senate at the top of the ticket). Usually Republicans have a VBM advantage. For a November election, typically VBM ballots will drop in mid-September.

The legislature passed early (in-person) voting this year but Christie vetoed it.