2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Favorability Ratings Show Hillary Clinton Is Unelectable and Bernie Sanders Wins a General Election [View all]Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)The anti-Hillary crowd frankly got lucky in 2008 but doesn't seem to grasp how fortunate they were. Now they are desperately trying it again with Sanders, even though none of the variables that barely pushed Obama over the top are present this time.
Obama forged a mathematical path to the nomination via astute emphasis on the smaller primaries and caucus states. Hillary and her team were caught napping, following a traditional path and assuming margins in the major states would suffice. Full credit to Obama, his team, and supporters for the strategic victory.
But it's laughable to ignore the situational variables that tipped 2008 but have no relevance this time. When I visit this site nowadays it's like the world is in reverse. Bernie is dominating. Unskew the polls. Oh yes, I remember that wonderful exercise...99.99% pure.
Comedy, that is.
If the polling unskewers made the actual betting odds, work would be optional within a month. Wait a minute, it's already optional. Thanks to Apple stock and other matters. Never mind.
This is Breeder's Cup week. Belief in Bernie's chances is like sticking the outrider horse in the gate. DemocratSinceBirth will absolutely rape anyone who takes that $1000 bet.
Hillary should have been the 2008 nominee. Any Democrat cruises in that environment. Obama the more personally favorable chap would be sitting in the wings waiting to win semi handily this time. For one thing, Hillary wouldn't have forfeited the vital few percent among white working class men, like Obama has. She is actually damaged by his pathetic showing among that group.
Those favorable ratings for Hillary are not cement. Americans love winners. Once Hillary wins the states on the way to the nomination, and the nomination itself, she earns positive mention. And she smiles a lot. Raises her hand in triumph. Magazine covers. Now we like her. At least more people will. Not here, the stubborn joint. Then the polling suggests she is the favorite. Now even more people set aside their dislike, wanting to be associated with the likely victor. Complicated stuff, I concede.
I'm not fully confident in Hillary come November. She'll do great. The electorate might barely resist. I don't discount the fact she'll have a difficult time budging 50/50 favorable numbers in crucial states. Bernie would fare much worse, no matter how it looks today. The nation is 32% self identifying conservative and 21% self identifying liberal. He would be twisted like a Gumby doll by all that GOP cash. Hillary doesn't have great upside like 52% but could win a head bob, the Clinton specialty.