2016 Postmortem

Bonobo

(29,257 posts)

45. The tremendous outlier in your "aggregate" is oddly FOX poll.

Fri Dec 25, 2015, 05:23 AM

Dec 2015

It has a very weird looking number showing Hillary beating Trump by something like 10 points whereas the same FOX poll shows a tright race between Sanders and Trump. That data throws your aggregate way out of whack.

I don't want to sound suspicious, far from me to cast aspersions on such a reliable source, but the fact is that the FOX results stand out like a sore thumb in their oddness. One would ALMOST get the idea that the FOX and Repubs want Hillary to be the candidate.

Isn't the weird?

Sorry, though, rather than this aggregate, which includes the suspicious FOX news poll, I think I would go with the more believable sources.

Furthermore, your aggregate includes polling that puts Clinton VS> Trump but does not include Sanders VS. Trump. IOW, you are comparing apples and oranges. Let's look at the 3 polls which include both candidates.

Quinnipiac
FOX News
PPP (D)

In the Quinnipiac, it shows Hillary beating Trump by 47 to 40 and Sanders beating him by 51 to 38. The PPP shows Hillary beating Trump by 3 and Sanders losing to Trump by 2, probably both very much in the MOE. The Fox News Poll alone is the outlier showing winning by 11 and Sanders losing by 5. With a margin like that, and the source, I think you would be reasonable if you agreed that it probably represents some nefarious agenda.

Sorry, a bit busy right now roasting chicken and those were my initial observations after looking at the details of your aggregate.

Once again, merry christmas.

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Highlight:

Why should we vote for a candidate with LESS of a chance to win the GE? [View all] Bonobo Dec 2015 OP

Hold on I am still thinking... Kalidurga Dec 2015 #1

It's her turn! Furrfu Dec 2015 #2

Posting this over and over is persuading redstateblues Dec 2015 #3

And yet Hillary's alleged ability to win the GE is touted as her strength. Bonobo Dec 2015 #8

"All AVAILABLE evidence suggests Sanders is more likely to win it." BeanMusical Dec 2015 #28

The incessant posting of polling is not either. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #9

Actually I find that to be rather disgusting with the goal of depressing turnout. Bonobo Dec 2015 #13

That is exactly correct. The media loves talking polls concerning Bernie because if people believe JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #16

Really? chervilant Dec 2015 #24

+100 -nt- 99th_Monkey Dec 2015 #39

Polling is virtually worthless at this point, elleng Dec 2015 #4

Sounds like an excellent candidate. He would have my full support as well. Bonobo Dec 2015 #5

Sanders/O'Malley sounds like a good ticket HoneychildMooseMoss Dec 2015 #7

I could live with that. Ken Burch Dec 2015 #15

I'm holding out for Sanders/Warren as my first choice 99th_Monkey Dec 2015 #40

+1 and JustAnotherGen Dec 2015 #53

but the hillarians post dozens of them every week Doctor_J Dec 2015 #63

Political Imprinting. More known ... personality/gender/time in the public eye. Habit, IMO. libdem4life Dec 2015 #6

Well said. nt 99th_Monkey Dec 2015 #41

.... libdem4life Dec 2015 #58

Because she is a woman? Vincardog Dec 2015 #10

You beat me to it. Merry Xmas 840high Dec 2015 #11

Uer welcome. Happy X mass Vincardog Dec 2015 #14

a white male with her baggage and voting record would have no chance in the democratic primary Doctor_J Dec 2015 #67

...well, she did buy all those pantsuits... Ken Burch Dec 2015 #12

She could donate them to charity. Enthusiast Dec 2015 #22

They'd make good rags-you know, to wipe things! Divernan Dec 2015 #30

Thanks. What a great post! Enthusiast Dec 2015 #35

You are most welcome. Merry Christmas/Joyous Festivus, etc. Divernan Dec 2015 #36

I have the same exact impression. Enthusiast Dec 2015 #42

You are trying to persuade yourself and other bernistas murielm99 Dec 2015 #17

Republicans will bombard her and have the FBI go after her Rosa Luxemburg Dec 2015 #20

Have you seen this? Seymour Hersh's article about our providing arms via Turkey to the JDPriestly Dec 2015 #21

Confidence isn't everything.... Spitfire of ATJ Dec 2015 #27

We may not be, but Bernie sure is. artislife Dec 2015 #31

Not according to every reputable poll. n/t murielm99 Dec 2015 #33

Those archaic things? pfft. nt artislife Dec 2015 #34

Yeah, online polls are totally more reputable than JunkyardAngel83 Dec 2015 #37

Just hours old and already a cynic on this board... artislife Dec 2015 #51

Cherry picking polls much? 99th_Monkey Dec 2015 #44

No, actually, I am having a merry Christmas. murielm99 Dec 2015 #59

Thank you. Back at you 99th_Monkey Dec 2015 #61

Recommended. H2O Man Dec 2015 #18

George McGovern redux. Hoyt Dec 2015 #19

Well see, that's why she'll need a billion or two "donated" to her campaign. hedda_foil Dec 2015 #23

The people I think, are fed up enough with the corruption to finally want to do Dustlawyer Dec 2015 #25

Because it makes the DC Villagers happy. Spitfire of ATJ Dec 2015 #26

And wall street Doctor_J Dec 2015 #66

You can't have it both ways. People say Bernie hasn't had media attention, pnwmom Dec 2015 #29

Can someone please provide the empirical evidence for this observation in light of this: DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #32

Have you seen the polls showing Sanders does better VS Trump? Bonobo Dec 2015 #38

I supplied aggregate polling: DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #43

The tremendous outlier in your "aggregate" is oddly FOX poll. Bonobo Dec 2015 #45

The whole purpose of aggregate polling... DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #46

Apologies, I updated my post while you were writing. Bonobo Dec 2015 #47

If you throw out the FOX polls DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #48

DSB, you have made a good point. The results are rather less clear than I claimed. Bonobo Dec 2015 #49

DSB = no response. Bonobo Dec 2015 #57

The predictions markets, the gaming markets, and the voters themselves suggest Clinton is... DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #71

Because those polls are meaningless rjsquirrel Dec 2015 #50

Well, that's just like, your opinion man. nt firebrand80 Dec 2015 #52

On your first point... Mike Nelson Dec 2015 #54

FIXED DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #56

Good question. I support Hillary, who obviously has better chances in the GE. DanTex Dec 2015 #55

because general election polls this far out are worthless? onenote Dec 2015 #60

I agree Andy823 Dec 2015 #62

I'll tell you how this is going to play out. Vinca Dec 2015 #64

there aren't any valid arguments for her over Sanders Doctor_J Dec 2015 #65

Or one of the 60% of Democrats who support her? brooklynite Dec 2015 #69

DINOS, people desperate to vote for a woman, and those who have given up trying to save Doctor_J Dec 2015 #70

PS: nice gif! snot Dec 2015 #68