2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Why should we vote for a candidate with LESS of a chance to win the GE? [View all]DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The whole purpose of aggregate polling is to eliminate the cherry picking of polling to provide an average of all the polls. Would you agree that is a sound principle based on Bayesian probabilities?
Would you agree that the predictive markets:
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner/
contradict your observation that ""...All AVAILABLE evidence suggests Sanders is more likely to win it." ?
Would you agree that the gaming markets:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
contradict your observation that ""...All AVAILABLE evidence suggests Sanders is more likely to win it." ?
Would you agree that the one of the nation's premier statisticians:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
contradict your observation that ""...All AVAILABLE evidence suggests Sanders is more likely to win it." ?
Would you agree that the voters themselves;
contradict your observation that ""...All AVAILABLE evidence suggests Sanders is more likely to win it." ?
Thank you in advance for answering all my question. I am certain you will provide data to support all your conclusions.
"Once again, merry christmas." to you.