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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Why should we vote for a candidate with LESS of a chance to win the GE? [View all]DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)48. If you throw out the FOX polls
If you throw out the FOX polls then you are left with two candidates , according to the aggregate, running about the same against their GOP opponents. That is a little bit different than your original argument:
"All AVAILABLE evidence suggests Sanders is more likely to win it."
I would suggest as a tie breaker we look at predictive markets:
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner/
gaming markets:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
the nation's premier statistician:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
and the voters themselves:
Would you or would you not agree that looking at "ALL (the) available evidence" could lead one to a different conclusion than the one you have drawn?
Thank you in advance.
Happy Holidays
DSB
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Why should we vote for a candidate with LESS of a chance to win the GE? [View all]
Bonobo
Dec 2015
OP
Actually I find that to be rather disgusting with the goal of depressing turnout.
Bonobo
Dec 2015
#13
That is exactly correct. The media loves talking polls concerning Bernie because if people believe
JonLeibowitz
Dec 2015
#16
Political Imprinting. More known ... personality/gender/time in the public eye. Habit, IMO.
libdem4life
Dec 2015
#6
a white male with her baggage and voting record would have no chance in the democratic primary
Doctor_J
Dec 2015
#67
Have you seen this? Seymour Hersh's article about our providing arms via Turkey to the
JDPriestly
Dec 2015
#21
Well see, that's why she'll need a billion or two "donated" to her campaign.
hedda_foil
Dec 2015
#23
The people I think, are fed up enough with the corruption to finally want to do
Dustlawyer
Dec 2015
#25
Can someone please provide the empirical evidence for this observation in light of this:
DemocratSinceBirth
Dec 2015
#32
DSB, you have made a good point. The results are rather less clear than I claimed.
Bonobo
Dec 2015
#49
The predictions markets, the gaming markets, and the voters themselves suggest Clinton is...
DemocratSinceBirth
Dec 2015
#71
DINOS, people desperate to vote for a woman, and those who have given up trying to save
Doctor_J
Dec 2015
#70