Interesting polling insight into why Biden might be leading - and why his message is what it is. [View all]

[Drunken Irishman]

Digging a bit into the latest CBS News poll on the Democratic nomination and there are some telling numbers that may explain why A) Biden is leading and B) why his message is being crafted the way it is.

You can find the breakdown of the poll here.

Overall, Biden leads the field with 31% of the vote - Warren is second at 17 and Sanders 16. Harris is the only other candidate polling above ten-percent (right at 10%).

75% of Democrats think Biden will probably beat Trump. Only 2% think he's a long-shot. The only other candidate who comes closest in the 'will probably beat Trump' category is Sanders, and it's not very close. 51% say he probably would win.

This does hammer home the idea that Biden is perceived to be the candidate who can best beat Trump - and this is an important factor, as 78% of Democrats think beating Trump is extremely important when it comes to whether they support a candidate.

With that out of the way, here's a look at messaging and what could explain Biden's positioning nationally.

48% of Democrats want the nominee to focus only on issues and stay above the insults and ignore it. That's a significant number, but it's not a majority. In fact, 42% believe the Democratic nominee should fight back if insulted, though not start any insults. However, 9% want the nominee to take on Trump directly and lob insults themselves. Not a big number, but combined with the other 42% and a majority of Democrats want the nominee to go after Trump, either preemptively, or in retaliation - something I think Biden does well.

45% of Democrats want the nominee a progressive/liberal - which is significant, especially when only 27% want the nominee to be a moderate/centrist. Again, though, we're not seeing a majority here. 28% say it doesn't matter - and that's the key finding here. When you couple that with the 28% who want a moderate/centrist, it becomes clear - 55% of Democrats would be perfectly fine nominating a moderate. Conversely, 73% would be fine nominating a progressive. But at the end of the day, ideological purism isn't a deciding factor for a huge chunk of Democrats. Many progressives in the party are unlikely to be turned off by Biden if he wins the nomination, and that again plays into his strengths.

60% of Democrats also do not care what the candidate's age is - something that absolutely helps both Biden and Bernie. In fact, 9% say they want an older candidate (though, older is not a definitive age - just older in general terms). So, nearly 70% either want an older candidate or don't care what their age is. Youth is NOT necessarily an asset in the primary (like I think it was for Obama in 2008).

65% of Democrats wants the potential next Democratic president to work with Republicans to get things done - while only 35% want them to get things done without the GOP. This is significant because it goes to the heart of Biden's campaign messaging. And it seems to be the correct call.

69% of Democrats also want the focus to be on beating Trump in 2020 - not a candidate who talks about impeaching Trump.

Still, there are areas where Biden's message stands in contrast to the party - though, the divide isn't significant.

47% want the nominee to focus on returning the country the way it was before Trump - while 53% want a more progressive agenda than what was advanced under Obama.

Also, 67% of Democrats want a nominee who motivates Democrats who stayed home last go around, over 33% who want a nominee that attempts to convince Trump voters to vote Democratic.

Interesting numbers, regardless. I think it shows Biden's support is pretty strong, as his messaging does appear to be aligning with the party. Whether all that changes, though, remains to be seen.