Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Bernie invoking Hillary [View all]karynnj
(59,503 posts)In an open year, it is completely atypical for there to be so many pledged superdelegates - all to the same person. However, if you look at 2000, one thing that made Bradley's challenge less successful is that many Senators from the liberal wing - notably Kennedy - who politically were likely closer to Bradley endorsed Gore saying he had "earned" their support as VP.
In 2008, one factor that enabled Obama to narrowly eke out a win over Clinton was that he was able to get a few prominent endorsements prior to superTuesday - including Kennedy and Kerry. Those endorsements, a well run Obama campaign and Clinton errors were all needed to derail what had been seen as an inevitable nomination.
I would bet that the Clinton team worked very hard - likely starting as early as 2013 when HRC left the SD to convince superdelegates to endorse her. Her WH meeting with Obama was seen by many as him tacitly endorsing her as his likely successor - in spite of his strong personal connection to Biden.
As to Bernie, I remember when what I heard in his hometown was that he "might" win Vermont. He was likely HELPED by the fact that there was no opposition to HRC after O'Malley dropped out. While it is obvious that he developed an enthusiastic base supporting him and his policies, he won some votes only because the choice was him or Clinton. Even so, he NEVER was in the position of having more pledged delegates. Therefore even if the SD had no vote (just whatever support their endorsement would have due to their own credibility), HRC would still have won the nomination.
It also ignores that SD can - and do - change their position. In 2008, there were actually a large number of SD including people like Pelosi, who said they would announce for the winner of the pledged delegate count -- because they would not overturn the decision of those participating in the primary process. If Bernie would have won the majority of the pledged delegates -- he very likely would have had enough of the pledged delegates move to support him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden