Predict It now has Elizabeth Warren as the favorite to win the Dem nomination

[Quixote1818]

9. If you think one miss vs a long track record of more wins than losses helps your argument

you really need to go take a statistics course. Yes they missed the last Presidential race but pretty much the entire world missed that election. Hillary still won the popular vote and lost by razor thin margins in 3 rustbelt states that polling had her winning by comfortable margins. Betting odds are only as good just before an election as the polling is. Does this guarantee Warren will win? Of course not, she just has the best odds currently based on the information at hand. Anything could change in a week or two with a scandal or a major foot in the mouth by one of the candidates. The point however, is that based on probabilities, statistics and centuries worth of track records, betting sites do a better than average job of determining outcomes so it's worth at least looking at what they are saying and watching the movements as the months pass.