Not only is Gabbard 98+% likely to qualify for the November debate, but now she's only 2 polls short [View all]

[Celerity]

of qualifying for the December debate as well. There might be only 6 in the December debate, with Gabbard one of them. THAT is not a good look IMHO. She will be able to cause chaos far beyond what she could do in a 12 person stage, let alone if she was not even there.

She was utterly dead in the water, with literally ZERO qualifying polls for November (let alone the higher standard of December) before Clinton went after her via inference (and cemented ('if the nesting doll fits') by her staffer, as if anyone could not figure out who Clinton was talking about.) Now she is polling above or even with HARRIS in some polls, ffs. She was tied for fifth (only trailing Sanders, Warren, Biden, and Pete) in a qualifying NH poll, with 2/3rds more support than Sen. Harris. She beat Harris in the new PA poll too.

Ok, enough on that.

I also have to add that it is MADNESS to think that a 3rd party run by Gabbard will help us (as I have seen posited here.)

She will more than likely run (IF she goes 3rd party) on the GREEN PARTY ticket. There is some extremely faulty logic that Rethugs will vote for her. NO, they will not, there is almost nothing in her platform, let alone the Green platform, that RWers will support. She is overall very LW, almost Sanderite. People are mistakenly thinking the Rethugs using her as a wedge amongst us means some will vote for her. No, they detest almost all of her platform. They just happen to like her slagging off our party and also having a go at Clinton.


Here is a worst case scenario that more fully fleshes this out

Gabbard would have a cakewalk in the Green Primary, Stein is not running and Howie Hawkins is weak. If Warren wins the nomination, there is a really good chance Howard Schultz steps is as an indie too (I do not think Bloomberg will unless Bernie is the nominee, which will not happen), and the Libertarians might have a POOR candidate (Johnson was superb in terms of numbers.)

The Libertarians draw mostly from the Rethugs, and in FAR greater numbers overall compared to the Greens, especially in 2016. This is often overlooked (as it doesn't fit certain narratives), but if you add the 5.2 MILLION votes Gary Johnson and McMullin (a few state indie run) got to Trump, he then beats Clinton, not just in the EC, but also in the POPULAR vote as well, even if you give Clinton ALL 1.46 million Green votes.

With that data/positing in mind, now put Tulsi on a Green ticket, and it is BIG trouble, especially if Bernie and Warren go bonkers on each other in the primary campaign and Bernie does a tepid Warren endorsement, or worse, refuses to endorse her at all.

Tulsi as a Green and Schultz as an indie alone could easily draw a combined 6, 7, 8, even 10 (or more) million votes combined (1980 John Anderson, in 2016-adjusted % numbers, would have pulled over 10 million, Perot, close to 30 million based off 1992) and IF the Libertarians field a shit candidate (they always do fuckall without Gary Johnson and he is NOT running this time), and the other RW 3rd party/indie candidates also do meh, it is (at that point) quite possibly and quite disastrously, Rump's election to lose, especially IF we also bollocks up the impeachment and the economy does NOT go into recession.

Tulsi will pull (in terms of her types of voters) almost all from us, or the types who would never voter for either party, Schultz would probably pull 75/80% from us (the moderate/conservative voting types who detest Warren and hate Bernie even more), and 20/25% from Rethug Rump haters.

Caveat: THAT ALL is a WORST case scenario, I am NOT saying it will happen.

If Biden wins the nomination, then no Schultz (and no Bloomberg, who is not really a variable anyway as Bernie has no chance and that is the only way he might get in), but Tulsi (as a Green top of ticket) will gain more votes from us that she would if Warren was the nominee. That said, there is NO way will she pull more than what what her combined with Schultz (let alone Bloomberg) would have pulled if Warren (let alone Bernie) was the nominee, so it will be less of an effect overall on net.

But NO, it is NOT A GOOD THING for Gabbard to run 3rd party!!



here is the December Debate update