Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
Editorials & Other Articles
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: So many of the anti-Bernie attacks are about what "other people" will think. [View all]thesquanderer
(12,263 posts)4. Are you talking about polls? Or something else?
As I posted in an earlier reply to you where you talked about this...
* Michigan, Univ. of Wis/State Journal this month, Sanders up 7 over Trump, MoE of 3.
* Florida, Florida Atlantic University last month, Sanders up by 6 with a MoE of 2.6.
So yeah, Sanders has had polls where he beats Trump in swing states, outside the MoE.
* Florida, Florida Atlantic University last month, Sanders up by 6 with a MoE of 2.6.
So yeah, Sanders has had polls where he beats Trump in swing states, outside the MoE.
But you've prompted me to also look historically, and sure enough... In 2016
Michigan: Sanders was favored over Trump by between 12 and 22 points (all outside MoE)
Wisconsin: Sanders was favored over Trump by between 9 and 24 points (all outside MoE)
Pennsylvania was closer. Out of seven polls, Sanders only won outside of the MoE (i.e. by more than double the MoE figure) half the time (3 outright wins, one right at the MoE with a 6 point lead in a poll with a 3 pt MoE)... and one of the times he actually lost (though within MoE).
So there's some more evidence that Sanders can beat Trump in these states. (Hillary also did well in these head-to-heads in the same time period, though consistently less well than Bernie.)
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
36 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations
So many of the anti-Bernie attacks are about what "other people" will think. [View all]
DanTex
Feb 2020
OP
Sanders has no historical swing state appeal outside of MOE, Biden has the most
uponit7771
Feb 2020
#1
I'm confused, are you looking for really historical or for recent? But either way...
thesquanderer
Feb 2020
#7
Oh, he rarely bests Biden. That wasn't the criteria I was looking at, because...
thesquanderer
Feb 2020
#18
There's no historical data, last 3 months where Sanders is beating Trump beyond MOE or
uponit7771
Feb 2020
#19
MOST of the swing states? How many, and which ones? More qualifiers! But to start...
thesquanderer
Feb 2020
#20
Ah, the whole shebang! I was focussed on the big three that would have made a difference in 2016.
thesquanderer
Feb 2020
#26
Wiki narrows it to 4 and the last 3 months Sanders isn't beating Biden vs Trump, Ohio is lost imho
uponit7771
Feb 2020
#27
Right, I've never contested that "Sanders isn't beating Biden vs Trump" only that...
thesquanderer
Feb 2020
#29
Don't have to be at top of ticket Biden best all candidates in swing states against Red Don ...
uponit7771
Feb 2020
#17
Maybe now but Swing state polling goes back to pre primary post convention. Sanders isn't
uponit7771
Feb 2020
#33
Better than what? luke warm? Again, snapshot data doesn't count. If there was a 3 month ...
uponit7771
Feb 2020
#35
That 2/3 is more than feel that way about Biden, Bloomberg, or ANY other candidate.
thesquanderer
Feb 2020
#10
If he's doing THAT poorly among Democrats... he doesn't stand a chance in the General Election.
NurseJackie
Feb 2020
#11
Look at those numbers again., He is NOT doing that poorly among Dems, because...
thesquanderer
Feb 2020
#12
If you're not going to vote for anyone unless more than 2/3 of Dems are comfortable with them...
thesquanderer
Feb 2020
#15
"Other people" are the people I had to turn out when I was a Party Ward Committeeman...
brooklynite
Feb 2020
#13