Established Systems

[PETRUS]

12. Some thoughts:

In my opinion, the presence of a movement-style campaign (or campaigns, plural) has as much to do with the social context in which it arises as it has to do with the presence of a charismatic leader, although I suspect both are necessary ingredients. To some extent, I think certain types of leaders emerge when there are existing tensions. That is to say, the leader gives form and voice to sentiments that were there already; he or she doesn't create the tensions, he or she only makes them more visible. In such situations, and I think this applies now, one election alone - regardless of the outcome - isn't likely to resolve the tensions. Actions subsequent to the election (including but not limited to governance) might calm or inflame the tensions, but the election itself is unlikely to "settle" anything.

To get uncomfortably specific, there are people saying that a Bernie Sanders nomination will fracture the Democrats and doom the party's prospects in November, and there are people saying that failing to nominate Sanders - especially if he goes to the convention with a plurality - will have that effect. As nearly as I can tell, both of those opinions are largely restricted to a certain kind of political cognoscenti (well represented on DU), and not nearly as common among the general population (including regular voters who aren't as caught up in the meta-conversation as the media and DU). The vast majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning people I talk to about this year's election do have (sometimes severe) opinions about the various candidates, but intend to vote for the nominee no matter who it is, and some of them don't care at all who the nominee is. I truly believe the party could fracture and fail, or unite and win, with any number of the candidates. That is to say, I think it could go either way regardless of who the nominee is. The identities and behavior of the candidates is a factor, but only one among several considerations and not necessarily the most critical.

PS. I also started to type out some thoughts on "establishments" and "democracy," but I've already written twice as many words as you see above in this post, and I'm not done. So I think I'll cancel that plan, or perhaps just postpone it.