It's all about the delegates now... [View all]

[SidDithers]

and the delegate math just doesn't favour Bernie.

Winning MI by 1%, as Bernie did in 2016, might be a moral victory, but would net only a couple delegates.

Bernie needs a resounding victory in MI, between 10% and 20%, in order try to claw into Biden's delegate lead.

Similarly for WA. Narrow victories won't do it, because Biden's going to win big in MS and could net 15-20 delegates.

There are 365 delegates available on Mar 10. (including Democrats Abroad)

If Bernie is a net delegate loser or even a slim net delegate winner (less than +20) on Mar 10, then his campaign is done.

If Bernie is a moderate delegate winner (+40 to +50) then his campaign will live until Mar 17.

If Bernie is a big delegate winner on Mar 10 (+80 to +100) then his campaign comes off life support and he's back in the race.

I believe that the results from Mar 10 will fall into the first category.

Sid