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Democratic Primaries

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SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 12:24 AM Mar 2020

It's all about the delegates now... [View all]

and the delegate math just doesn't favour Bernie.

Winning MI by 1%, as Bernie did in 2016, might be a moral victory, but would net only a couple delegates.

Bernie needs a resounding victory in MI, between 10% and 20%, in order try to claw into Biden's delegate lead.

Similarly for WA. Narrow victories won't do it, because Biden's going to win big in MS and could net 15-20 delegates.

There are 365 delegates available on Mar 10. (including Democrats Abroad)

If Bernie is a net delegate loser or even a slim net delegate winner (less than +20) on Mar 10, then his campaign is done.

If Bernie is a moderate delegate winner (+40 to +50) then his campaign will live until Mar 17.

If Bernie is a big delegate winner on Mar 10 (+80 to +100) then his campaign comes off life support and he's back in the race.

I believe that the results from Mar 10 will fall into the first category.

Sid

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Sid you did it...good. This is a great post...and went through it carefully and Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #1
Let's revisit this on Mar 11, see how I did... SidDithers Mar 2020 #4
Thank you for your analysis, Sid. Cha Mar 2020 #2
Heya Cha... SidDithers Mar 2020 #5
Edge of my seat again.. Cha Mar 2020 #7
"Joementum" like the Blue Wave, will not be denied. oasis Mar 2020 #3
The Bible (Nate Silver's 538) agrees SCantiGOP Mar 2020 #6
Let's make it so! sheshe2 Mar 2020 #8
We've come to the same conclusion RDavisJ1 Mar 2020 #9
Kick...nt SidDithers Mar 2020 #10
Good analysis, Sid. MineralMan Mar 2020 #11
How many delegates do you think Biden will get tomorrow? nt showblue22 Mar 2020 #12
Pure guess - I say Biden is +75 delegates on the night... SidDithers Mar 2020 #14
Not a bad guess... SidDithers Mar 2020 #15
Kick & recommended. William769 Mar 2020 #13
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