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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » Here's How Many Bernie Sa... » Reply #70
Undecided 37%
Elizabeth Warren15%
Joe Biden14%
Kamala Harris10%
Pete Buttigieg8%

Response to crazytown (Reply #62)

Thu Apr 18, 2019, 06:42 PM

70. but 25% is almost triple the rate of Obama to McCain primary switches, and around double

 

the amount of McCain to Obama switches.

Also, look at the 'other' Dem primary voters, who had a horrific fall-off, a full 53% did not vote for Obama. 44% of those voted McCain and another 9% did not vote.

The Hillary primary voters and the 'other' Democratic primary voters fall-offs or outright switches positively dwarf the Republican defectors, who only had 13% switch to Obama and 4% non voters in terms of the McCain primary supporters, and then the 'other' Republican primary voters who switched even less, 9% voting for Obama and 4% who became non voters.

That last group of Democrats (the 'other' primary voters) defected at a rated over 400% greater than the same cohort for Republicans. If we had had those levels of defections in 2016 Trump would have probably won the popular vote (only a 1.1% switch from Hillary to the orange bloat gives him that) and won the Electoral College by as much as 350-188 (which, BTW, is the absolute MAX, perfect scenario ceiling for Trump in 2020 as well). That 350 is also OUR max possible in 2020 (that is giving us a few stretches, ie. AZ, GA, sweeping the closest swing states, and losing the not so close swingers, IA, MO, and OH) unless something huge blows up on Trump (which is a possibility always with that fuck).
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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guillaumeb Apr 18 OP
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crazytown Apr 18 #62
LineLineLineLineReply but 25% is almost triple the rate of Obama to McCain primary switches, and around double
Celerity Apr 18 #70
crazytown Apr 18 #75
George II Apr 20 #90
lapucelle Apr 18 #55
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