January 26, 2015

The Fate of Ukraine

Events this week may finally wake up Kyiv to the reality it is facing. Ukraine is at war with Russia. It has been so for many months, as was obvious some time ago to those with eyes wanting to see. Ukraine’s government has not been in that group, and as military reverses mounted, hiding from painful facts has continued. In their own way, Kyiv mouthpieces have been nearly as dishonest in their depictions of the Russo-Ukrainian War as the Kremlin. In the face of mountains of contrary evidence, Kyiv insisted that the war in the Donbas has been an “anti-terrorist operation” and that the enemy found there are “terrorists” rather than the Russian soldiers that most of them are. In recent days, Moscow has dropped any pretense and is dispatching battalions across the border essentially openly. Once commonplace efforts to mask insignia identifying these units as regular Russian troops have dissipated as Vladimir Putin feels he no longer needs to hide his aggressive presence in Ukraine...

...The fall of Donetsk airport this week says a lot about Petro Poroshenko and his presidency, none of it flattering. While there was little Ukraine could have done about the loss of Crimea last spring — they were floored by Putin’s unleashing of Special War with its “little green men,” just as NATO was, and Ukraine had no desire to confront Russia head-on, thinking a wider war might be averted — Kyiv’s leadership since then deserves harsh assessment. Ham-handed summertime efforts to put pressure on Russian troops and their local proxies led to disaster at Ilovaisk, where ill-prepared and supplied Ukrainian troops and volunteers were cut to pieces. Rather than take the obvious lesson from this, that due to a lack of troops, especially battle-ready ones, Ukraine needed to establish more defensible positions in the Southeast, Kyiv did nothing of the sort.

Instead we wound up with the needless siege of Donetsk airport, an objective of no strategic value except that Poroshenko and his administration said many times that it must be held at any costs, implying Ukraine itself would be lost if this worthless heap of rubble fell to the rebels. Given such rhetoric, one might expect a no-holds barred effort to reinforce the defense, but this being Poroshenko, nothing of the sort happened. Instead the “cyborgs” bravely holding on to Donetsk airport remained outnumbered, poorly supplied, and dismally led, so their eventual defeat was only a matter of time. With astonishing stupidity, just last weekend Poroshenko, breathing fire, publicly promised that all lost Ukrainian land would be retaken, then turned around and said he was a peace president, not a war president. Then he promptly flew to Davos to hang out with the global one-percent-of-one-percent jet-set. It’s no surprise that many Ukrainian frontline soldiers hate Putin yet actively despise their own president...

...A lot of Ukrainians are angry that they have been left in the lurch by NATO, forgetting that they are not a member of the Alliance. NATO will never go to war over the Donbas and the sooner Ukrainians accept that and stop feeling sorry for themselves and get in the war, the better. To be clear: Putin has engaged in naked aggression against his neighbor, just as Milošević did against Croatia in 1991. Yet if Zagreb had approached that war as Ukraine has dealt with its current crisis, complaining instead of fighting, substituting hashtags for strategy, one-third of Croatia would still be in Serbian hands today, an eternally frozen conflict, and that country would still be decades away from membership in NATO or the EU....

...Creating Novorossiya would deprive Ukraine of any coastline, which is another reason Putin may seek to do that. It needs to be understood that, after so many needless and humiliating Ukrainian defeats, Putin is only one operational-level victory away from breaking hard-pressed Kyiv’s military in any meaningful sense. The Kremlin can already dictate its terms in the Southeast of Ukraine, and soon it will be able to exert its political will, without a full-scale invasion, over the whole shambolic country. Putin has the military means to take over all Ukraine, particularly given Russia’s total control of the air, but that would be a fool’s errand, a humanitarian nightmare coupled with an endless insurgency. We can assume the General Staff has told “the boss” what would happen in that case, and we can hope Putin is listening. More likely is the creation of Novorossiya, step by step, under the Russian tricolor, and with that the shattering of any Ukrainian conventional military capability — and political will.

After that, the partition of Ukraine will be easy. The most likely end-state would be a three-way cutting up of the country, with Novorossiya, like Crimea, being joined to the Motherland by a triumphant Putin. The middle of the country around Kyiv, still called Ukraine, would emerge a rump Russian vassal state, independent in name only, to serve as a buffer between Russia and NATO. Ukraine’s West would go its own way, by default. Consisting of an expanded East Galicia, Austrian until 1918, this is the heartland of Ukrainian nationalism, unclaimed even by Russian hardliners, who acknowledge its special status and history. Those with long memories will recall that in 1918, after the Habsburgs fell, the West did not seek immediate union with the rest of Ukraine: expect the Kremlin to “remember” this soon. West Ukraine, the remnant not eaten by the Russian shark, would soon join NATO and the EU, as the Russians off-record understand and accept...

http://20committee.com/2015/01/23/the-fate-of-ukraine/

About the author: John R. Schindler is a strategist, author, and commentator whose security-focused career has included a couple decades as both a scholar and practitioner. Previously a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, where he taught courses on security, strategy, intelligence, terrorism, and military history, before joining the NWC faculty, he spent nearly a decade with the super-secret National Security Agency as an intelligence analyst and counterintelligence officer. There’s not much he can say about that, except that he worked problems in Eastern Europe and the Middle East with a counterespionage flavor, and he collaborated closely with other government agencies who would probably prefer he didn’t mention them. He’s also served as an officer specializing in cryptology (now called information warfare for no particular reason) in the U.S. Navy Reserve. He’s been a a senior fellow of the International History Institute at Boston University and as well as the chairman of the Partnership for Peace Consortium‘s Combating Terrorism Working Group, a unique body which brings together scholars and practitioners from more than two dozen countries across Eurasia to tackle problems of terrorism, extremism, and political violence. He has lectured on terrorism and security in over twenty countries.

January 26, 2015

ICYMI: Al Qaeda's YouTube guide for jihadists

Security chiefs spooked over terror video that proves extremists are using leaks from US spy Edward Snowden to evade justice


Al Qaeda is using the leaks from US spy Edward Snowden to help its fighters evade Western surveillance technology, MailOnline can reveal.

The terrorist group has issued new video guidance based on what they have learnt about Western spying methods from the Snowden disclosures which have been made public on the internet.

The move confirms the worst fears of British and American intelligence chiefs who warned that Snowden's betrayal would play into the hands of the terrorists. The video even uses footage of news reports of the Snowden leak, highlighting how 'NSA is tracking millions of phones'.

It comes after David Cameron travelled to America to urge Barack Oabama to put pressure on US Internet giants to co-operate more fully with intelligence and security agencies in the fight against terrorism.

A seven and half minute video released by a media platform for Al Qaeda, and other jihadist groups, provides detailed graphics on how terrorists can avoid detection by what it calls the 'FBI Secret Spying technology' when using phones and computers.

It identifies Western countries, including the UK, and the computer companies that it claims works with them. And, worryingly, Al Qaeda has published a list of software packages to protect against surveillance and where to find it on the internet.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2916475/Al-Qaeda-YouTube-video-shows-jihadists-using-Snowden-leaks-evade-Western-surveillance.html

So much for his 'do no harm' intentions...I know, I know, someone will be along to tell me why the end justifies the means...

January 26, 2015

Why A Black Man's Murder Often Goes Unpunished In Los Angeles

In the State of the Union this week, President Obama noted that crime in America is down. "For the first time in 40 years," he said, "the crime rate and the incarceration rate have come down together."

But in a new book, Los Angeles Times reporter Jill Leovy cites other statistics: About 40 percent of those Americans who are murdered each year are African-American males. And in Los Angeles, where Leovy covers crime, police arrest a suspect in those killings only 38 percent of the time over the last 30 years, amounting to what she calls "impunity for the murder of black men."

In Ghettoside: A True Story of Murder in America, Leovy uses the story of a single murder to trace the loss of life and the failures of police and courts. She tells NPR's Scott Simon about the murder at the center of her book and the challenge of getting witnesses to talk.
Interview Highlights

On the 2007 murder of 18-year-old Bryant Tennelle

A car pulls up around the corner. A young black man jumps out of the car, raises his gun and shoots. Bryant is struck in the head and falls on the lawn. ... His father is a homicide detective, an RHD, which is the elite homicide unit in the LAPD. ...

The LAPD, I think, sensibly treated this case as any case. But there were some twists and turns when it went unsolved for a couple months. Frustrations mounted in the department. It was an extremely emotional case, as you might imagine, for all of Tennelle's [father's] colleagues. Eventually the case is transferred from one detective to another. The lieutenant in charge asks around and says, "Who really do we have who really knows the street, who really solves cases?" And they come up with the name of John Skaggs, who had been quietly toiling in a backwater ... solving these kinds of crimes. He has expended great effort doing thankless work on cases that no one in the city noticed at all.

On what the Tennelle murder investigation found

The [detectives] ... call it "profiling murder." And so what's happening is gang members will get in a car, they will go to the rival neighborhood to send a message and they will just look for the easiest, most likely victim they can find. And [it's] probably going to be a young black man. And if he fits the part, that's good enough. And an astonishing number of victims — I did a count in 2008 of 300-some LA homicides of the gang-related homicides, and I think something like 40 percent of the victims were this sort of a victim: non-combatant, not directly party to the quarrel that instigated the homicide, but ended up dead nonetheless.

http://www.npr.org/2015/01/24/379156732/why-a-black-man-s-murder-often-goes-unpunished-in-los-angeles

I've been pointing this out for years...Glad to see someone else is finally paying attention...

January 18, 2015

White ‘survivalist’ gunman shoots black police chief 4 times and walks free

A Sentinel, Oklahoma man who shot the town’s police chief four times on Thursday morning was allowed to walk free after questioning.

According to NewsOK.com, Police Chief Louis Ross was shot in the chest three times and once in the arm while responding to a bomb threat at a private residence. He survived with only minor injuries thanks to a borrowed bulletproof vest that he had put on only moments before.

The incident began with a 911 call around 4 a.m. on Thursday, said Sentinel Mayor Sam Dlugonski. A caller reported that a bomb had been planted in Sentinel Community Action Center, home of the local Head Start program.

The city contacted the Oklahoma Highway Patrol’s bomb squad, which responded to the scene and found no evidence of explosives.

Chief Ross and deputies from the Washita County sheriff’s office traced the call to Horton’s residence on State Route 4. Officers entered the residence by breaking down the door.

Encountering no one in the first room they searched, Ross proceeded into a second bedroom, where Horton shot him four times.

Officers took Horton into custody, but said that they had “insufficient evidence” for an arrest.

Jessica Brown, a spokeswoman for the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation told NewsOK.com that she was uncertain whether Horton would be arrested in connection with the bomb threat, but that the investigation is ongoing.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/01/white-survivalist-gunman-shoots-black-oklahoma-police-chief-4-times-and-walks-free/

January 14, 2015

Pentagon's top spy chief will be first Marine, African American to hold position

The new director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's top spy chief, will be the first Marine and African American to hold the position.

Maj. Gen. Vincent Stewart

Maj. Gen. Vincent Stewart will leave his current post as head of the Marine Forces Cyber Command and will be promoted to the rank of lieutenant general. The Senate confirmed him as DIA chief in December. Stewart will start his new job on Jan. 23 and will take over for interim director David Shedd, a former CIA official.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, a former DIA director under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, congratulated Stewart on his new position.

"This is a position I know well, and Vincent is exceptionally qualified to serve in this important Intelligence Community and Department of Defense post," Clapper said in a statement. "Vincent's temperament, professional background, leadership skills and integrity make him eminently suited to be the next DIA director."

Stewart, a three-star general, replaces Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who left DIA in August. Flynn announced he would retire last April, amid conflict with the agency. Lt. Gen. Mary Legere, deputy chief of staff for intelligence for the Army, was once expected to take over for Flynn, but her potential nomination ran into opposition from Congress.

DIA provides military intelligence to combat units, defense planners and policy makers.

http://www.federalnewsradio.com/407/3779615/Pentagons-top-spy-chief-will-be-first-Marine-African-American-to-hold-position
http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=&sid=3764132

January 14, 2015

HOLY FUCKING SHIT VEEP BIDEN ALERT!!

Vice President Biden to visit Norfolk State University

NORFOLK

Vice President Joe Biden will be at Norfolk State University on Thursday to announce new funding to train Americans to join the cybersecurity workforce, according to a news release from the White House.

No additional details about the visit have been released.

In advance of the upcoming State of the Union, President Barack Obama is spending most of this week previewing proposals he will outline in the speech, according to The Associated Press. One focus is on cybersecurity, which comes on the heels of the hack of Sony Pictures Entertainment Inc.

http://hamptonroads.com/2015/01/vice-president-biden-visit-norfolk-state-university

January 13, 2015

Millionaire Renounces US Citizenship To Dodge Taxes, Whines When He Can’t Come Back

Roger Ver is your typical free-loading libertarian millionaire: Loved all the perks he got from living in the United States, didn’t think he should pay for them. In fact, he was so incensed at the idea of having to pay taxes on his millions – that he totally earned in a complete vacuum having nothing to do with the infrastructure created by the tyrannical government – that in 2014, he renounced his citizenship and ran off to live in St. Kitts, a tropical island with almost no taxes.

Except now he’s upset because the US won’t let him back in:

Ver complains that the decision has forced him to miss speaking appointments at conferences and that the US embassy in Barbados refused to even consider the evidence for his application.

The official reasoning behind Ver’s rejection is that he doesn’t have sufficient “ties” to his country of residency in the Caribbean and has not demonstrated he has “the ties that will compel [him] to return to your home country after your travel to the United States,” according to a picture he tweeted of a letter that appears to be from the embassy.

In short, US officials are worried that Ver might choose to stay in his native country illegally.

Ver is known as “Bitcoin Jesus” because he fetishsizes the cryptocurrency that he’s hoping will overthrow the evil tyrannical government. Of course, like all libertarians, Ver doesn’t really care what happens to all the people not already rolling in bitcoins because he got his, so to the hell with them. The most annoying part of his hypocrisy? Ver worships a virtual currency that literally only exists because the United States government he loathes so much spent millions of taxpayer dollars to develop the internet that Bitcoin cannot exist without. What a complete and utter tosser.
It might seem petty for the US to deny Ver entry but let’s be honest, if you renounce your citizenship for the explicit reason that you already made your millions and don’t want to pay back into the system that allowed you to become wealthy, you’ve broken the social contract and the United States owes you absolutely nothing. He can go scratch where the sun don’t shine.

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2015/01/12/millionaire-renounces-us-citizenship-to-dodge-taxes-whines-when-he-cant-come-back/

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-jesus-visa-application-denied-2015-1


EDIT: MrScorpio beat me to it, so mods can probably close: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026079913

January 11, 2015

Am I reading this right? The Intercept has their own source inside AQAP?

A source they gave anonymity to after re-printing AQAP statements in full, no less?

Or is Scahill conflating "source" (who divulges information on a 1-1 basis) with "spokesman" (who would be the same person or group of people responsible for disseminating AQAP communiques to the public) because there is a HUGE difference...
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/01/09/alwaki-paris/

http://www.lawfareblog.com/2015/01/the-intercept-finds-an-anonymous-source-it-can-trust/

January 9, 2015

Yep...There's always at least one...

Turkish deputy claims Charlie Hebdo attack was ‘staged’

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-deputy-claims-charlie-hebdo-attack-was-staged--.aspx?PageID=238&NID=76709&NewsCatID=338

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/abdullah-bozkurt/charlie-hebdo-a-wake-up-call-for-turkey-too_369336.html

January 9, 2015

Michael Brown Sr. and the Agony of the Black Father in America

It is Thanksgiving at Mike Brown’s house, three days after a grand jury declined to bring charges against the policeman who killed his son and his city exploded in riots. His wife, Calvina, and her mother and various daughters and sisters and cousins bustle around the kitchen preparing the feast. The men gather downstairs in the man cave, watching the Eagles school the Cowboys. Because they’re Americans and this is the day Americans consecrate to gratitude, the Brown family tries to stick to easy topics—food, sports, music, children, absent relatives—everything but the nightmare that has changed their lives forever. Soon they will take their places around the table. Soon they will bow their heads and pray. Soon they will declare the things that still make them, despite everything, thankful.

Brown’s house is an ordinary ranch in a pleasant, safe neighborhood a few miles from where his son was killed, completely average except for one thing—down in the man cave the walls are decorated with photos of Brown’s dead son, a tapestry of his dead son, a photo of a mural dedicated to his dead son. Hanging on the corner of the TV is a black necktie with his dead son’s face peeking out at the very bottom, like a bit of sun under a long black cloud. Brown leans against a pillow bearing his dead son’s face. Mike-Mike, they called him, as if saying his name once weren’t enough to express their love.

Brown is a tall, powerfully built man with a shaved head and a handsome face that seems perpetually solemn. In the months since his son died, he’s stopped cutting his beard, which makes him look like a figure from the Old Testament. As always, he’s wearing a T-shirt bearing his dead son’s face. He just got back from an overnight trip to New York, where he did five TV interviews in one day, and he looks exhausted but also relieved. The tension is over, the faint hope of a conviction extinguished, and now the real struggle begins. He leans back into the sofa and tries to relax, tapping ashes from a Newport into a red plastic cup.

BROWN IS THIRTY-SEVEN, BUT IN THE MONTHS SINCE HIS SON WAS KILLED HE HAS STOPPED CUTTING HIS BEARD AND SEEMS MUCH OLDER.

Downstairs, the men make a real effort to focus on the game, but in the absence of women and children the conversation turns to the big subject: the protests all across the country, the gratifyingly widespread criticism of the prosecutor and his tactics, the news coming out about how the Ferguson authorities bungled the crime-scene investigation by failing to measure the distance between shooter and victim, failing to record the first interview with the officer, failing to take his gun away at the scene, failing to prevent him from washing his hands, the medical examiner who couldn’t be bothered to replace a dead camera battery—a series of errors so relentless it’s hard to believe they weren’t screwing up things on purpose.

And the thing his son’s killer said about feeling like a five-year-old fighting Hulk Hogan? “He was six four,” Brown says. “So now they’re saying Mike-Mike was six six. He was six four. Just had a little more weight on him, and most of it was flab.”

Kids run in and out, and the men change the subject. Cal’s mom comes down to smoke a cigarette, taking off a shoe to rub her foot over her tiny toy poodle. Brown goes upstairs and comes back with his baby daughter on his arm, dressed in a holiday dress and pretty shoes. He props her on the cushion and she stares ahead with a sleepy, solemn face. Then Rev. DeVes Toon of Al Sharpton’s National Action Network arrives with an uncle of Oscar Grant’s—the man whose death at the hands of a California police officer was memorialized in the movie Fruitvale Station—and he describes his latest idea for a publicity campaign: pictures of families at their Thanksgiving tables with one seat empty, propping up a picture of their lost child. “You gotta keep the heat on them,” he says. Through peaceful means, he adds, although he believes the officer who killed his nephew never would have been convicted if not for the riots that followed his death. “In the back of their minds, they gotta smell the smoke. You know what I’m saying?”

Brown listens but doesn’t respond. Soon the conversation shifts to yesterday’s interviews. Of course they all wanted to know how it feels. The lawyers have been telling him to open up, so that’s what he tried to do. But some of it’s just weird, like pretending to walk down the hall so they can get some B-roll footage.

“Like acting?”

He laughs. “That’s what I’ve been doing for the last three months—acting, acting, acting.”

http://www.esquire.com/features/michael-brown-father-interview-0115