There's a 70% chance of recession in the next six months, new study from MIT and State Street finds

If it's going to come, PLEASE come by October!

PUBLISHED WED, FEB 5 202012:20 PM EST UPDATED WED, FEB 5 20204:13 PM EST
Pippa Stevens
@PIPPASTEVENS13

KEY POINTS
A new study from the MIT Sloan School of Management and State Street Associate says there’s a 70% chance that a recession will occur in the next six months.
The researchers used a scientific approach initially developed to measure human skulls to determine how the relationship of four factors compares to prior recessions.
The index currently stands at 76%. Looking at data back to 1916, the researchers found that once the index topped 70%, the likelihood of a recession rose to 70%.

There’s a 70% chance that a recession will hit in the next six months, according to new research from the MIT Sloan School of Management and State Street Associates.

The researchers created an index comprised of four factors and then used the Mahalanobis distance — a measure initially used to analyze human skulls — to determine how current market conditions compare to prior recessions.

“The Mahalanobis distance was originally conceived to measure the statistical similarity of the values of a set of dimensions for a given skull to the average values of those dimensions for a chosen group of skulls,” the researchers explained.

It measures the distance between a point and a certain distribution.

Using this principle, the researchers analyzed four market factors — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, stock market return and the slope of the yield curve — on a monthly basis. They then measured how the current relationship between the four metrics compares to historical readings.



More: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/70percent-chance-of-recession-in-next-six-months-study-from-mit-and-state-street-finds.html

Poll: 57% of Pennsylvania voters oppose Trump re-election

JEFF HAWKES | Staff Writer Feb 3, 2020

Nearly three out of five Pennsylvania voters don’t believe President Donald Trump deserves re-election, a finding in a new Franklin & Marshall College poll that suggests he has work to do to win the state a second time.

But the poll offered some good news for the embattled president as those favoring re-election grew to 41%, up from 37% in October.

“At the moment (Trump) would have a tough time winning the state, but I’m not prepared to rule it out,” said G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and analyst at F&M’s Center for Politics and Public Affairs.

“He’s improved slightly over where he was in October. That’s true nationally as he rallies Republicans around him in a very strong and decisive way” during the impeachment fight, Madonna said.

The survey found that 57% believe he doesn’t deserve reelection, down from 59% in October and 61% in July.

More: https://lancasteronline.com/news/politics/f-m-poll-of-pennsylvania-voters-oppose-trump-re-election/article_9fe8187a-42de-11ea-9225-475f7890b0aa.html

PA is also expected to be in recession this year: https://www.wilx.com/content/news/9-States-at-risk-of-recession-in-2020-567168691.html

Romney has a lot of influence on Mormons

In a tight race a few thousand Mormons in some states may make the difference.

One of America's most prominent racists just received the Presidential Medal of Freedom

During the State of the Union, Donald Trump bestowed the highest civilian honor on Rush Limbaugh.

By Laura McGannlaura.mcgann@vox.com Feb 5, 2020, 12:14am EST

Presidents have bestowed the Presidential Medal of Freedom to some of America’s greatest writers, artists, entertainers, journalists, and humanitarians — from Toni Morrison to Ansel Adams to Edward R. Murrow to Betty Ford.

On Tuesday night, President Donald Trump gave it to one of America’s most prominent racists.

Snip: Limbaugh’s racist rants continued beyond the 2008 election and started long before.

In 1990, Newsday reported that Limbaugh snapped at a black caller who confronted him, saying, “Take the bone out of your nose and call me back.” (Limbaugh denies he said this.)
In 2007, Limbaugh joked he was “singing a song in my head here during the break: ‘Barack, the Magic Negro, doo doo do doo.’”
In 2004, he suggested that professional basketball players were criminals: “You just gotta be who you are, and I think it’s time to get rid of this whole National Basketball Association. Call it the TBA, the Thug Basketball Association, and stop calling them teams. Call ’em gangs,” he said.
Three years later, Limbaugh described professional football players the same way. “Look, let me put it to you this way. The NFL all too often looks like a game between the Bloods and the Crips without any weapons. There, I said it.”
In 2011, he mocked a speech by the president of China, saying on air, “Hu Jintao was just going, ‘Ching cha. Ching chang cho chow. Cha chow. Ching cho. Chi ba ba ba. Kwo kwa kwa kee.” Limbaugh continued this at length, then said, “Nobody was translating, but that’s the closest I can get.”
In 2016, Limbaugh claimed that Obama’s race “amplified malcontent operations like Black Lives Matter. It gave rise to a thugocracy, and nobody had the guts to speak out against it for fear of what would happen to them.”
The list of examples goes on and on.

More: https://www.vox.com/2020/2/5/21123597/rush-limbaugh-medal-of-freedom-trump-racist-sexist

Any word on what Iowa precincts still haven't come in?

And who those regions might favor? Are they rural or city's a mix?

Dems need a commercial that shows unemployment dropping from 10% to under 5% under Obama

and Obama creating all these jobs for minorities and then showing Trump jumping in at the last minute to try to take credit for all of Obama's accomplishments. There has to be a clever / entertaining way to do this.

Maybe Obama is running a relay race. He starts out during the great recession taking the baton from Bush running behind everyone but then starts catching up and he laps the guys he is racing. It would correlate to the unemployment rate dropping, GDP growth, the deficit falling etc. He pulls way ahead and then Trump gets the baton and the growth rate drops, job creation drops, deficit soars, trade deficit soars other runners are catching up. Trump begins raising his hands in the air before the end of the race acting cocky and then the commercial ends but Trump never gets to finish the race. The question is asked. Is he really the one who should be running the race for 4 more years?

Giving Rush the medal of freedom was a bone to the base but will infuriate independent voters

I think that was a big mistake. Just a little taste of what is to come from this and we all know there is a truckload of this type of stuff:

https://twitter.com/KosherSoul/status/1224888387234156544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Instead of Caucuses, why don't they just do Ranked Choice Voting?

It seems like it's the same thing without the peer pressure if your candidate doesn't get enough.

Interesting how betting odds have each state predicted

Funny. On this betting site Pete jumped up like 15 pts and Sanders dropped 15 pts after Pete

declared victory. It changed for just a few minutes before people caught on and it went back to where it was before. Pete was almost even with Sanders for a few minutes and people in the comment section where totally confused as to what was going on. LOL

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5241/Who-will-win-the-2020-Iowa-Democratic-caucuses