What's going on with Ohio?

I know Nate Silver and others are projecting Clinton to win there, and I know Trump has zero ground game there and is engaged in a stupid civil war with the state GOP and Kasich. And Clinton people seem to be confident.

But:

1) almost every quality live person poll of Ohio is showing Trump with a statistically significant lead

2) Early vote statistics show Clinton substantially underperforming the Obama 2012 effort there (same case as Iowa, but offset by Clinton overperforming in VA, NC, FL).

So, what really is going on there? It's bizarre to see the early voting stats and Trump's Ohio polling numbers defy gravity as he collapses nationally.


Edited to add: for comparison sake, in 2012 President Obama won by 4% nationally and won by 3% in Ohio, and lead virtually every poll there. Clinton's lead over Trump nationally is around 7% and she trails, or at best is tied, in Ohio. The two polls for Ohio today--today--show a tied race and Trump +4.

Ben Sasse, alone amongst national Republicans, endorses democracy over Trump

Will some Trumpers stay home because they believe election is rigged?

I seriously hope that happens.

Where's Kelly Ann Conway? nt

Poll: Clinton Ahead in North Carolina; Virtual Tie in Ohio

WTF is wrong with Ohio? Are the men there really that awful?

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-clinton-ahead-north-carolina-virtual-tie-ohio-n665981

OMG. Twitter can be a force for good sometimes (video of Bane with Trump's voice)

Michelle Obama's POWERFUL speech in New Hamphire (with good audio)

Running tally of accounts re: women Trump has sexually assaulted (12 and counting)

1) and 2) Jessica Leeds and Rachel Cooks

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/us/politics/donald-trump-women.html




3) Cassandra Searles--Miss Washington

http://www.king5.com/mb/news/local/miss-washington-2013-says-donald-trump-groped-her/334981243?C=n

4. Thirteen-year old rape victim (currently in trial)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lisa-bloom/why-the-new-child-rape-ca_b_10619944.html


5. His own wife, Ivana

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/donald-trump-ex-wife-claim-he-raped-her-resurfaces-in-new-documentary-a6836151.html

6. Erin Burnett's friend

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-erin-burnett-video_us_57f83edce4b0b6a430326776

7. Jill Harth

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/20/donald-trump-sexual-assault-allegations-jill-harth-interview

8. Natasha Stoynoff People magazine writer:

http://people.com/politics/donald-trump-attacked-people-writer/

9. Kristin Anderson

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141597536

10. Summer Zervos

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-sexual-assault-allegations-latest-summer-zervos-apprentice-a7362526.html

11. Catherine Heller

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/15/donald-trump-sexual-misconduct-allegations-cathy-heller

12) Mindy McGillivray--Palm Beach photographer

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/palm-beach-post-exclusive-local-woman-says-trump-groped-her/w5ii48gwdJY9htsLl88GcP

there will be others, will update accordingly.

Trump campaign is pre-spinning the N-word tape. Multiple surrogates pointing out hip-hop

to justify his misogyny.

You KNOW what's coming next, standard white guy complaint that "why is it okay for rappers to use that word but not white people?"

Trump lashes out at Ryan

Source: Politico

Donald Trump shed any pretense of trying to hold his party together Monday, pouring gasoline on an already scorching confrontation with Republican leaders in Washington as they reckon with their nominee's spiraling campaign.

Trump swung hard at House Speaker Paul Ryan, who announced he was abandoning efforts to help elect Trump earlier in the day. His team highlighted the number of voters who pledged to vote only for Trump and no other Republicans. And Trump's Virginia state director convened a protest outside the headquarters of the Republican National Committee, accusing the party of bailing too quickly on their only chance to stop Hillary Clinton.

“These are all establishment guys who have never supported him, and they’re using this latest thing as a pretext for withdrawing their support,” said Corey Stewart, the Trump Virginia director.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/will-republicans-stay-with-trump-229536