geek tragedy
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Bernie Thoughts.
Example (everything is always ALL CAPS):
https://twitter.com/berniethoughts?lang=en
Delegate "do or die" totals for Sanders by end of April
By how many delegates can Sanders afford to be behind at the end of April and still have a non-absurd possibility of winning.
Not the number he needs to have a good, or a decent chance, but an actual chance.
In other words, how far can he fall behind and still claim to have a chance with a straight face? How big can Clinton's lead get before she can fairly declare that she will be the nominee?
Current delegate standings: Clinton has a lead of around 208 delegates, final divvying of Wisconsin still up in the air for a few delegates.
Total delegates remaining in April: 619
WY: 14
NY: 245
PA: 189
MD: 95
DE: 21
CT: 55
Total delegates after April: 1016
IN: 83
Guam: 7
WV: 29
KY: 55
OR: 61
VI: 7
PR: 60
CA: 475
MT: 21
NJ: 126
NM: 34
ND: 18
SD: 20
DC: 20
Keeping in mind that Clinton will earn delegates in every state (except maybe Wyoming) since we do not have winner-take-all primaries
Wisconsin exit polls--looking like a double-digit loss that will be called early
Honesty Clinton has had problems with views of her honesty and which are apparent today in Wisconsin. Just six in 10 Wisconsin Democratic voters say she’s honest and trustworthy, vs. about nine in 10 who say so about Sanders. That’s among Sanders’ highest honesty ratings in any primary to date, even approaching his rating in his home state of Vermont
Fewer than six in 10 voters say Clinton’s views on the issues are about right, vs. nearly two-thirds who say so of Sanders. That’s a flip of the average of previous primaries, where Clinton’s averaged 64 percent, Sanders 55 percent.
...
Qualities Roughly six in 10 voters today say honesty or empathy are most important to their vote; such voters have been more likely to support Sanders (especially honesty voters) in races to date.
Fewer, four in four in 10, call electability or experience most important, voters among whom Clinton’s dominated. Combined, honesty/empathy voters have outnumbered experience/electability voters on average in 2016, with an even larger than usual margin in preliminary exit poll results today.
Every preliminary metric indicates a wipeout--lots of very liberal voters, predominantly white turnout, etc.
My advice is stay off DU tonight, lots of crowing will happen over a modest 10-12 delegate pick up by Senator Sanders and how he has huge momentum and will win New York, blah blah blah.
Onto New York.
Edited to add: right link!
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democratic-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38163893
Moar Tim Robbins! Moar!!!
http://www.postguam.com/news/local/bordallo-denounces-actor-tim-robbins-remark-against-guam-at-sanders/article_d1ed22ee-fb0b-11e5-9092-53379b0e46d6.htmlRobbins, on the eve of the Wisconsin primary election in the race for president, said "winning South Carolina in a Democratic primary is about as significant as winning in Guam" as he introduced Sanders in Green Bay. Robbins was referring to Clinton's victory over Sanders in South Carolina.
“I am deeply disappointed by remarks made today by Tim Robbins at a campaign rally for Sen. Bernie Sanders that used the inability of the people of Guam to vote for president as a political punch line," Bordallo said. "These remarks are an insult to our community and they trivialize the disenfranchisement of our people in selecting our president. As a candidate for president of the United States, Sen. Sanders and his campaign should be working to be inclusive of all Americans, regardless of where they live."
Bordallo added, "The people of Guam are patriotic Americans; our men and women have and continue to volunteer in large numbers to serve in our armed forces, but apparently their voice doesn't matter as much to the Sanders campaign."
In her denouncement of Robbins' remarks, Bordallo, a former first lady of Guam, used the opportunity to endorse the former first lady of the United States.
Bordallo denounces actor Tim Robbins’ remark against Guam at Sanders rally
http://www.postguam.com/news/local/bordallo-denounces-actor-tim-robbins-remark-against-guam-at-sanders/article_d1ed22ee-fb0b-11e5-9092-53379b0e46d6.htmlRobbins, on the eve of the Wisconsin primary election in the race for president, said "winning South Carolina in a Democratic primary is about as significant as winning in Guam" as he introduced Sanders in Green Bay. Robbins was referring to Clinton's victory over Sanders in South Carolina.
“I am deeply disappointed by remarks made today by Tim Robbins at a campaign rally for Sen. Bernie Sanders that used the inability of the people of Guam to vote for president as a political punch line," Bordallo said. "These remarks are an insult to our community and they trivialize the disenfranchisement of our people in selecting our president. As a candidate for president of the United States, Sen. Sanders and his campaign should be working to be inclusive of all Americans, regardless of where they live."
Bordallo added, "The people of Guam are patriotic Americans; our men and women have and continue to volunteer in large numbers to serve in our armed forces, but apparently their voice doesn't matter as much to the Sanders campaign."
In her denouncement of Robbins' remarks, Bordallo, a former first lady of Guam, used the opportunity to endorse the former first lady of the United States.
Guam has either 11 or 12 delegates to the DNC convention. I wonder how many delegates Tim Robbins cost the Sanders campaign.
Bordallo denounces actor Tim Robbins’ remark against Guam at Sanders rally
Source: The Daily Post (Guam)
The Bernie Sanders campaign is feeling the burn from Guam Delegate Madeleine Bordallo who took exception to a campaign monologue by actor Tim Robbins as he introduced the candidate at a rally in Wisconsin.
Robbins, on the eve of the Wisconsin primary election in the race for president, said "winning South Carolina in a Democratic primary is about as significant as winning in Guam" as he introduced Sanders in Green Bay. Robbins was referring to Clinton's victory over Sanders in South Carolina.
“I am deeply disappointed by remarks made today by Tim Robbins at a campaign rally for Sen. Bernie Sanders that used the inability of the people of Guam to vote for president as a political punch line," Bordallo said. "These remarks are an insult to our community and they trivialize the disenfranchisement of our people in selecting our president. As a candidate for president of the United States, Sen. Sanders and his campaign should be working to be inclusive of all Americans, regardless of where they live."
Bordallo added, "The people of Guam are patriotic Americans; our men and women have and continue to volunteer in large numbers to serve in our armed forces, but apparently their voice doesn't matter as much to the Sanders campaign."
Read more: http://www.postguam.com/news/local/bordallo-denounces-actor-tim-robbins-remark-against-guam-at-sanders/article_d1ed22ee-fb0b-11e5-9092-53379b0e46d6.html
Oopsy!
New poll--Clinton +22 in Pennsylvania (55-33)
http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-democratic-primary-poll--4-2-3Pollster has done two earlier polls--all have shown Clinton in the 53-57% range, so MOE.
Sanders showing modest improvement--from 27% to 33%.
The 538 path to victory for Sanders shows that he needs to win Pennsylvania by 7 points to stay on track for the nomination (pending New York, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).
Pennsylvania not feeling the Bern--Clinton up +22 in new poll
http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-democratic-primary-poll--4-2-3The delegate lead could be over 300 due to Pennsylvania and New York alone.
Trend for Clinton is stead with Sanders showing modest improvement.
Looks like Sanders will miss his target by about 25 points or so.
Sanders campaign event: Winning South Carolina is like winning Guam.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/04/tim-robbins-figures-that-clintons-south-carolina-win-is-about-as-important-as-winning-guam/Keep it classy, Sanders campaign!
P.S. I wonder what Democratic voters in Guam and South Carolina have in common.
P.P.S. One thing they don't have in common--Guam hasn't voted yet. But the Bernie campaign feels fit to insult them anyways. Just like it feels liberated to insult black southern voters as irrelevant out of sour grapes.
By how many delegates does he need to cut the deficit in April?
She's currently ahead by 228.
states voting in April:
WI: 86
WY: 14
NY: 245
PA: 189
MD: 95
DE: 21
CT: 55
total: 705
May-June:
IN: 83
Guam: 7
WV: 29
KY: 55
OR: 61
VI: 7
PR: 60
CA: 475
MT: 21
NJ: 126
NM: 34
ND: 18
SD: 20
DC: 20
Total: 1016
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Member since: Thu May 13, 2004, 12:50 PMNumber of posts: 68,868
