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Chichiri
Chichiri's Journal
Chichiri's Journal
April 6, 2016
Delegate Count
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,298, Sanders 1,089 (Clinton +209).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,767, Sanders 1,120 (Clinton +647).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.8% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
Wisconsin (April 5): Sanders 47, Clinton 36 (Sanders +11); 3 not yet allocated.
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 47/50 (-3), Clinton 36/36 (+0).
Next Primary: April 9
Wyoming: 14 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 11, Clinton 3.
Comments
Bernie's target in Wisconsin was 50 delegates; he will either meet that target or come up between one and three delegates short. So at best, you can say that Wisconsin didn't hurt him any. Now on to New York by way of Wyoming.
I consider New York to be more or less neutral ground. On the one hand, Bernie was born and grew up in Brooklyn, and appeals to its large population of white young folks. On the other hand, New York is Hillary's home state by choice, and has a closed primary: only Democrats can vote in New York, and the deadline for registering as a Democrat was two weeks ago. Hillary's edge with Democrats is as large as Bernie's is with independents.
If Bernie can win New York, we can safely say that he's once again competitive in this primary. If not, we can safely say he isn't.
Speaking of New York, Bernie's interview with the New York Daily News editorial board is gaining wider awareness, which is very bad news for Bernie's chances with undecideds (and would be even worse news for him in the general, should he win the nomination). Here's a quick summary of that interview:
New York Daily News: Does the Fed actually have the authority to break up banks?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: How will that policy survive legal challenges?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: What laws did the CEOs actually break?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: How far do you want Israel to pull back their settlements?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: What should they have done differently in 2014?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: What's wrong with Palestine using the ICC?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: Is Obama doing the right thing about ISIS?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: How would you get information from captured ISIS commanders?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: How do you ride the subway in D.C.?
Bernie: That's easy, you just insert your token and you get in.
NYDN: They haven't used tokens in over a decade.
Bernie: Oh. Then I don't know.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
Claustrophobes think better outside the box!
.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 6, 2016
62 Days to California, 13 Days to New York.Delegate Count
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,298, Sanders 1,089 (Clinton +209).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,767, Sanders 1,120 (Clinton +647).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.8% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
Wisconsin (April 5): Sanders 47, Clinton 36 (Sanders +11); 3 not yet allocated.
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 47/50 (-3), Clinton 36/36 (+0).
Next Primary: April 9
Wyoming: 14 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 11, Clinton 3.
Comments
Bernie's target in Wisconsin was 50 delegates; he will either meet that target or come up between one and three delegates short. So at best, you can say that Wisconsin didn't hurt him any. Now on to New York by way of Wyoming.
I consider New York to be more or less neutral ground. On the one hand, Bernie was born and grew up in Brooklyn, and appeals to its large population of white young folks. On the other hand, New York is Hillary's home state by choice, and has a closed primary: only Democrats can vote in New York, and the deadline for registering as a Democrat was two weeks ago. Hillary's edge with Democrats is as large as Bernie's is with independents.
If Bernie can win New York, we can safely say that he's once again competitive in this primary. If not, we can safely say he isn't.
Speaking of New York, Bernie's interview with the New York Daily News editorial board is gaining wider awareness, which is very bad news for Bernie's chances with undecideds (and would be even worse news for him in the general, should he win the nomination). Here's a quick summary of that interview:
New York Daily News: Does the Fed actually have the authority to break up banks?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: How will that policy survive legal challenges?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: What laws did the CEOs actually break?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: How far do you want Israel to pull back their settlements?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: What should they have done differently in 2014?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: What's wrong with Palestine using the ICC?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: Is Obama doing the right thing about ISIS?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: How would you get information from captured ISIS commanders?
Bernie: I don't know.
NYDN: How do you ride the subway in D.C.?
Bernie: That's easy, you just insert your token and you get in.
NYDN: They haven't used tokens in over a decade.
Bernie: Oh. Then I don't know.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
Claustrophobes think better outside the box!
.
April 6, 2016
What Wisconsin will mean...
Right now the popular margin is 57-43. If that margin carries over into delegates, Bernie will get 49 and Hillary 39. Hillary will lead by 214. (There is only one state before New York, which is Wyoming and its 14 delegates; hence if these numbers hold it will be mathematically impossible for Hillary to go into New York with a lead of less than 200 delegates.)
Right now, before the numbers are in, Hillary needs 43.62% of remaining delegates. If she gets 39 out of Wisconsin, she will need 43.58%.
So tonight has not helped Bernie at all.
April 5, 2016
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,264, Sanders 1,040 (Clinton +224).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,264/1,266 (-2), Sanders 1,040/1,038 (+2).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: TODAY
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.
Comments
As you've probably figured out, I'm not posting State of the Primary every day. This is partly because of real life stuff, and partly because the race doesn't always change from day to day, and I don't always have stuff to talk about.
Today, however, I can talk about Wisconsin. Bernie's target is 50 delegates out of 86, which is a popular vote spread of +15. FiveThirtyEight's projected vote spread is +3. Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, but it's not enough anymore just to win states; his long-forseen successes over this mid-March to mid-April period has not changed that.
There are, as noted earlier, only four caucuses left in the race, and they total less than a hundred delegates. There are three fully open primaries, including today's primary in Wisconsin, and they total 190 delegates. Bernie cannot catch up with these states alone. As Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook recently noted, Bernie needs about 60% of the vote in the four remaining delegate-rich states -- New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey. The former two are closed primaries, the latter two are semi-closed. All have diverse populations.
If we seem a bit more depressed and worried these days, if the prediction markets seem just a little bit down, if Bernie seems to be getting more than his share of headlines these days, it's because we're in the same position now that Bernie was at the beginning of March: the pendulum, obeying the inevitable laws of nature, is swinging on the other person's side. The difference is that Hillary built up a 320-delegate lead when it swung to her, and will probably lose only 120 while it swings to Bernie. Then it's New York and beyond.
So Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, as we have foreseen (although for a while there it looked like there may be an upset). Our job is to do what Bernie couldn't or wouldn't in the south: cut into that delegate margin as much as possible. Let's see how we do.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I know how to juggle; I just don't have the balls to do it!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 5, 2016
63 Days to California, 14 Days to New York.Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,264, Sanders 1,040 (Clinton +224).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,264/1,266 (-2), Sanders 1,040/1,038 (+2).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: TODAY
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.
Comments
As you've probably figured out, I'm not posting State of the Primary every day. This is partly because of real life stuff, and partly because the race doesn't always change from day to day, and I don't always have stuff to talk about.
Today, however, I can talk about Wisconsin. Bernie's target is 50 delegates out of 86, which is a popular vote spread of +15. FiveThirtyEight's projected vote spread is +3. Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, but it's not enough anymore just to win states; his long-forseen successes over this mid-March to mid-April period has not changed that.
There are, as noted earlier, only four caucuses left in the race, and they total less than a hundred delegates. There are three fully open primaries, including today's primary in Wisconsin, and they total 190 delegates. Bernie cannot catch up with these states alone. As Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook recently noted, Bernie needs about 60% of the vote in the four remaining delegate-rich states -- New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey. The former two are closed primaries, the latter two are semi-closed. All have diverse populations.
If we seem a bit more depressed and worried these days, if the prediction markets seem just a little bit down, if Bernie seems to be getting more than his share of headlines these days, it's because we're in the same position now that Bernie was at the beginning of March: the pendulum, obeying the inevitable laws of nature, is swinging on the other person's side. The difference is that Hillary built up a 320-delegate lead when it swung to her, and will probably lose only 120 while it swings to Bernie. Then it's New York and beyond.
So Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, as we have foreseen (although for a while there it looked like there may be an upset). Our job is to do what Bernie couldn't or wouldn't in the south: cut into that delegate margin as much as possible. Let's see how we do.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I know how to juggle; I just don't have the balls to do it!
April 2, 2016
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,266, Sanders 1,038 (Clinton +228).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,266/1,266 (+0), Sanders 1,038/1,038 (+0).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.
Comments
Let's have a closer look at the new targets in April. In Wisconsin, Bernie needs 50 targets to Hillary's 36. He'll probably win Wisconsin, which is an open primary, but not by the 15 points he needs; it's going to be close either way. Wyoming is one of the four remaining caucus states, and he has a very good chance to nab the 57 points he needs.
How about New York, which Bernie needs to win by 4 points? They do like Bernie in New York, but it's Hillary's home state, and it's a closed primary. This means only Democrats can vote -- and the last day to register as a Democrat was March 25, which means there are going to be a lot of dismayed Bernie supporting independents showing up. It also has early voting, which favors Hillary. I think Hillary will win New York, but I don't dare speculate by how much, lest I jinx it.
Then the northeastern states. Four closed primaries and one semi-closed. Bernie is probably at least competitive in all five states, but he needs +7 in Pennsylvania, +13 in Connecticut, and +33 in Rhode Island. His targets are in the negatives in Maryland and Delaware, the last two states of the primary for which this is the case.
My prediction is that Bernie will finish April in a somewhat worse position than he started -- and with only a handful of states left to catch up.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
(From Treant) What do you call a group of birds who stick together? A Vel-crow!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 2, 2016
66 Days to California, 17 Days to New York.Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,266, Sanders 1,038 (Clinton +228).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,266/1,266 (+0), Sanders 1,038/1,038 (+0).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.
Comments
Let's have a closer look at the new targets in April. In Wisconsin, Bernie needs 50 targets to Hillary's 36. He'll probably win Wisconsin, which is an open primary, but not by the 15 points he needs; it's going to be close either way. Wyoming is one of the four remaining caucus states, and he has a very good chance to nab the 57 points he needs.
How about New York, which Bernie needs to win by 4 points? They do like Bernie in New York, but it's Hillary's home state, and it's a closed primary. This means only Democrats can vote -- and the last day to register as a Democrat was March 25, which means there are going to be a lot of dismayed Bernie supporting independents showing up. It also has early voting, which favors Hillary. I think Hillary will win New York, but I don't dare speculate by how much, lest I jinx it.
Then the northeastern states. Four closed primaries and one semi-closed. Bernie is probably at least competitive in all five states, but he needs +7 in Pennsylvania, +13 in Connecticut, and +33 in Rhode Island. His targets are in the negatives in Maryland and Delaware, the last two states of the primary for which this is the case.
My prediction is that Bernie will finish April in a somewhat worse position than he started -- and with only a handful of states left to catch up.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
(From Treant) What do you call a group of birds who stick together? A Vel-crow!
April 1, 2016
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Sanders 1,712, Clinton 1004 (Sanders +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Sanders 1,266, Clinton 1,038 (Sanders +228).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 1,266/1,266 (+0), Clinton 1,038/1,038 (+0).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Sanders needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Clinton 104, Sanders 38 (Clinton +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Clinton 50, Sanders 36.
Comments
I know, it's a pretty obvious April Fool joke, and my only excuse is sheer laziness. But when you think about it, for all their talk about momentum and fuzzy math and indictments and feeling the Bern and blah blah blah, can we honestly believe that Bernie supporters wouldn't KILL to have the candidates' situations reversed?
How This Works
#feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern
Pun Of The Day
Feel the Bern! (Get it? Bern, burn? LOL!!)
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 1, 2016
67 Days to CaliforniaDelegate Count
Total Delegates: Sanders 1,712, Clinton 1004 (Sanders +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Sanders 1,266, Clinton 1,038 (Sanders +228).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 1,266/1,266 (+0), Clinton 1,038/1,038 (+0).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Sanders needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Clinton 104, Sanders 38 (Clinton +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Clinton 50, Sanders 36.
Comments
I know, it's a pretty obvious April Fool joke, and my only excuse is sheer laziness. But when you think about it, for all their talk about momentum and fuzzy math and indictments and feeling the Bern and blah blah blah, can we honestly believe that Bernie supporters wouldn't KILL to have the candidates' situations reversed?
How This Works
#feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern
Pun Of The Day
Feel the Bern! (Get it? Bern, burn? LOL!!)
Profile Information
Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 06:17 PMNumber of posts: 4,667
