If there is a God, I have one prayer re. Irma.

I would gladly give Him Mar-a-Lago if he would spare everyone and everything else.

Potentially catastrophic storm surge for Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina

If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate.


https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas

Weather Underground: The Southeastern US is fucked.

Models have been very consistent that Irma will take a sharp turn toward the north-northwest during the weekend, working its way around the west end of an upper-level ridge that has been steering Irma all week. The crucial question is exactly where and when Irma will take this right-hand turn, as that will play a huge role in possible impacts to the Southeast U.S. coast. Our top models shifted eastward on Tuesday night in their predictions of where the right-hand turn will occur, and the consensus is now that Irma is most likely to track from south to north either across the Florida Peninsula or just east of it, perhaps remaining near the coastline until moving further inland somewhere from Georgia to North Carolina. Irma is not expected to track sharply away from the Southeast U.S. coastline. A track along or just off the west coast of Florida is still possible. None of our reliable models bring Irma any further west than the Florida Panhandle, so the chance of Irma moving deeply into the central or western Gulf is increasingly remote. A track that curves north and stays just east of Florida is also possible; such a track could still bring Irma into the East Coast at a point further north early next week. Figures 6, 7 and 8 below show the range of possibilities in ensemble model guidance from Tuesday night (ensemble models include a number of parallel forecasts that reflect the uncertainty in a given weather situation).

In short, computer guidance is in strong agreement that Irma will make at least one landfall somewhere from Florida to North Carolina during the weekend or early next week. The official NHC forecast track as of 11 am Wednesday brings Irma from near Miami to near Daytona Beach from Sunday morning to Monday morning. The 12Z Tuesday run of the GFS model predicts that Irma will hit Miami on Sunday afternoon, then make a second landfall near the Georgia/South Carolina border on Monday afternoon, with both landfalls occurring with at least Category 4 strength.

The entire Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia are within the five-day cone of uncertainty in the official NHC forecast, and all residents of these areas should pay especially close attention to the progress of Irma. Residents of southeast Florida need to be especially vigilant.

By the time of its turn, Irma is still predicted to be a Category 4 hurricane by NHC, and the GFS and European forecast models imply that Irma could be close to Category 5 strength, especially if its center does not move onshore across northern Cuba. Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate along Irma’s path until Saturday, and Irma will be passing over waters that are as warm or slightly warmer than its current environment, so there is nothing that would be expected to cause major weakening of Irma other than potential land interactions, especially with Cuba. As Irma moves northward, increasing wind shear and interactions with land will likely begin to weaken Irma. However, Irma is expected to remain a major hurricane well after its northward turn, even if its center moves over the Florida peninsula and especially if the center remains just off the coast. The official NHC forecast as of 11 am Wednesday has Irma as a Category 3 storm on the east-central Florida coast on Monday morning.

Because of Irma’s long life and its extreme strength, Irma will be pushing a tremendous amount of water through the Bahamas in the form of high waves and storm surge. Even if Irma’s winds weaken and its Saffir-Simpson category drops, Irma could still be capable of extreme storm surge, depending on its track and the geography of its landfall location(s). Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham noted in a blog post Wednesday: "The region from northeast Florida (St. Augustine) through all of the Georgia coast and southwest South Carolina is particularly vulnerable to storm surge, whether or not Irma makes a direct landfall in that region."


https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-hits-leeward-islands-peak-strength

Spain: Catalonia parliament approves independence referendum

Parliament in Spain's restive Catalonia region has approved an independence referendum on 1 October which Madrid has vowed to outlaw.

Separatist parties which hold a slim majority backed the referendum law and legal framework needed to set up an independent state.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has asked the constitutional court to nullify it.

He will hold an emergency cabinet meeting on Thursday and meet other party leaders.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41177428

Irma shifts slightly east, puts South Florida dead in her sights.

At 8 a.m. Wednesday, Hurricane Irma remains a Category 5 storm. The early morning cone update shows a slight shift east, in regard to the longer term forecast.

The storm is still projected to threaten the Florida peninsula this weekend. This forecast track puts the west and the east coasts of Florida under the cone of movement.

The National Hurricane Center holds the storm's max sustained winds at 185 mph. Wind gusts with the hurricane are still hitting an incredible 225 mph. Category 5 storms include any storm with sustained winds topping 155 mph.




http://www.nbc-2.com/story/36250963/hurricane-irma-forecast-path-0906-17-5am

Weather Underground Intensity forecast for Irma

According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Irma is tied with Rita (2005) and Mitch (1998) as the fifth strongest hurricane in Atlantic records going back to 1851, based on maximum wind speed. Irma is the first Atlantic hurricane outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico known to attain 180-mph sustained surface winds. The lowest central pressure measured outside the Caribbean and Gulf was 919 mb in Hurricane Gloria (1985), versus Irma's most recent central pressure of 927 mb, but Irma could end up breaking this record as well. The highest winds of any Atlantic hurricane are 190 mph, set by Hurricane Allen (1980), and Irma may approach that record.

For the next five days, wind shear, SSTs, and ocean heat content will remain very favorable for development, with Irma passing over slightly warmer waters of 29.5 - 30°C (85 - 86°F) later this week. Mid-level relative humidity is predicted to slowly rise, reaching 65% by the end of the week. We can expect one or more eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) this week, which will act to temporarily weaken the hurricane by perhaps 10 mph, followed by re-intensification.

Three of our four most reliable intensity models—the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and LGEM—predicted in their Tuesday morning runs that Irma would be a Category 4 or 5 hurricane with 130 - 160 mph winds through Saturday, and the official NHC forecast of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the remainder of the week looks reasonable. The only major impediment to Irma’s strength would appear to be interaction with land; a close pass or direct hit on Hispaniola or Cuba could potentially damage or destroy the hurricane’s inner core and knock it down to Category 2 or 3 strength.


https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-5th-strongest-atlantic-hurricane-record

Tropical Storm Jose coming right up behind Irma.

Hurricane Irma is so strong it's registering on devices designed to detect earthquakes

Hurricane Irma is so strong it's showing up on seismometers — equipment designed to measure earthquakes.

"What we’re seeing in the seismogram are low-pitched hums that gradually become stronger as the hurricane gets closer to the seismometer on the island of Guadeloupe," said Stephen Hicks, a seismologist at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom.

The noise is likely caused by high winds — which cause tiny motions in the ground — and also by trees swaying in the wind, which also transfers energy into the ground, he said. The seismometer is located close to the ocean, so waves crashing along the coastline reverberate around the island, also generating seismic energy, Hicks added.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/09/05/hurricane-irma-so-strong-its-registering-devices-designed-detect-earthquakes/634419001/

Minneapolis bar closes after performers and employees protest owner's donation to David Duke

A Minneapolis bar shut down after performers canceled, customers vowed to boycott it and employees were repulsed to learn the owner donated $500 to former KKK leader David Duke’s 2016 Senate campaign.

Caught between those who were outraged over the donation and white supremacists who thought they could claim the bar as their own were more than a dozen employees who became collateral damage in the fallout.

Former employees, who asked not to be identified, confirmed Friday that Club Jäger was closed and the 17 employees at the North Loop bar were out of jobs. Employees were incensed when they learned about the owner’s donation to Duke, and the decision to close the business was made by those who ran it, not the owner, they said.

Club Jäger’s owner, Julius DeRoma, couldn’t be reached for comment on Friday. The backlash erupted this week after City Pages published a story about DeRoma’s political donation to Duke’s failed bid for the U.S. Senate seat in Louisiana.

Soon after, DJ Jake Rudh announced on Facebook that he would no longer host Transmission, his long-standing weekly dance night, at Club Jäger, saying he didn’t want to be in a “venue where the owner supports the likes of David Duke and his messages of hate.”


http://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-bar-closes-after-performers-and-employees-protest-owner-s-donation-to-ex-kkk-leader/442502213/

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