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Gender: Male
Hometown: Detroit Area, MI
Home country: USA
Current location: San Francisco, CA
Member since: Wed Oct 29, 2008, 02:53 PM
Number of posts: 33,793

About Me

Partner, father and liberal Democrat. I am a native Michigander living in San Francisco who is a citizen of the world.

Journal Archives

Republicans have held the Precinct 3 commissioner seat since 1969. Democrats think they can flip it.

Every four years since 1968, Harris County residents have been able to count on a Republican winning the Precinct 3 commissioner’s seat.

In that half century, a parade of Democrats have been trounced. Some years, the party did not even bother to field a candidate in the traditionally conservative district, which covers the western portion of the county. The past three Democratic presidential nominees carried Harris County, but no challenger in those cycles came within 16 points of Precinct 3 incumbent Steve Radack, who has held the post since 1989.

Of course, 2020 has been anything but normal. The COVID-19 pandemic has upended normal life. The Astros play in front of cardboard cutouts. And Democrats say they finally will capture Precinct 3, an open seat since Radack decided not to seek a ninth term.

They said the unpopularity of President Donald Trump in Harris County, against the backdrop of a mismanaged coronavirus response by state leaders and demographic shifts that favor Democrats will help the party’s nominee, political strategist Michael Moore, defeat his Republican opponent, former Spring Valley Village Mayor Tom Ramsey.


Republican U.S. House campaign arm cancels $2 million in Houston-area advertising

WASHINGTON - The National Republican Congressional Committee has canceled about $2 million worth of advertising it had reserved for campaigning in the Houston television market, according to several Democratic and Republican sources tracking Houston media advertising who were not authorized to discuss the issue on the record.

The Houston region is home to several contested congressional elections, including the 7th Congressional District, which is represented by U.S. Rep. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, a Democrat. Fletcher unseated Republican John Culberson in 2018, and she is one of two Democratic incumbents who Republicans have been targeting in Texas this year.

The $2 million was intended to cover advertising in the last two weeks of the election, according to the sources.

One source, a national Republican operative, said the money has been moved to the San Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth media markets. The San Antonio market includes parts of Congressional District 23, where Republicans are trying to hold on to a seat held by retiring U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes. The Dallas-Fort Worth market includes multiple districts that Democrats are trying to flip, and one district held by U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, that Republicans are targeting.


Wichita State's Charles Koch Arena selected as a 2020 early voting site

WICHITA, Kan. (KSNW) – The Wichita State University Shockers Vote! Coalition said on Friday Wichita State University and Charles Koch Arena will become an early voting site for the 2020 general election.

The Wichita State University Shockers Vote! Coalition has partnered with the Sedgwick County Elections Office and the Intercollegiate Athletic Association to offer this opportunity for students, faculty, staff, and community members who are eligible to vote in Sedgwick County to cast their vote during the General Election.

Charles Koch Arena will be open for early voting from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 22.

Wichita State University Shockers Vote! Coalition began the conversation with the Sedgwick County Elections Office back in May to begin planning for this partnership. Following confirmation, the Coalition began having conversations with the Intercollegiate Athletic Association to utilize Charles Koch Arena to have a large enough space to encourage social distance and follow protocols from the Sedgwick County Health Department.

“As part of the Wichita community, it is important for us to use our resources to support our fellow Wichitans,” said Reginald McIntyre, director of marketing and fan engagement. “Partnering with the Sedgwick County Elections Office gives our local and campus community a safe space to exercise their right and civic duty to vote.”


Transgender Satanist anarchist wins Republican county sheriff nomination on a 'f**k the police' plat

Aria DiMezzo was shocked when she won the GOP primary for county sheriff in Cheshire County, New Hampshire, with thousands of Republican votes.

DiMezzo, founder of the Reformed Satanic Church, previously ran for county sheriff in 2018 as a Libertarian candidate.

But when she found out that the previous Republican nominee was no longer running, she joined the Republican party with two days to spare before the candidate deadline.


ME-02: Golden moves from 'Toss Up' to 'Lean Democrat'

n 2018, Golden proved an ideal challenger for this blue-collar district: a 36-year-old Marine veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, he once worked for GOP Sen. Susan Collins before being elected to the state legislature as a Democrat. This cycle he's raised more than $2.8 million, which he's used to dominate cheap Maine markets with catchy ads playing up his support for gun rights, lobster fishermen and union shipbuilding jobs at Bath Iron Works.

Meanwhile, former GOP state Rep. Dale Crafts, 61, won the June GOP primary with 45 percent in a three-way field. Crafts, who was paralyzed from the waist down in a 1983 motorcycle accident, was known as an ultra-conservative in the legislature and had rabble-rousing former GOP Gov. Paul LePage's support in the primary. But Crafts had just $32,000 on hand at the end of June and will be colossally outspent.

But most of all, Crafts isn't getting the help he was counting on from Trump at the top of the ticket. Last week, a bipartisan Fabrizio/Hart poll taken for AARP (this is one of the nation's oldest districts) showed Biden winning the 2nd CD 49 percent to 45 percent with Golden ahead 53 percent to 40 percent. And a new Quinnipiac Poll shows Biden leading by an even wider 53 percent to 44 percent in the 2nd CD.

It's unclear Republicans will follow through on their spending plans unless Trump's numbers improve. One of the outside spenders here earlier this year, the Rand Paul-aligned Protect Freedom PAC, actually went negative on Crafts in the primary trying in vain to assist their endorsee, Eric Brakey, in the primary. Now it may be too late for Crafts to right the ship. The race moves from Toss Up to the Lean Democratic column.


VA-05 is now a TOSS UP

Good's biggest problem might be money. By the end of June, Good had raised just $259,000 for the cycle, while Webb had raised $1.3 million and is on pace to raise $5 million total for the cycle. Sensing a mismatch — and real danger — the NRCC went on air with coordinated ads in early September to try to bail Good out. The ads warn voters to "look past the smooth presentation" and that Webb would "defund the police."

But Webb perfectly anticipated the attack, immediately responding with an ad accusing Good of "lying" about him wanting to defund the police and then featuring a multi-racial group of beefy retired county sheriffs endorsing his campaign.

The biggest challenge for Webb may be turnout in Charlottesville. Although in-person classes at UVA began on September 8, it's not clear how many students will be on grounds in November and how the pandemic will limit efforts to register them to vote in the 5th CD. The district is extremely polarized, and Webb will likely need at least a 35,000 vote margin out of Charlottesville and surrounding Albemarle County to win.

This wasn't originally a seat Republicans thought they'd have to worry about. But the combination of GOP disunity, an exceptional Democratic candidate and a big fundraising disparity mean they'll need to scramble to avert a disaster. Trump will almost certainly win the district, but private polling taken by both parties suggests Webb's ads have broken through. The race moves from Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.


CO-03 moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean" Republican

The 3rd CD takes in all of Colorado's rural Western Slope, including the Grand Junction area, where Boebert won her entire margin of victory in the primary. Its voting patterns are deeply polarized between conservative ranch towns and wealthy, liberal ski towns like Aspen and Steamboat Springs. It also includes Pueblo, a considerably Hispanic and traditionally Democratic steel mill county that flipped to Trump in 2016.

There is a precedent for Democrats winning here: in 2004, John Salazar (former Sen. Ken Salazar's brother) captured this seat and held it for three terms before losing to Tipton in the 2010 GOP wave. But Salazar was a Hispanic rancher who ran as a conservative Democrat. Mitsch Bush will emphasize her ranch conservation efforts, but she likely sports the wrong profile to win new converts.

Boebert's reputation among Democrats as a "QAnon candidate" has proven a fundraising windfall for Mitsch Bush, who has already bought $1.8 million of fall ads. But Boebert's profile has also risen in the conservative world since her primary triumph, and should be well-funded herself. Moreover, the conservative Club for Growth has endorsed Boebert and will likely spend whatever it takes to ensure she wins.

At the moment, both parties agree neither candidate is at 50 percent and both candidates are about to get much better-known for better or worse. But Boebert remains the favorite. The race moves from Likely Republican to the Lean Republican column.


GA-SEN: Senate Democrats to spend $6M to mobilize voters to boost Ossoff, Warnock

A group aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer unveiled a $6 million effort in Georgia geared toward mobilizing voters of color to back Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.

Majority Forward said Thursday it plans to partner with America Votes and national and local left-leaning organizations for a “sustained and integrated mobilization program” for the two candidates challenging Republican U.S. Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.

The program will finance digital, direct mail and radio spots to urge left-leaning voters to devise a voting plan for the November election. It’s aimed at strengthening a framework ahead of a likely January runoff in one – and possibly both – of the races.

“Regardless of whether these races are decided on Election Day or go to a run-off in January, we are laying the groundwork now to ensure voters know what’s at stake in this election and have the resources they need to vote blue,” said J.B. Poersch, the group’s president.


Georgia election officials say ex-felons can vote while paying debts

Georgians who have completed their felony sentences but still owe money for restitution, fees and court costs are eligible to vote, according to a notice recently posted on the secretary of state’s website.

Felons still must pay off fines that are part of their court-ordered sentences before they can re-register to vote.

The clarification of voting rights for former criminals comes before Georgia’s Oct. 5 voter registration deadline, enabling them to participate in the presidential election.

The secretary of state’s office outlined voter eligibility in a short message on its voter registration website:

“Your felony sentence is considered completed even if you have outstanding monetary obligations other than fines, such as unpaid restitution, fees, costs, or surcharges,” according to the website.


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