RandySF
RandySF's JournalNevada Early Blog Updated, 5 PM, 10/13/20
We have some ballot return numbers from urban Nevada, and the Democrats are outpacing the Republicans in Washoe and Clark. But the numbers don’t mean that much because the sample is so small. The rural numbers have been updated, too.
These early mail return numbers seem to indicate that either Republicans here are instructing people not to mail their ballots yet or many partisans are affected by the POTUS scare tactics. Either way, seems awfully risky to put all of your eggs in the Election Day basket. I still think overall turnout will be sky high.
----The Clark surge slowed since I last posted. The Dem lead is at 156,600, with all the usual caveats. That's a gain of 100 since Monday. Let’s see Wednesday if the Republicans are holding them off now or if this is a one-day anomaly.
----That RJ poll released today showing a dead heat is an outlier – I have seen two other credible private polls showing Joe Biden up by double digits. I don’t know if they are correct, but a dead heat it is not in most polls.
The poll has some other anomalies, too – no cell phones called, 13 percent Hispanics. I would still like to plug the internals into the model as I have with the NYT/Siena and CBS polls, but the RJ has not released the crosstabs – or I can’t find them.
The story says President Donald Trump is up 4 among indies – if so, the race is not a dead heat. Biden would still be up a bit, depending on the turnout scenarios, as you can see below from previous modeling.
I’ll repeat what I keep saying: Trump can win here, but we don’t have enough actual votes yet to see where the race is going here. All the credible polling says Biden will win here, but I prefer ballot return and early voting numbers to use for projections.
More when I have it.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
Fight over Florida minimum wage hike expected to end up close
TALLAHASSEE — Voting yes on Amendment 2 to boost Florida’s minimum wage will either give 2.5 million workers a pay raise or result in 158,000 jobs disappearing over the next few years.
The proposed incremental increase to $15 an hour will greatly reduce the number of households living in poverty and narrow pay gaps experienced by women and people of color. Or the measure will slow economic growth as Florida comes out of the coronavirus pandemic and create long-term effects from which the state might never recover.
While the opposing camps on Amendment 2 offer those dramatically different pictures about what will happen if the minimum-wage measure passes, political experts anticipate that the outcome of the vote on the proposed amendment — one of six on the Nov. 3 ballot — will be close.
Supporters need to win approval from 60 percent of voters to increase the minimum wage, a proposal spearheaded by prominent Orlando attorney John Morgan.
Aubrey Jewett, an associate professor at the University of Central Florida’s School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs, said “when push comes to shove a lot of people will vote for it because they believe on balance it will help average working people.”
https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/state/2020/10/13/close-vote-expected-florida-minimum-wage-increase-amendment-politics-election/5979610002/
Bloomberg gives $500,000 to juice Democratic turnout in Miami-Dade
WASHINGTON — Billionaire former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg is donating $500,000 to juice Democratic turnout in Miami-Dade County, a place where the party must bank a massive number of votes if it hopes to win the pivotal swing state of Florida.
The donation, the largest ever made to the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party, could not only lift Joe Biden’s chances of winning the state, which would all but eliminate President Donald Trump’s path to a second term. The effort to increase turnout also could improve the fortunes of Daniella Levine Cava, the Democratic candidate for mayor of the county, whose victory could have statewide and national implications that transcend the local nature of the office.
Though Miami-Dade County is a Democratic stronghold, Republicans have controlled the office for 16 years, which has allowed them to exert considerable sway over the way local elections are conducted. And in a state that is typically decided on razor-thin margins, changes that make it easier for Democrats to turn out their voters could have a ripple effect on future statewide races, as well as on the presidential election in 2024.
“Having a strong mayor who is a registered Democrat for the first time in 16 years with Florida as a continuing political landscape is a big deal,” said Christian Ulvert, a Democratic consultant who is advising both Levine Cava and Biden’s Florida campaign.
This year, under the leadership of Carlos Gimenez, the county’s term-limited mayor who is now running as a pro-Trump Republican for Congress, Miami-Dade limited the number of ballot drop box locations, denied a plan by the Miami Heat basketball team to turn its arena into an early voting site and sent out mail-in ballots later than was allowed under state law. Democrats contend those efforts have suppressed turnout in the deep blue county.
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/os-ne-bloomberg-gives-500k-to-juice-dem-turnout-in-miami-dade-20201013-tqxqsj4c6be4fjgcnzpy5vbwfm-story.html
In Florida's bluest county, Biden says Broward is the key to the presidential election
With Florida Democrats voting by mail at a record pace, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden dove into deep blue Broward County Tuesday in the hope of expanding his pre-Election Day lead over President Donald Trump.
The former vice president reveled in the sound of car horns as dozens of supporters in the heavily Caribbean-American city of Miramar gathered at an amphitheater for a drive-in rally — a socially distanced version of the campaign gatherings the Biden campaign has sworn off since the coronavirus pandemic emerged in March.
“It’s go time!” Biden shouted from a stage at Memorial Regional Park overlooking sedans draped in Biden covers and carrying American flags. “Here in Florida, you can determine the outcome of this election. We win Florida and it’s all over.”
The location of the event — part of a national campaign by Democrats to encourage voters to “make a plan to vote” — was a nod to both the importance of battleground Florida and to the growing influence of the state’s Caribbean Black community, which has been energized since Biden selected Jamaican-American U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate. Miramar is home to a large, politically active Jamaican-American community and the host of one of Broward County’s busiest early voting centers, where people lined up for hours in 2008 to cast ballots to elect Barack Obama as president.
On Tuesday, Broward County Mayor Dale Holness, who is Jamaican-American, urged Broward’s Black voters to repeat that turnout.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article246406940.html#storylink=cpy
Long lines persist on second day of early voting in metro Atlanta
In what may seem like a repeat of Georgia’s June election debacle, the first two days of early voting have been a rough opening act, with metro voters waiting up to 8 hours to cast a ballot.
his time, voting officials in Fulton, Cobb and Gwinnett have pointed to the sheer volume of voters as the biggest factor behind the long lines.
By Tuesday afternoon, voters faced estimated waits as long as eight hours in Gwinnett and five in Cobb. Fulton does not post estimated wait times, but multiple voters said they had waited for more than two hours. Around the metro counties, many early voting locations reported estimated wait times of more than 90 minutes before noon. DeKalb County was an outlier, reporting lines of under an hour.
“This is really about turnout,” Deputy Secretary of State Jordan Fuchs said on Tuesday. “We’re seeing record numbers. As much as the counties prepared for record early voting, we’re still going to see long lines.”
https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/long-lines-persist-on-second-day-of-early-voting-in-metro-atlanta/SKIHMUW6I5DNNIZCK6K5U6F7UU/
Mail-in ballot requests pass 2.6M in Pennsylvania
HARRISBURG — With three weeks to go before the Nov. 3 election, more than 2.6 million registered voters have applied for a mail-in ballot in Pennsylvania, a battleground state hotly contested by President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
Of those applicants as of Tuesday, more than 1.7 million are registered Democrats and about 641,000 are registered Republicans, a three-to-one ratio, according to state data. Another 284,000 ballots were requested by independent or third party voters.
All but about 70,000 have been mailed to voters, according to state data. Allegheny County has reported that more than 20 ballots with the wrong races were sent to voters, but the county on Tuesday did not have a figure for the total number.
Of all the ballots mailed out, more than 437,000 have been returned by voters. Democrats also dominate in that category, with 338,000 ballots returned, versus 64,000 by Republicans.
https://www.post-gazette.com/local/2020/10/13/Pennsylvania-mail-in-ballot-requests-2-6-million-registered-voters-PA-2020/stories/202010130153
Former Atlanta Hawks player opens his practice facility for early voting
CHAMBLEE, Ga. — A former Atlanta Hawks star is opening up the doors to his training center – not so you can work out, but so you can cast your ballot early.
Current Denver Nuggets player Paul Millsap says he wants to use his platform to help people exercise their right to vote.
“I was I was filled with joy,” Millsap told Channel 2?s Tom Jones.
He wasn’t filled with joy because his team had won a playoff game. Millsap was elated Dekalb County’s Elections Board voted to allow his training facility in Chamblee to be used as an early voting site. It will be available from October 12th to the 30th.
https://www.wsbtv.com/community/people-2-people/former-atlanta-hawks-player-opens-his-practice-facility-early-voting/X3UWDX3MVZBRNDPEUHCI576XMA/
Butler County (OH) elections employee tests positive for coronavirus, didn't interact with voters
A Butler County Board of Elections employee has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, but he didn't come in contact with voters, board officials said.
Brian Hester, who works in the board's candidate and ballot services division, announced his illness on Facebook on Tuesday. Hester, also the Butler County Democratic Party executive director, said he had not been at work since Thursday.
Hester had no contact with voters in his role, Butler County Board of Elections Director Diane Noonan said. He will be off for 14 days and must bring a doctor's note to return.
Noonan said a couple of employees were off Tuesday to be tested, but they had not interacted with voters either.
Each employee has his or her temperature taken daily and the facilities are cleaned thoroughly each night.
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/13/butler-county-elections-staffer-covid-19-didnt-interact-voters/5977753002/
Hamilton County (OH) Board of Elections trying to relieve early voting traffic congestion.
Thousands of early voters each day have caused traffic headaches outside the Hamilton County Board of Elections offices in Norwood.
So starting Thursday, the board of elections will add a second ballot collection location on-site during peak hours to alleviate congestion.
For each of the first five days of early voting, which began last Tuesday, 2,200 to 3,100 voters have lined up outside the Hamilton County Board of Elections in Norwood. Each day would be a record total if it were the 2016 or 2012 presidential elections, which saw only one day where the number of in-person early voters exceeded 2,000 – Nov. 4, 2016, when 2,096 voters showed up in Norwood.
The crowds will likely get bigger closer to Election Day, said Caleb Faux, one of the two Democratic members of the Board of Elections, during a meeting on Tuesday.
"I have some concerns if we find ourselves trying to cope with 7,000 a day, on top of people coming here to return absentee ballots, we could be dealing with some problems in the future," Faux said.
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/13/hamilton-county-board-elections-trying-relieve-early-voting-traffic-congestion/5976689002/
Ohio voters to elect six members to state Board of Education
Voters are electing six members of the state Board of Education this year, including three representing the central Ohio area.
The half-dozen seats are among the 11 elected positions on the board. Another eight members are appointed by the governor.
The 19-member panel creates policy and makes recommendations for K-12 education, and hires the state superintendent.
While members are elected in nonpartisan races, the board has been political at times. Most recently, the board sparred over a resolution ultimately approved 12-5 in July condemning hate speech and racism in schools, directing the Department of Education to review curriculum models and tests for racial bias, and requiring bias training for employees.
The resolution followed the death of George Floyd, an unarmed Black man killed while in the custody of Minneapolis police, triggering protests across the nation. Conservatives on the board said the resolution was a rush to judgment and questioned the extent of racism in schools.
https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/12/ohio-state-school-board-has-6-11-elected-seats-up-grabs-candidates-differ-on-education-policy/5914513002/
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