RandySF
RandySF's JournalDemocrats sweep Dallas County races
Democrats swept Dallas County races and secured a super majority on the Commissioners Court during Tuesday’s election.
Despite an FBI investigation, Democratic Commissioner John Wiley Price handily beat Republican challenger Charles “Lingy” Lingerfelt. County Commissioner District 1 candidate Theresa Daniel, also a Democrat, defeated Republican opponent Larry Miller for the seat being vacated by Republican Commissioner Maurine Dickey.
Victories for Daniel and Price give Democrats a 4-1 majority on the court.
Democratic Sheriff Lupe Valdez won a third term, defeating Republican challenger Kirk Launius. Democratic county Tax Assessor-Collector John R. Ames defeated Republican challenger Andrew Marcontell. Democrats also led three contested county judgeships.
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/local-politics/20121107-democrats-sweep-dallas-county-races.ece
Republicans lose supermajority in Florida House.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Three Republican incumbents lost Tuesday in the Florida House, where Democrats gained half a dozen seats, meaning they'll no longer be forced to deal with a GOP super majority that effectively left them procedurally powerless the past two legislative sessions.
A fourth Republican was on the ropes. Rep Chris Dorworth, slated to become House speaker in two years, is headed to an automatic recount after finishing 37 votes shy of Democratic challenger Mike Clelland.
Dorworth, elected in 2007, has been haunted by personal and financial issues in his re-election bid.
State Reps. Peter Nehr, Scott Plakon and Shawn Harrison were upset as Democrats cut their deficit to 79-41 in the House. If Clelland's lead holds up in the recount, the Democrats would gain a seventh House seat to go along with U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson's re-election and President Obama's apparent victory here.
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/3-Republican-incumbents-lose-in-Florida-House-4014174.php#ixzz2BhmZ4n4L
Democrats shrink GOP's majority in Arizona Senate
PHOENIX (AP) — Republicans maintained control of the Arizona Legislature but Democrats picked up four additional Senate seats in Tuesday's general election, producing predictions there the Legislature will be more moderate and feature more work across party lines.
Incumbent John McComish and Rep. Chester Crandell prevailed in Senate races in two battleground districts, but other key races saw Democratic Reps. Ed Ableser and Steve Farley and ex-Reps. David Bradley and Barbara McGuire win in others.
The results and in other contested races will leave Republicans with a 17-13 Senate majority, down from the 21-9 supermajority they now hold after winning four additional seats in 2010.
Republicans now hold a 40-19 edge in the House, where there is also one independent, but Democrats were on track to gain additional seats in that chamber as well.
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Democrats-shrink-GOP-s-majority-in-Arizona-Senate-4011397.php#ixzz2Bhlviwqp
Republicans lose supermajority in Texas House
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Republicans lost their 102-member supermajority in the Texas House early Wednesday, opening the door for Democrats to slow or block the majority's conservative agenda or demand compromise.
Democrats have won more than 50 seats in the 150-member lower chamber of the Legislature. That means Republicans can no longer suspend the rules to push through legislation over the objections of minority Democrats.
Last year, Republicans had enough lawmakers to form a quorum without any Democrat showing up for work. Now Democrats could shut down state lawmaking if they wished.
Democrats added seats mostly through redistricting, which occurs every 10 years when the new U.S. Census is released. Texas added more than 4.3 million people between 2000 and 2010 and 89 percent of them were minorities.
http://www.sfgate.com/news/texas/article/Republicans-lose-supermajority-in-Texas-House-4017513.php#ixzz2BhkTehKu
Marty Meehan touted as best successor for Kerry.
Warren Tolman, a candidate for lieutenant governor and governor in 1998 and 2002, respectively, said Meehan would be a "serious" candidate based on his war chest.
Tolman, now a lawyer at Holland & Knight in Boston, said the Republican would likely be Brown, again. But Tolman, paused, and added: "You've to have the fire in the belly and he's been through two tough races in as many years. But the Republican bench is not that strong." Tolman does agree that Kerry's days as senator could be dwindling down.
"The tea leaves certainly appear to be pointing that way," said Tolman. "But it's up to one man, and that's President Obama. He will decide where Kerry is most important to him: as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee or as secretary of state."
The two men have developed a close personal relationship in recent times. In 2004 when Kerry was the Democratic nominee for president, Obama, then an Illinois senator, delivered a keynote address during the Democratic National Convention, giving him needed exposure.
http://www.lowellsun.com/todaysheadlines/ci_21955267/if-president-calls-kerry-who-will-run?_requestid=20102379#ixzz2BhTxf37U
‘Unskewed Polls’ founder admits he was wrong, then TRASHES Rasmussen
Dean Chambers, the man behind “unskewed polls,” a site that attempted to re-weight polls that Chambers thought oversampled Democrats, admitted to his model’s shortcomings on Wednesday.
“Most of the polls I ‘unskewed’ were based on samples that generally included about five or six or seven percent more Democrats than Republicans, and I doubted and questioned the results of those polls, and then ‘unskewed’ them based on my belief that a nearly equal percentage of Democrats and Republicans would turn out in the actual election this year,” Chambers wrote on The Examiner website. “I was wrong on that assumption and those who predicted a turnout model of five or six percent in favor of Democrats were right. Likewise, the polling numbers they produced going on that assumption turned out to be right and my ‘unskewed’ numbers were off the mark.”
Leading up to Election Day, Chambers took polls that showed a Democratic Party identification advantage and adjusted them to reflect more Republicans in the electorate. As of late September, the “unskewed” site showed Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 7.4 points. In Chambers’ final projection, he estimated Romney would win 51 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes. That, of course, didn’t happen. Obama won the popular vote and 303 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 (Florida has yet to be decided).
Initially, Chambers relied on Rasmussen’s numbers on party identification to re-weight the polls. Later, he used his own numbers. “I think (Rasmussen’s) surveys have been discredited as much as mine,” Chambers told TPM on Thursday, adding that Scott Rasmussen has been in the business for much longer than he has. Exit polls showed Democrats held a 6-point party identification advantage over Republicans on Election Day.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/unskewed-polls-wrong.php?ref=fpblg
Rubio's heading to Iowa.
From Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad's political team a bit ago:
Saturday, November 17, 2012
5:30 p.m. Sen. Marco Rubio headlines annual Branstad birthday fundraiser
The Palace Theater, Adventureland
305 34th Ave. N.W.
Altoona, IA
Jonathan Martin and I wrote about 2016 in terms of the Clinton and Bush dynasties today, but Rubio very much remains on the minds of Republicans looking to fix an image and demographic problem.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/rubio-to-headline-iowa-governors-bash-149011.html
Joe Walsh for governor in 2014?
Less than 12 hours after his concession speech to Democrat Tammy Duckworth, Congressman Joe Walsh was not ruling out a future bid for governor or U.S. Senate.
Describing a “dearth” of Republican leadership in Illinois, Walsh said someone needs to step up. And the McHenry Tea Partyer, known for his charismatic candor and caustic rhetoric, said Wednesday it just might be him.
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20121107/news/711079754/
NATE: Colorado is a blue state for now.
The worry for Republicans is that Mr. Obama won Colorado by nearly five percentage points (4.7 points was his margin there, to the decimal place). In contrast, Mr. Obama’s margin in the national popular vote, as of this writing, is 2.4 percentage points. We estimate that it will grow to 2.5 percentage points once some remaining returns from states like Washington are accounted for, or perhaps slightly higher once provisional ballots in other states are counted. But it seems clear that Mr. Obama had some margin to spare in the Electoral College.
Had the popular vote been a tie – assuming that the margin in each state shifted uniformly – he would still have won re-election with 285 electoral votes, carrying Colorado and Virginia, although losing Florida and Ohio.
In fact, had Mr. Romney won the popular vote by two percentage points, Mr. Obama would still have won the Electoral College, losing Virginia but holding onto Colorado.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/
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