gopiscrap
gopiscrap's JournalEarly Presidential Electoral Vote Prediction
Just for shits and giggles I sat down and looked at a map today and this iswhat I came up with
please disagree with and add your own predictions:
HI 4, WA 12, OR 7, CA 55, NM 5, CO 9, NV 6 98 for Obama
MN 10, IA 6, WI 10, MI 16, IL 20 61 for Obama total 159
ME 4, NH 4, VT 3, MA 11, CT 7, RI 4, NY 29 62 for Obama total 221
PA 19, NJ 13, DC 3, MD 10, DE 3, VA 13 61 for Obama total 282
AK 3, ID 4, MT 4, WY 3, UT 6 20 for the GOP
ND 3, SD 3, NE 5, KS 6, OK 7 TX 36 60 Total for the GOP 80
MO 11, AR 6, LA 9, KY 9, TN 11 46 Total for the GOP 126
MS 7, AL 9, GA 15, SC 9, NC 15 WV 5 60 Total for the GOP 186
Toss Ups:
Arizona 11
Florida 27
Ohio 19
Total 57
My guess is that Obama will win with 282-339 electoral votes
Why I am a liberal 10,000th post!!!
For my 10,000th post please indulge me in a bit of personal rambling....
I was born in Germany 12 years after the carpet bombing of my home town Frankfurt. Everywhere I went, I saw the traces and direct signs of destruction...It was hard not to be anti-war
Because of the unsanitary conditions at the time, as an infant I contracted a case of encephalitis, was in the hospital for six months and my parents recieved a bill for the equivilant of 17.46 (1957 dollars)
It is hard not to be for single payer universal health care which liberals support.
My mother had her left leg amputated along with the toes or her right foot, seeing her struggle and her pain (a direct result of WWII), it is hard not to be anti-war
At 7 a week before Christmas my father died as a result of wounds sustained in the Vietnam War,
it is hard not to be anti-war
Finally emigrating to the US we lived in our first family home and at 15 I achieved my US citizenship, I have always felt like a guest in the US but increasingly the Democratic Party and the liberal wing has been the one to embrace multi-culturalism and open doors and that to me affirms my worth and possibilites as fough for by the liberals.
I know some don't like organized religion, but because of my Catholic education both religion and history classes were infused with a great deal of peace and justice education...it helped form my liberal thinking.
I grew up eating dinner while watching the news during the 1960's when the liberalism was in it's ascendancy...the images of war and civil unrest seared my mind with the contrast of what was written in the textbooks and it was hard not be a liberal.
I grew older and understood more of politics and right at the threshold of being an adult (16), my mother died and I became a war orphan..I was given a great set of foster parents and government help to go through college and really began to understand the importance of a safety net not only in a deeply personal way, but in the greater context of the solciological good and it was hard not to supress my affinity with those who are liberal.
In 1988 I protested the appearance of George Bush Sr. in Tacoma, WA...I was beat up, spit upon and threatened (illegally) with deportation and once again my heart sang with those who are for civil liberties.
I was blest enough to be able to run for US Congress from the left...while we did not win, we provided a major impact on making this town more liberal and also moved our DINO Rep. to stop voting funding for the SOA... in many other nations being a lower middle class immigrant, that door would have been closed to me. Once again it's hard not being a liberal.
In the 1990's I got cancer and we had no health insurance, the bill came to $168,000.00 and we lost all we had and so once again I am a liberal because I see first hand the need for a single payer system.
I'm middle aged now and through many experiences have seen the need for social justice, rights of bargaining a realistic safety net, and universal health care. And who has been there: the LIBERALS. I thank God I am a liberal and wouldn't want it anyother way and I think DU for giving me a vehicle to express that!!!
Sorry for the length, Peace to my brothers and Sisters at DU!!!
Question about Washington Caucuses
Since President Obama has a lock on the nomination....I was thinking of going to the Republican caucus and being a delegate for Gringrich because that would weaken Romney, and then as soon as the caucus votes are certified, start asking a bunch of quesons and making liberal motions to mess up their caucus and watch their heads explode...if I had enough people to do it and big enough scene ensued we might be able to get some press coverage. Not identify ourselves as actually being Democrats..but if the press came, we'd just discuss the issues calmly and cooly while they're going crazy...it worked when George Bush Sr. came to town on October 27, 1988? It would be kind of like an "Occupy the GOP Caucus" Thoughts?
How come....
when shrub was pres, anytime anyone said something contrary to his beliefs or showed disrespect, it was always a national security problem and they were told to lave the coutnry, but the repukes (specially teaparty assholes) feel they have free rein to abuse the Pres. and his policies? Wouldn't that be a double standard? I would love to see the MSM ask this question? Speically of all the candidates!
Curious as to your feelings
A poll came out last night that said that 20% of folks would not vote for a candidate for president if they knew for sure that that candidate is a member of the LDS (Morman) Church.
Now the question...should the Dems run with that and use it as ammo, or shgould they lay off it because it smacks of being prejudiced against ones religion. I can see both sides, but what bothers me is how the Morman Church throws huge amounts of money at initiatives in which GLBT is the issue, that to me negates any protectyion they may have, but others may feel differently.
NEWT PLEASE RUN AS A THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE
Dear Mr. Former Speaker:
I wish to encourage you to do your bit to help this nation out tremendously.
By the oratorical skills you possess and the resources at your command,
please use them to enlighten the 2012 presidential race.
Only you have the unbridled confidence, the aggresive style
and the nothing to lose bility to make a run from the right.
You will not only be the darling of the right wing evangelical
establishment, but the Lord wants you in this race!
Sample of a possible letter to encourage the Newt to run 3rd party
OCCUPY TACOMA IS GOING TO GET RAIDED!
Per this morning's Tacoma News Tribune....Occupy Tacoma one of the longest continuing Occupy sites (at Donald Pugnetti Park So. 21st and Pacific Avenue) has recieved a visit by the Department of Transportation which land Occupy is situated upon and have been warned that they are going to get evicted. In addition a fence company came by and measured the perimeter of the park. The City of Tacoma and the Washington State Department of Transportation is hiding behind unquoted and unamed sources that neighbors and businesses have complained. To my knowledge only one neighbor and no businesses have complained. In fact the site has gotten aong extremely well with others in the area.
IMHO wha it boils down to re two things:
1) the Federal Court aqndFederal offices are a block away. The Feds historically have used te park as a social area and a place for relaxation and eating lunch during the spring and summer...with Occupy there, they would not be able to do that, or least most wouldn't want to.
2) as stated in the Trib this morning: "The park is an entrance to the city-into the museum district and shopping area along Pacific Avenue-and maybe that this doesn't present Tacoma in the best light"
WTF: we're going to violated people's free speech because some fucking caitalistic greedy asshole of a business owner is afraid he/she might lose a customer or two? Well as fa as I am concern both the business communit and the feds can kiss my ass. STAY STRONG OCCUPY TACOMA.
Olympia and Seattle folks...we migt need witnesses on a quick bsis..please stand by!
I agree to give you an example
on October 27, 1988 I was one of seven who went to a George Bush for president rally in Tacoma, Washington...11 minutes into the rally I yelled "What about the poor George Bush, what about the poor?" at which point I was spit on, hit over the head with yard sign and had my glasses ripped off of me, and I was the one arrested and charged with disorderly conduct!
Willard's Dollar's
One of the biggest problems I percieve with Romney is that he uses his money to stifle free expression and participation in the Democratic process. Two of his statements made that clear: A) I made Ted Kennedy take a second mortgage out on his house to run against me. B)If you need income in the political position you are running for, you shouldn't run.
21 years ago I ran against a 14 year entrenched incumbant from the left. I did it on 58K and he spent 500K I got 42% of the primary vote. We were both not rich and yes it was an uphill fight but I was still there in the ballgame. I couldn't do that today...not with a guy like Willard.
Romney instead of using his fortune for the common good, uses it instead to stifle people and to enrich himself even further. Willard is the classic example of the problem that really started with Reagan when he ran: it's ok to be selfish!
Not only is Willard a stiff, wierd son of a bitch, but he is a self centered, smug bastard as well. His attitude smacks of I've got mine so fuck you!!!
Let us pray that this asshole doesn't get the presidency!
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: Frankfurt am Main
Home country: Germany
Current location: Tacoma, Washington
Member since: Sat Jul 18, 2009, 11:55 AM
Number of posts: 23,765
