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morningfog

morningfog's Journal
morningfog's Journal
April 27, 2016

Bernie's statement tonight: TICKET and platform. Who would be on the ticket?


“I am proud that we were able to win a resounding victory tonight in Rhode Island, the one state with an open primary where independents had a say in the outcome. Democrats should recognize that the ticket with the best chance of winning this November must attract support from independents as well as Democrats. I am proud of my campaign’s record in that regard.

“The people in every state in this country should have the right to determine who they want as president and what the agenda of the Democratic Party should be. That’s why we are in this race until the last vote is cast. That is why this campaign is going to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia with as many delegates as possible to fight for a progressive party platform that calls for a $15 an hour minimum wage, an end to our disastrous trade policies, a Medicare-for-all health care system, breaking up Wall Street financial institutions, ending fracking in our country, making public colleges and universities tuition free and passing a carbon tax so we can effectively address the planetary crisis of climate change.”


The first paragraph is about the "ticket" that the Dems must have to attract independents. The second paragraph is about the "platform" Bernie will push for at the convention. This is the first I recall hearing him discuss the "ticket."

Bernie is no fool. His campaign had said he will stay a Dem and support the nominee. He knows that Hillary is set to be the nominee. So when he referred to the "ticket" that can attract independents, who does he have in mind for the second half of the ticket? Does he have someone in mind?
April 26, 2016

My (FWIW) prediction for tonight: Hillary nets around 25 delegates, Bernie will need 63% moving on

My prediction, being hopeful and generous to Bernie, is that he takes Rhode Island and Delaware, narrowly. Hillary takes CT narrowly and MD and PA by 12-15 points each. When the dust settles, I am hoping that Bernie drops fewer than 25 delegates behind from where he is now.

That would put the PD count at about B-1385 to H-1650. Hillary would be up about 265.

With 1,016 left moving forward, Bernie would need 641 of those to reach 2,026, or 63%.

The calendar is favorable for Bernie from now until June 7. Indiana is a midwestern open primary with 83 delegates. Guam and Virgin Islands are caucuses, with a total of 14 delegates. Oregon is Bernie country with 61 delegates. West Virginia (29) is semi closed primary and Kentucky (55) is a closed primary. Who knows? And Puerto Rico (60) is an open primary, but went big to Hillary in 08.

I don't expect much to change with respect to the bottom line between tonight and June 7, when 694 delegates are on the table.

April 26, 2016

Unprecedented: after tonight it is likely that Cruz and Kasich are no longer mathematically viable

Yet they will continue through to the convention. It's quite something. There will be only one candidate with a viable path and two candidates with no viable path running defense through the remaining states. The two non-viables have even formed an alliance, working together to block and corral delegates from trump.

It's simple amazing and a delight to watch.

April 22, 2016

Why Bernie's New York loss was a turning point in viability.

There is no denying New York was a big loss. It increased his needed pull form remaining pledged delegates to 58.6%. It stopped his good run of wins and chipping away at Hillary's lead. It turned him from "viable but huge long shot," to "ain't gonna happen."

It also suggests he is in for more losses on Tuesday, when more eastern seaboard states vote.

There are 384 delegates up for grabs in Tuesday. Here is the math looking forward.

If he breaks even on Tuesday in all five states (CT, DE, MD, PA, RI), 50% split of the delegates with Hillary, he would need 61.7% of the remaining pledged delegates to reach 2,026. While there are some favorable states after Tuesday, 61.7% is not going to happen.

50% split on Tuesday is also not going to happen, either.

I still support him staying in, pushing his message, pushing Hillary towards it and bringing in voters in the remaining states. But, Bernie is an intelligent guy. He knows the score. He has already tipped us -- he is going to remain in the Democratic Party and support the nominee. No spoiler, no third party, not even a return to independent democratic socialist.

And I think he deserves all of our respect. He has changed the Democratic Party. He has changed the conversation. He has brought in new voters and new interest into the process. And he isn't finished.

April 21, 2016

One thing laid bare this primary: super delegates are superfluous. NIX THEM

Both sides have used arguments that boil down to the very simple fact that super delegates are either undemocratic or superfluous.

They serve no real value. The recent mantra is that they will honor the vote of the people, following the pledged delegate winner. Okay. In that case, there is no need to have 15% of the delegates allocated to them. In fact, there is no point in having them at all if they are nothing more than a pro forma rubber stamp.

Alternatively, they vote without regard to the pledged delegate winner, but on any other standard they choose. For example, following the popular vote of the entire primary, the popular vote of whatever state they are associated with, personal connection to the candidate, the candidate who helped raise campaign funds, the candidate with the highest favorability. Or they are there to thwart the voice of the people if the party leaders feel the people are out of line. Okay. In any of those cases, the super delegates are undemocratic.

Their impotence in most races and potential anti-democratic role in others boils down to a simple and concise point. Get the fuck rid of them.

April 20, 2016

Call it Dinner.

April 20, 2016

It's time, Skinner.

10:45 EST.

That is the time, Skinner.

April 19, 2016

Why did Hillary lose FOUR Super Delegates?

I regularly check the Green Papers to follow the pledged and unpledged (super) delegate count.

As of Friday, Hillary had 480 super delegates supporting her and Bernie had 40.

Today, Hillary has 476 to Bernie's 40. What happened to the four? Any news on who withdrew support and why?

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

EDIT: Failure to do simple math this morning, it is four lost.

April 15, 2016

Hillary wants to stand up to Assad like she did to Gaddafi l

Great. What could possibly go wrong if we did to Syria what we did in Libya?

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