Algernon Moncrieff
Algernon Moncrieff's JournalSome interesting statistics
Sources: Kaiser Family Foundation; Real Clear Politics
1) Sanders has won 3 primaries as opposed to 5 caucuses. There is a certain irony here, as many of his supporters were screaming about the caucus process after Iowa and Nevada. Nevertheless, it has seemed to favor him. Note that this total includes his home state of Vermont.
2) Clinton has won 9 primaries and 2 caucuses. Note that this total includes what could be considered her home state of Arkansas. She has links to Arkansas, New York, and Illinois -- so it's hard to say.
3) Delegates: Clinton 658 Sanders 471; Super Delegates Clinton 458 Sanders 22; Total Delegates Clinton 1130 Sanders 499
4) Sanders has not done well in states with high African American/Black populations. Sanders' eight victories have come in states with an average (mean) (per Kaiser Family Foundation statistics) of 3.75%, with a range high of 7% (OK) and low of 1% (several states). Clinton states have an average African American/Black population of 18.09%, with a range high of 31% (two states) and a range low of 3% (Iowa). If this proves to be a statistically accurate indicator, it would tend to predict Clinton victories in the upcoming primaries in Mississippi, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri. Why this has been happening is an interesting question that I suspect Political Scientists will study for a decade.
e.t.a. With the identical caveats, the data would tend to predict that Clinton will lose every state west of the Missouri River that she has not already lost (including California). Again, with the identical caveats, it would also tend to suggest that Clinton would win New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, and Delaware.
Looking at the numbers from the other side, Super Saturday looks bad for Rubio
No wins, and he's finishing in the high teens -- close to Kasich.
Florida won't be his firewall, either.
NE LD 31 Caucus Update
So I caucused this morning . Nebraska legislative district 31. We held the thing at a IBEW hall in West O.
1) Kudos to State Senator Rick Kolowski for presiding in an effective manner.
2) Both sides were civil. The Bernie supports skewed younger and were more boisterous.
3) No O'Malley hold-ons, but someone made an attempt to caucus for Elizabeth Warren. They lost after the first alignment.
4) It was close. Basically 53%-47% Sanders out of 650 +/- votes. Absentees broke about 4-1 Hillary, while the room broke about 5-4 Sanders. Hillary won 7 delegates and Bernie won 9.
5) With the exception of the Warren (later Sanders) supporter shouting at Clinton supporters about the speeches/transcripts, both sides stayed positive and civil.
6) The Sanders side broke into a spontaneous singing of America the Beautiful at one point. Both sides applauded.
Life expectancy in the United States
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/21/us-life-expectancy-oecd_n_4317367.html
e.t.a.
I've come to wish all of you and Senator Sanders all of the best, and to ask a favor
Would you please ban me from your group?
(note, I asked back on Sunday here http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=122530 I assume that most of you have me on "Ignore", so I certainly get the delay).
Normally, DUers would do this by making an obnoxious post against the candidate supported by the group. However, I really don't have too much unkind to say about the Junior Senator from Vermont. I remember listening to his weekly appearances back on Air America, and notwithstanding the fact that I don't support him for President, I think he's an outstanding liberal voice. It's nothing personal, but if I'm to stand up and be counted, I'd like to be counted with those on your banned list.
Since this will most likely be my last appearance in this venue, I'd like to encourage every Democrat/liberal/progressive to work to retake the Senate, and maybe (just maybe) we can save the SCOTUS.
Blessings to all of you, and we'll see how the convention goes.
Kweisi Mfume endorses Hillary Clinton for president (HRC Group)
"From voting rights, to health care, to education, to reforming our criminal justice system and eradicating poverty the need for a proven and time tested leader is more clear today than ever before, he said.
"The basic American principle of equal treatment under law is in many ways still under attack. We need a leader who has stood up and spent time working on our behalf when it wasn't popular. She has used her life to fight for others and not just to make promises.
Mfume, 67, represented Marylands 7th Congressional District from 1987 to 1996, and led the NAACP from 1996 to 2004. He began his career in politics on the Baltimore City Council.
Link to Baltimore Sun article
Clinton's Most Valuable Allies in South Carolina: the Moms of Black Lives Matter (HRC Group)
LINK to article at Mother JonesClinton sealed the deal, they explained, when she met with the five of them last fall in a conference room in Chicago. It was a low-key affair. The candidates' staffers shooed reporters from the room before it began, and Clinton showed up with a notepad to jot down what she heard. They were told they had 30 minutes; the meeting lasted for two hours. "She knew which cases went to jail," Fulton said, when she told the story at the second stop of the day, a church in Sumter. "She knew specifically what happened in our tragedies. She knew that information and she knew because she cares. She cares. Not only does she care about victims of gun violence but she cares about women, she cares about African Americans. She cares!"
"We sat there and collaborated with her and her staffers," Reed-Veal recalled, sounding a little awed. "Our concerns are implemented in her policy. God is good! He was in the room. The Lord was was in the room! And Hillary was that mother, that grandmother, that sister."
That such an event happened at all is a testament to how far the Democratic landscape has shifted not just from 2008when the Clintons cast doubts on the electability of Hillary Clinton's African American opponent ahead of the South Carolina primary and boasted of the then-New York senator's unique strength with white votersbut from the launch of the campaigns last spring. Neither Clinton nor Sanders talked about police violence, incarceration, or gun control in their announcement speeches last spring. It simply wasn't something Democratic presidential candidates felt they needed to talk about. But as they hit the home stretch in South Carolina, it has become a cornerstone of their platforms.
So, DUers - What are we doing here in GD:P, and why are we doing it?
My question to all of us - at this point, what are we doing?
Earlier tonight, I conducted a highly unscientific survey of DUers, and in results that should surprise no one, over 95% of us have pretty well made up our mind on who we are voting for. So whenever we post about how great Hillary or Bernie is, we are officially just preaching to our respective choirs. True-to-DU-form, we make post after post after post about: how third-way Hillary is; Hilary's IWR vote; Bernie's love of the gun lobby; I - VT or D- VT. And I'm as guilty as any of us -- my intent is not to claim to be holier-than -thou here. But we are spending much energy pointing fingers and name calling against one another while ignoring our broad areas of agreement -- about women's rights; about the need to improve the ACA/move toward single payer; about keeping the next three SCOTUS judges from being clones of Sam Alito; about sane immigration policy; about some sense of racial justice in this country.
Another poster (Cali, I think) made a post basically saying (and I'm oversimplifying and paraphrasing) Hillary and Bernie supporters aren't speaking the same language. They just aren't interested in the same things. In a broad sense, I'd agree with that. We tend (again -- making a simplistic generalization) to have differing views on what we want in a President and from the party.
There's nothing wrong with enthusiasm for a candidate. Go Bernie! Go Hillary! However, However, it's pretty clear that both sides are getting on one another's nerves. I'm not a Sanders supporter, but I imagine Bernie supporters are tired of being told their candidate's chances are slim and his supporters are delusional. I am certain that Hillary supporters are really sick of hearing that our candidate is little-better than Ted Cruz.
So, if we've all made up our minds, fine. If we're all going to gloat and vent about primary and caucus results - fine. Here's where I'm coming from: in 2008, Hillary v. Barack got pretty acrimonious; however, we all agreed that the Bush policies had to end. We all got behind President Obama, and he won. It has not been a perfect Presidency, but it's been pretty good, especially considering the congressional headwinds and the mess he inherited in January 2009. I'm probably being overly pessimistic, but I just don' see that now. I see two sides that are pretty embittered with one another.
So I have no idea how the rest off the primaries play out. Will we pretty much know by Super Tuesday? Will this go until June? Whatever it is, I'd like to ask these questions:
If we can't come together on who should be President, can we set aside our differences to get Dems elected to the House and Senate?
Can we at least try to agree that either Clinton or Sanders would be an improvement over Rubio, Cruz, or Trump?
Can we be honest enough with ourselves to admit that both of our candidates, Bernie and Hillary, have some imperfections, drawbacks, and flaws?
How made up is your mind for the Democratic caucuses/primaries??
I'm not asking who you are voting for. I'm asking if there is any point in anyone (at DU or outside of DU) trying to sway you.
Skinner -- since you support HRC, can you be banned by the hosts of the Bernie Sanders group?
I realize this is like asking: If God is all-powerful, can he create a rock so big that He cannot lift it?
..but seriously, can they ban you?
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Member since: Sun Apr 20, 2014, 12:49 AMNumber of posts: 5,790