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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

A great read!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

A great read!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

BTRTN: Can the Dems Really Win Three Red State Governorships Tomorrow?

"There will be many, many elections across the country tomorrow (Tuesday) on Election Day. Our goal here is not to immerse you in Election Day minutiae, but rather to focus on the most consequential elections. And they are the three gubernatorial elections, in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi, and the elections to determine the composition of both chambers of state legislatures in Virginia, Mississippi and Louisiana, and just the General Assembly in New Jersey.

Either party can win the three gubernatorial races, and the Virginia legislature (both chambers) is up for grabs as well. These are truly bellweather election for 2020. (The other legislature contests almost surely will remain under the control of the incumbent party.)

Let’s take a look at each...."


http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-can-dems-really-win-three-red.html

BTRTN: Can the Dems Really Win Three Red State Governorships Tomorrow?

"There will be many, many elections across the country tomorrow (Tuesday) on Election Day. Our goal here is not to immerse you in Election Day minutiae, but rather to focus on the most consequential elections. And they are the three gubernatorial elections, in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi, and the elections to determine the composition of both chambers of state legislatures in Virginia, Mississippi and Louisiana, and just the General Assembly in New Jersey.

Either party can win the three gubernatorial races, and the Virginia legislature (both chambers) is up for grabs as well. These are truly bellweather election for 2020. (The other legislature contests almost surely will remain under the control of the incumbent party.)

Let’s take a look at each...."


http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-can-dems-really-win-three-red.html

BTRTN: Pep Talk to Despairing Democrats -- Trump Can and Will Be Beat

For those of you Dems who think Trump is going to win in 2020, read on:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-pep-talk-to-despairing-democrats.html

"This is how many Democrats size up the 18 candidates remaining in the presidential field: "He’s too old. She’s too left wing. He’s too old AND he’s too left wing. He’s too young and also he’s gay. She was promising but faded. And the rest of them – they’re too low in the polls, at two percent, or less."

And this is how they view Trump: "He won last time when they said he couldn’t. He defies convention. Nothing sticks to him. His supporters are mesmerized and they get out and vote."

And this is what those Democrats conclude on the 2020 election: "We’re going to lose."

The purpose of this article is to convince despairing Democrats that they actually have an excellent chance of defeating Donald Trump in 2020. The facts, as they stand now, to support this assertion are overwhelming..."


BTRTN 2020 Vision: Are We Headed Toward a Biden-Warren Showdown?

The latest from Born to Run the Numbers on the 2020 Election....exhaustive summary of where the race stands:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-2020-vision-are-we-headed-toward.html

BTRTN: The Rise and Fall of American Demagogues...Understanding Donald Trump, His Appeal and Future

"Donald Trump is the prototypical demagogue, as any student of political history can attest. Trump has preyed on those who feel threatened by “the Other” since his first foray into the political arena, as the champion of the Obama birther movement. His presidential run and first-term have been littered with such demagoguery, from the “Mexican rapist” charges that launched the campaign, through the “both sides” Charlottesville refrain, and on to the recent vile attacks on “The Squad” and Elijah Cummings, with countless other thunderous, baseless, fear-mongering claims along the way.

His message is that minorities, in particular immigrants, are dangerous and threatening: at worst, criminals, and at least, job-seeking freeloaders who are crowding out opportunities for White America. It is hardly surprising, though shocking, that Trump’s relentless messaging has inspired the white-supremacist based domestic terrorism that has grown dramatically in the last several years, reaching its apotheosis (we can only hope) in El Paso. Trump has provided the motive; the NRA and GOP has provided the means by enabling our gun-saturated culture; all the perpetrator has to solve for is opportunity; the mighty troika of criminal acts now neatly and tragically packaged with a tidy bow.

Demagogues are not new in American politics. They emerge in times of great stress and enrapture a percentage of the electorate craving attention, by presenting a stark, threatening worldview in a blunt, crude and charismatic style. They have little regard for facts and deliver a wildly inflated, apocalyptic message designed to incite fear -- and establish the demagogue as the savior from the threat of the Other."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-rise-and-fall-of-american.html

BTRTN: The Rise and Fall of American Demagogues...Understanding Donald Trump, His Appeal and Future

"Donald Trump is the prototypical demagogue, as any student of political history can attest. Trump has preyed on those who feel threatened by “the Other” since his first foray into the political arena, as the champion of the Obama birther movement. His presidential run and first-term have been littered with such demagoguery, from the “Mexican rapist” charges that launched the campaign, through the “both sides” Charlottesville refrain, and on to the recent vile attacks on “The Squad” and Elijah Cummings, with countless other thunderous, baseless, fear-mongering claims along the way.

His message is that minorities, in particular immigrants, are dangerous and threatening: at worst, criminals, and at least, job-seeking freeloaders who are crowding out opportunities for White America. It is hardly surprising, though shocking, that Trump’s relentless messaging has inspired the white-supremacist based domestic terrorism that has grown dramatically in the last several years, reaching its apotheosis (we can only hope) in El Paso. Trump has provided the motive; the NRA and GOP has provided the means by enabling our gun-saturated culture; all the perpetrator has to solve for is opportunity; the mighty troika of criminal acts now neatly and tragically packaged with a tidy bow.

Demagogues are not new in American politics. They emerge in times of great stress and enrapture a percentage of the electorate craving attention, by presenting a stark, threatening worldview in a blunt, crude and charismatic style. They have little regard for facts and deliver a wildly inflated, apocalyptic message designed to incite fear -- and establish the demagogue as the savior from the threat of the Other."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/08/btrtn-rise-and-fall-of-american.html

More on Mueller for those of you who think he performed so superbly

From today's episode of NBC's "Meet the Press":

Chuck Todd: "Was there any part of director Mueller's testimony you found unsatisfying?"
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee: "You know, look, I, I wish that he had testified in more narrative fashion, that the words didn't need to be coaxed from him as much as they did."

Flashback: As Alayna foreshadowed in last week's Sneak, House Democrats desperately wanted Mueller to deliver a TV performance that would convince the American public of the urgent need to impeach Donald Trump.

The former special counsel didn't quite live up to their expectations. As Troy Patterson wrote for the New Yorker: "You can put Mueller on television, but, apparently, you can't quite make him do television."

Mueller Was Not Up to the Task -- Not Close

For those of you who think Mueller did a fine job, from the Washington Post:

The WashPost's Matt Zapotosky and Rachael Bade report:

"After Mueller’s halting, sometimes confused testimony, ... some lawmakers are privately wondering ... whether they were right to force him to testify."
"During a break, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) ... warned lawmakers on the second panel to slow down, shorten their questions and speak louder so Mueller could follow better."
Some told the Post they had no choice. "We didn’t invite Robert De Niro to testify. We invited Robert Mueller, and he is a straight shooter who stuck to the report," said Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), referring to "Saturday Night Live" portrayal of Mueller.

Another House Democrat said: "It was a painful reminder that age catches up to all of us."
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