November 4, 2024

If Trump "wins," would you accept him as your president? He didn't accept Obama or Biden as legitimate presidents.

I can never accept a fascist who wants to take away our rights as president.

Added note:
With his false birther claims, Trump didn't accept Obama was a legitimate president.
With his false 2020 election claims, Trump doesn't accept Biden is a legitimate president.
If Trump wins, it is through trying to gaslight the nation, with lies, manipulation, and foreign help.
Why should I accept him as a legitimate president?

November 2, 2024

I'm calling it now! Kamala wins Georgia. 4 million already voted. 5 million TOTAL last time. Women now at 12.1% lead!

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-georgia/


Last Time:
Biden - 2,473,633 - 49.47%
Trump: 2,461,854 - 49.24%

October 31, 2024

Georgia women votes are now 12% ahead of men! Women: 55.6%, Men: 43.6%

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-georgia/

October 31, 2024

Election Betting Odds Manipulated to Favor Trump

The prediction market Polymarket has skyrocketed into mainstream consciousness during the 2024 U.S. elections, with the platform reporting that users have placed $2.7 billion in bets over whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be elected president in early November.

But analysts at two crypto research firms have found evidence of rampant wash trading on Polymarket, even as its odds have been shared widely across social media and mainstream media outlets. Donald Trump currently has a 67% chance of winning, according to the platform.

In separate investigations completed by the blockchain firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital and shared exclusively with Fortune, analysts found that Polymarket activity exhibited signs of wash trading, a form of market manipulation where shares are bought and sold, often simultaneously and repeatedly, to create a false impression of volume and activity. Chaos Labs found that wash trading constituted around one-third of trading volume on Polymarket’s presidential market, while Inca Digital found that a “significant portion of the volume” on the market could be attributed to potential wash trading, according to its report.

“Polymarket’s Terms of Use expressly prohibit market manipulation,” a Polymarket spokesperson said in a statement shared with Fortune after publication. “We strive to provide users with the fairest analysis possible and our transparency allows the market to decide.”

The rise of prediction markets

Founded in 2020 and backed by VCs including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, Polymarket tried to launch electoral betting in the U.S. before being forced offshore by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in early 2022.

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trading-researchers/

October 30, 2024

This is significant! Democrats see signs for optimism in gender gap in early vote

Across battlegrounds, there is a 10-point gender gap in early voting so far: Women account for roughly 55 percent of the early vote, while men are around 45 percent, according to a POLITICO analysis of early vote data in several key states. The implications for next week’s election results are unclear; among registered Republicans, women are voting early more than men, too. But the high female turnout is encouraging to Democratic strategists, who expected that a surge in Republican turnout would result in more gender parity among early voters.

- SNIP

In Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote, according to POLITICO’s analysis and data from the University of Florida’s United States Election Project. Similar gender data is not available for other battlegrounds, including Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.

And polling continues to show that driving up female turnout is, on the whole, helping the vice president. A recent ABC/Ipsos poll shows Harris with a 19 percentage point lead among suburban women, up from 10 points in October and now-President Joe Bidens’ six-point lead in 2020. At the same time, Harris has cut Trump’s 27-point margin of victory in 2020 with white women without a college degree in half, a recent Marist Poll shows.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/29/gender-gap-early-voting-00186155

October 29, 2024

This is significant! Female votes so far: 11.1% more than men in Michigan, 10.1% in North Carolina, 11.7% in Georgia!

Does this mean we win?

Sources:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-michigan/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-georgia/

October 29, 2024

Women voters are 10% ahead of men so far! Does that mean female Repubs are voting Kamala? And does it mean we win?

Source of gender difference:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/

October 26, 2024

When I see people coming out to support Trump, my faith in America and in fellow Americans is shaken.

It's like I can't believe this is happening. I can't believe this could happen to America. And if Trump wins, how can I maintain any kind of relationship with anyone from my wife's (mostly Republican) side of the family? This is about choosing fascism over democracy. The warning signs couldn't be much clearer. I don't think I can face those who make that choice. How do you smile at those people and have a friendly chat, as if this doesn't matter?

October 26, 2024

Menendez Brothers - Do you think they should be resentenced with a possibility of release?

I say absolutely not.