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Member since: Sun Sep 11, 2016, 09:37 PM
Number of posts: 3,406

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Dems retaking Senate may hang on this seat, next best chance is Greenfield in Iowa.

We need 4 seats and likely have 3 (CO, AZ, ME) in the bag. We need one more to make 50 and then VP Harris will be the tie-breaker.

Cal needs to simply come clean and admit he had affairs (there is another woman that came out), apologize and move on.

He needs to stress that while he has had personal failings, Tillis/Trump/McConnell represent a clear and present danger to the country.

IMO it's much better to just mask up and go in and vote.


Most states have early voting, simply go in on a quieter day.

The problem with mail in ballots (especially due to GOP voter suppression tactics) is that many are thrown out for petty technicalities such as a signature not perfectly matching what they have on record.

I agree we should invest in Texas.

more from the article:
For months, Bidenís polling average has consistently been within the margin of error in Texas. And the race continues to tighten. But what is important to understand is since the 2008 election, polling of the Texas electorate has significantly underestimated Democratic performance because, unlike demographically declining states, Texas has a growing, dynamic electorate with many new voters who are younger, more likely to have college degrees and more likely to be people of color ó and often difficult to poll. As a result of this rapid demographic change, Texas is not only more racially diverse and urban than most other swing states, but also more rapidly trending Democratic. Unlike the Rust Belt, where the polls underestimated Trumpís strength on Election Day, the polls in Texas underestimated Hillary Clintonís performance by 4.9 percent.

The modern Dem party is the party of metro areas (urbs and suburbs) and college towns, and Texas has alot of them. The small town centric Rust Belt is trending away from us. Biden is doing much better with non-college whites this time, and we can't continue to hemorrhage such voters in the future. But what is clear is that the Sunbelt (AZ, TX, GA, NC) seems to look more like what the Dem party actually is, rather than what it was.

If Biden were to win TX it actually would be less shocking than it was for Trump to win the Rustbelt, where the polls were wrong due to a failure to catch demographic realignment. It's possible (as the article alludes to) the poll models are also wrong in TX this time for similar reasons, which would mean Biden could win by a few points there.

The article speaks about PA and the chaos that could ensue there - and I agree with that analysis. PA lacks a history of doing mail in voting and even for the in person voting has new machines that could lead to chaos (and hacking). IOW, we should have other paths that don't include PA - and TX should be one of them. OH and IA also look possible.

FL 'should' be the state that does it for us, but it has a Latino population that is more conservative than elsewhere. The Dem party in the state historically has been outsmarted by the GOP there, who seemingly has rigged the state. IOW, FL is not a state we should count on (though should always try to win).

Trump made his own bed

and now has to lie in it. And that would be bad enough but he also made the bed for 200k people who would've been alive had he not tried to pretend the virus away in order to prop up the stock market for his rich friends.

At first there may be a 'sympathy bump' in his approvals, but this situation more than anything vindicates Biden's message of mask wearing and adherence to scientific guidelines which Trump mocked - and this will result in more votes for Biden.

The Boris Johnson situation is different as he actually was contrite, thanked the front-line workers etc. He also iirc won his race convincingly and it was early in his term. In contrast we are less than 30 days before an election and everyone is 'dug in'.

As to what the MAGAts will accept? Who cares - they won't accept anything short of Trump being installed as dictator for life. Trump alone is to blame for his situation we just hope he didn't also infect Joe.

Just vote in person, NY has early voting.


Most states have a site to check your voter registration and lookup polling place. In any state that has early voting people should just go in on a quiet day and wear proper PPE.

States that have typically not used mail-in voting are clearly going to have issues, as they are 'learning on the job', which is worrisome in such states that are swing states.

Agree, Trump and McConnell will just use it to make themselves look

like 'compassionate conservatives', ie 'Trump's really not that bad of a guy after all'. Swing voters who don't understand politics that much will just see it as a Trump win. It undercuts Biden's critique of Trump as an unfeeling rich guy whose selfishness and mismanagement led to 200k deaths.

Trump still has good ratings on the economy despite all that has happened, and I suspect the Cares Act may have something to do with it. IOW, what was an FDR/left-wing type of bill that people should be thanking Dems for - they don't necessarily do that.

We need to wait until after the election to pass anything and simply make it retroactive. Doing anything now could upset the dynamics which doesn't make sense when we're solidly ahead.

Trump came across as a maniac to anyone outside his base

and ultimately was disrespectful to the audience watching at home more than anyone else.

The post debate narrative (which often affects voters more than the debate itself) is terrible for Trump. CNN which is the 'neutral' network was railing against how rude and uncivilized he was. CNN's poll also showed Biden winning the debate by something like 61-28 %.

Trump is like Freddy Krueger

in that he always comes back alive just when you think he's politically dead.

I thought he was finished when the Access Hollywood tapes came out - no way he could come back from it and yet he did. Then Mueller and Ukraine should've done it but it didn't.

Joe is in a good position but realize that most people don't care much about Trump's taxes, but about his horrible record as it relates to their everyday lives, ie his mismanagement of covid which has resulted in 200k dead Americans, his tax cuts for the rich, his assault on healthcare and preexisting conditons and social security/medicare, his disregard for democratic norms, his war on voting, his racial diviseness and chaos, etc. The tax story helps to strengthen Joe's message but by itself can't knock Trump out.

Hillary eviscerated Donnie in the first debate.

Even on RW sites they said he lost badly.

She went after his taxes, his corrupt business practices, his racism/sexism, ties to Putin, etc.

The problem is the second debate became what defined the narrative, where he was 'looming' over her.

Her campaign team overall was weak though, they thought they 'had it' and didn't do much to knock Trump out like he needed to be. It's something I worry a little about also with the Biden camp as well, it has a similar dynamic. The difference is Trump has a record to defend and there are 200k dead due to his lies. Biden also is white man with an appeal to culturally conservative whites, while Hillary is disliked (sexism) by the same demographic.

Won't affect his core base

who don't care what he does as long as he gives them tax cuts, racism, judges, etc. He's a corrupt thug but he's 'their thug' ie the 'bodyguard of Western civilization' like he said at the convention.

It could affect some of his soft support ie moderate suburbanites and small business people who pay alot of taxes. In a polarized country decided by relatively small margins, if it shifts even 2% of the electorate or so in our direction that is something. We'll see.
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