nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalThank You Jesus for giving me a wonderful birthday present.- Jones-D defeats Moore-R.
Will Moore join NAMGLA?
AL voters are better off electing Jones to the US Senate and here is why.
If Jones wins tonight, he will be in the US Senate for 3 years. He will lose re-election in 2020 to a non controversial hard right conservative Republican challenger-Mo Brooks or Roger Aderholt.
If Moore wins tonight, he will be in the US Senate for more than 3 years. It is highly unlikely the US Senate will expel Moore or lose in the Republican primary.
2017 AL US Senate Race- If Jones-D wins,- any chance his margin of victory will be like
Seigelman's -D margin of victory in the 1998 AL Governors Race against then sitting Republican Governor Fob James-R. Seigelman-D won the 1998 AL Governors Race by a 15.8 percent margin.
Could Jones-D win today's US Senate Election by a 55-40-5 percent margin?
2017 AL Senate Race will be similar to 1996 AL Senate Race and 2002 AL Governors Race.
1996 was the last open and competitive US Senate Race in AL.
Sessions-R received 52.5%
Bedford-D received 45.5%
2002 was the last competitive Governors Race in AL
Riley-R received 49.2%
Seigelman-D received 49%
Moore-R will receive 51%
Jones-D will receive 47%
Write ins will receive 2%
Who is going to be the next US Senator from AL?
The guy who preaches but does not practice teen abstinence.
The guy who prosecutes civil rights violators.
2020 US Presidential Election-Electoral College Tie.
Democratic Ticket wins
CA-55
CO-9(64)
CT-7(71)
DE-3(74)
DC-3(77)
HI-4(81)
IL-20(101)
ME-3(104)
MD-10(114)
MA-11(125)
MI-16(141)
MN-10(151)
NE-1(152)
NV-6(158)
NH-4(162)
NJ-14(176)
NM-5(181)
NY-29(210)
OR-7(217)
PA-20(237)
RI-4(241)
VT-3(244)
VA-13(257)
WA-12(269)
US House Delegation
AL-R 1
AK-R 2
AZ-D 1
AR-R 3
CA-D 2
CO-D 3
CT-D 4
DE-D 5
FL-R 4
GA-R 5
HI-D 6
ID-R 6
IL-D 7
IN-R 7
IA-Tie
KS-R 8
KY-R 9
LA-R 10
ME-Tie
MD-D 8
MA-D 9
MI-R 11
MN-D 10
MS-R 12
MO-R 13
MT-R 14
NE-R 15
NV-D 11
NH-D 12
NJ-D 13
NM-D 14
NY-D 15
NC-R 16
ND-R 17
OH-R 18
OK-R 19
OR-D 16
PA-R 20
RI-D 17
SC-R 21
SD-R 22
TN-R 23
TX-R 24
UT-R 25
VT-D 18
VA-R 26
WA-D 19
WV-R 27
WI-R 28
WY-R 29
Trump-R wins the Presidency again.
Democrats will win the Vice Presidency.
Democrats have majority of the seats in US Senate in 2020.
The 2020 CO US Senate Race will give Democrats majority control of the US Senate.
2017
Democrats narrowly lose AL(Jones-D) on Tuesday.
2018
Democrats win by a landslide margin.
CA-Feinstein-D 23
CT-Murphy-D 24
DE-Carper-D 25
HI-Hirono-D 26
ME-King-I/D 27
MD-Cardin-D 28
MA-Warren-D 29
MI-Stabenow-D 30
MN-Klobuchar-D 31
NM-Heinrich-D 32
NY-Gillibrand-D 33
RI-Whitehouse-D 34
VT-Sanders-I/D 35
WA-Cantwell-D 36
Democrats win by a low double digit margin.
MN-Swanson-D 37
NJ-Menendez-D 38
PA-Casey-D 39
VA-Kaine-D 40
Democrats win by a high single digit margin.
AZ-Sinema-D 41(Ward-R is the Republican nominee)
MT-Tester-D 42
NV-Rosen-D 43
ND-Heitkamp-D 44
WV-Manchin-D 45
WI-Baldwin-D 46
Democrats win by a narrow margin
FL-Nelson-D 47 vs Scott-R
IN-Donnelly-D 48
MO-McCaskill-D 49
OH-Brown-D 50
Democrats will have a 50-50 tie in the US Senate after 2018
2020
Democrats hold onto
DE-Coons-D 40
IL-Durbin-D 41
MA-Markey-D 42
MI-Peters-D 43
MN-Swanson-D 44
NH-Shaheen-D 45
NJ-Booker-D 46
NM-Udall-D 47
OR-Merkley-D 48
RI-Reed-D 49
VA-Warner-D 50
Republican held US Senate seat Democrats will pick up in 2020.
CO-Hickenlooper-D or Perlmutter-D 51
Republican held US Senate seats that will be in a Tossup collumn.
AZ(McCain-R) Kelly or Stanton-D vs McSally-R
MT- Bullock-D vs Daines-R
NC-Foxx-D vs Tillis-R
2020 Democratic Presidential Ticket- Tulsi Gabbard-HI/Julian Castro-TX.
Gabbard- First Female, First Hindu Presidential Nominee, Military Veteran, Bernie Sanders 2016 supporter.
Castro- First Hispanic Vice Presidential Nominee.
Gabbard/Castro wins
DC-3
HI-4(7)
CA-55(62)
MA-11(73)
MD-10(83)
VT-3(86)
NY-29(115)
IL-20(135)
WA-12(147)
RI-4(151)
ME1cd-1(152)
NJ-14(166)
CT-7(173)
DE-3(176)
OR-7(183)
NM-5(188)
VA-13(201)
CO-9(210)
ME-2(212)
NV-6(218)
FL-29(247) Thanks to high Latino turnout(Castro) and Gabbard's military record.
AZ-11(258) Thanks to high Latino turnout(Castro) and Gabbard's military record.
Gabbard's path to 270 is
MN-10 and NH-4(272ev) States Clinton narrowly won in 2016.
MI-16(274ev)
PA-20(278ev)
NC-15(273ev)
FL-29,NC-15,and AZ-11 are the 3 states Gabbard/Castro needs to carry to win the 2020 US Presidential Election.
2018 US Senate Election-Democratic Nominee in every seat up in 2018.
AZ-Sinema-D Slight Democratic with McSally-R,Lean Democratic with Ward-R
AR special- Beebe-D Lean Republican
CA-Feinstein-D Solid Democratic
CT-Murphy-D Solid Democratic
DE-Carper-D Solid Democratic
FL-Nelson-D Slight Democratic with Scott-R, Likely Democratic without Scott-R
HI-Hirono-D Solid Democratic
IN-Donnelly-D Slight Democratic
ME-King-I/D Solid Independent/Democratic
MD-Cardin-D Solid Democratic
MA-Warren-D Solid Democratic
MI-Stabenow-D Solid Democratic
MN regular-Klobuchar-D Solid Democratic
MN special-Swanson-D Lean Democratic
MS- Presley-D Solid Republican with Wicker-R, Likely Republican with McDaniel-R
MO-McCaskill-D Slight Democratic
MT-Tester-D Lean Democratic
NE-Raybould-D Solid Republican
NV-Rosen-D Slight Democratic with Heller-R, Lean Democratic with Tarkanian-R
NJ-Menendez-D Likely Democratic
NM-Heinrich-D Likely Democratic with the possibility of Martinez-R or Sanchez-R being the Republican Nominee.
NY-Gillibrand-D Solid Democratic
ND-Heitkamp-D Lean Democratic
OH-Brown-D Lean Democratic
PA-Casey-D Likely Democratic
RI-Whitehouse-D Solid Democratic
TN-Bredensen-D Lean Republican
TX-O'Rourke-D Lean Republican
UT-Wilson-D Solid Republican
VT-Sanders-I/D Solid Independent/Democratic
VA-Kaine-D Likely Democratic
WA-Cantwell-D Solid Democratic
WV-Manchin-D Lean Democratic
WI-Baldwin-D Likely Democratic
WY-Trauner-D Solid Republican
2018 and 2020 US Senate Election-number of seats Democrats will have after 2018 and 2020.
2018
23)AL-Jones-D
24)AZ-Sinema-D
25)CA-Feinstein-D
26)CT-Murphy-D
27)DE-Carper-D
28)FL-Nelson-D
29)HI-Hirono-D
30)IN-Donnelly-D
31)ME-King-I/D
32)MD-Cardin-D
33)MA-Warren-D
34)MI-Stabenow-D
35)MN-Klobuchar-D
36)MN-Swanson-D
37)MO-McCaskill-D
38)MT-Tester-D
39)NV-Rosen-D
40)NJ-Menendez-D
41)NM-Udall-D
42)NY-Gillibrand-D
43)ND-Heitkamp-D
44)OH-Brown-D
45)PA-Casey-D
46)RI-Whitehouse-D
47)VT-Sanders-I/D
48)VA-Kaine-D
49)WA-Cantwell-D
50)WV-Manchin-D
51)WI-Baldwin-D
2020
40)AZ-Kelly-D
41)CO-Hickenlooper-D
42)DE-Coons-D
43)IL-Durbin-D
44)MA-Markey-D
45)MI-Peters-D
46)MN-Swanson-D
47)MT-Bullock-D
48)NH-Shaheen-D
49)NJ-Booker-D
50)NM-Udall-D
51)NC-Wood-D
52)OR-Merkley-D
53)RI-Reed-D
54)VA-Warner-D
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