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JT45242

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Member since: Thu Nov 1, 2018, 01:54 PM
Number of posts: 764

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Math lesson about Nevada results lesss than 2% turnout total

Since the complete results aren't in, I'll round up a little.

Sanders = 6,600
Biden = 3,000
Buttigieg = 2,000
Warren = 1,400

So a total of about 13,000 votes were cast in this caucus out of a total of 698,044 registered Democrats in Nevada (https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8344). So, voter turnout (assuming no republican cross over) was 1.9%.

So, Bernie who clearly energized the voters of Nevada got 0.945% of eligible Democrats to vote for him in the caucus. Yeah that sounds promising.

Let's pump the brakes here...

This again shows that caucuses drive down turnout from a traditional primary where people can vote when it is convenient around their work and life schedules.

Another tiny state (1.8 million registered voters total) going early having an overly large influence on fundraising and perception.


For all the talk of front-runner - let's think of where they are -- 1.6% of the delegates have been

There are 3979 delegates to win -- so far 64 have been awarded. That is 1.6% of the race.

For all this talk of front-runners and 'dead in the water' campaigns for Biden and Warren -- let's take a breather and think.


% earned of needed to win
23 Buttigieg 1.2%
21 Sanders 1.1%
8 Warren 0.4%
7 Klobuchar 0.4%
6 Biden 0.3%


The same networks that wouldn't dare to call a state race with 1.6% of the vote in are willing to declare this a two person race. Again, let's draw the analogy to calling a state race. These are the two little niche towns with basically all-white populations that don't look like the rest of the state. (I say that as someone who currently lives in Iowa).

Last night, Joshua Johnson (I think) who used to be on NPR said he wouldn't even call Iowa and NH two data points -- they are too similar to be different. This is the same 93% plus white vote measured twice. Let's see how things go when there are more people of color. Florida will have more women of color vote in their primary than all teh votes of New Hampshire.

Let's not forget that in NH many people vote who aren't really Democrats -- that may be pride (NH are said to be proud to be above party affiliations) or that may be Republicans trying to mess with the process -- no one knows for sure how many fall into each category.

The bottom line is support who you want now, get behind them in the general and vote out every complicit Republican at the natioonal level, or the purges at the DOJ and DOD will simply escalate.

My only caveat to this is whether all this press over a non-representative sample of 1.6% of the delegates will drive money in ways that eliminate good candidates with good ideas. Since money drives politics on both sides, let's hope that the 5 left plus Bloomberg can try to articulate a winning platform with voters. We aren't going to convince Trump voters -- don't kid yourselves -- we just need the largest group of voters in the last Presidential election (DID NOT VOTE AT ALL) to show up to get rid of that moron in the White House. That is the big issue -- how do GET OUT THE VOTE -- it certainly isn't about fretting over the tiny virtually all white populations of Iowa and NH.

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