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bluewater

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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 2,545

Journal Archives

Bloomberg catches Mayor Pete at RCP Polls!

According to RCP Polls, Bloomberg and Mayor Pete are now tied at 7.7% polling average.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

It's the battle of the Mayors!

New York City experience versus South Bend experience.

Self-financed Billionaire campaign versus Wine Cave Donors.

How exciting!

538: Voters who prioritize beating Trump thought Warren did best

Voters who prioritize beating Trump thought Warren did best

How debate-watchers scored candidates’ performances (on a four-point scale where higher is better) in the January Democratic debate, by which type of candidate they prefer



VOTER PREFERS A CANDIDATE WHO …
CANDIDATE SHARES STANCE ON ISSUES CAN BEAT TRUMP

Warren 3.0 3.4
Biden 2.6 3.1
Buttigieg 2.7 3.1
Sanders 3.1 3.1
Klobuchar 2.6 3.0
Steyer 2.7 3.0


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-january-democratic-debate-in-6-charts/

WOW!

538 Debate Poll: Warren had the BEST performance

Warren had the best debate performance

?

Warren got high marks

First up, who viewers thought had the best debate performance. To answer this, we compared candidates’ pre-debate favorability ratings1 to how well respondents who watched the debate thought the candidates performed. Candidates are graded on a four-point scale where higher numbers are better; comparing those grades to favorability ratings helps us adjust our expectations, since people may be inclined to view well-liked candidates in a positive light. Warren got the highest marks for her performance on Tuesday night, and they were strong enough to be impressive even after you account for her high favorability. That represents an improvement for her, after she fell slightly below expectations during the December debate. Sanders, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Biden didn’t do poorly per se, but because they were already well-liked, we expected a lot of voters to view their debate performance favorably.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-january-democratic-debate-in-6-charts/

Warren was very impressive last night and 538's poll shows that!

Nice!

Warren is back!

Facebook Says It Won't Back Down From Allowing Lies in Political Ads

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1216092526173659147

Defying pressure from Congress, Facebook said on Thursday that it would continue to allow political campaigns to use the site to target advertisements to particular slices of the electorate and that it would not police the truthfulness of the messages sent out.

The stance put Facebook, the most important digital platform for political ads, at odds with some of the other large tech companies, which have begun to put new limits on political ads.

Facebook’s decision, telegraphed in recent months by executives, is likely to harden criticism of the company heading into this year’s presidential election.


Sigh.

The generational gap among black Democrats is very revealing

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1216018625842360320

Interesting.

So...

Sanders + Warren have 48% of Black Democrats age 18 to 34 to Biden's 30%

Sanders + Warren have 31% of Black Democrats age 35 to 49 to Biden's 41%



That leaves open the possibility the age 50-64 bracket might be persuadable away from Biden by younger family members.

Time will tell if early voting results from Iowa and New Hampshire have an effect on this dynamic.

2020 ad spending

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1215713394831110149

Hmm.

Steyer might just be showing that money can by you love... from primary voters.





Podium order for the CNN/DMR debate Tuesday in Iowa

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1216035115865866240

Nice!

I am looking forward to this, the smallest Democratic primary debate to date.

Miss Black America Ryann Richardson endorses Pete Buttigieg for POTUS.

https://twitter.com/theGrio/status/1215717447778676737

This is a significant endorsement for Mayor Pete.

Her opinion piece is well worth reading.

Cory Booker calls out the Misogyny!

https://twitter.com/CoryBooker/status/1215341126695247873

Great job, Cory.

lol

But, yeah, women candidates are held to a different standard than their male counterparts.

Same old same old.


Winning both Iowa and New Hampshire would catapult Mayor Pete

To front runner status.

Despite declining national polls, the publicity Mayor Pete would get by winning both Iowa and New Hampshire would be a tremendous boost for his campaign going forward.

Exceeding expectations in the early voting states more often than not proves decisive in later primaries, with the few exceptions proving the rule.

Some Mayor Pete detractors counter this argument by pointing out that he would probably lose decisively in South Carolina. But those detractors fail to acknowledge that the South Carolina Democratic primary is atypical, with 66% of the voters expected to be African Americans, a considerably higher proportion than in any other state primary.

Mayor Pete is surging, and yes, I mean surging, right now in Iowa and New Hampshire. He has had superb fundraising to fuel a well orchestrated ground game in both states. It is not inconceivable that he could win both states by at least 5%.

Mayor Pete's role as the first openly gay Presidential candidate makes him a truly transformational figure in American politics. Transformational candidates break down societal barriers and Mayor Pete deserves full credit for being one. The energy this all brings to his campaign is perhaps being underestimated by the national polling that often is overly impacted by name recognition among inattentive voters.


Well, if Mayor Pete achieves big wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, his name recognition will certainly change.



Time will tell.

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