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bluewater
bluewater's Journal
bluewater's Journal
October 13, 2019
https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1183418586586669058
As Harris declines in the polls, her voters are shoring up Warren's position
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1183490642451816448https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1183418586586669058
G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Data journalist for @TheEconomist. I write mostly about polls, elections & political science. Past @pewmethods @UTAustin. Newsletter: http://thecrosstab.substack.com
@gelliottmorris
Data journalist for @TheEconomist. I write mostly about polls, elections & political science. Past @pewmethods @UTAustin. Newsletter: http://thecrosstab.substack.com
October 13, 2019
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-democratic-polls-elizabeth-warren-extends-lead-across-early-states-new-hampshire-draws-even-with-biden-in-iowa/
CBS NEWS: Warren leads in Early States Delegate Projection
Early-state Democratic voters say President Trump's allegations against Joe Biden have not affected their views of Biden and largely think they aren't true. Even so, it's Elizabeth Warren who continues to draw support from Democrats. She has extended the aggregate lead she had in this poll last month across the 18 early primary and caucus states.
As for individual states, she has increased her lead over the pack in New Hampshire and pulled even with Biden in Iowa. And Warren leads in our delegate model over Biden, too, demonstrating that she's competitive in many regions.
As for individual states, she has increased her lead over the pack in New Hampshire and pulled even with Biden in Iowa. And Warren leads in our delegate model over Biden, too, demonstrating that she's competitive in many regions.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-democratic-polls-elizabeth-warren-extends-lead-across-early-states-new-hampshire-draws-even-with-biden-in-iowa/
October 12, 2019
The Economist aggregate poll tracker has a more sophisticated presentation and offers a lot more information about the candidates with different demographic groups.
For a more detailed description of this great tool, see this article posted on DailyKos. it's from August, so it's talking about old polling results from back then, but it details many of the cool features available:
No, the latest poll is not blockbuster news. The Economist has the best aggregate.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/27/1881793/-No-the-latest-poll-is-not-blockbuster-news-The-Economist-has-the-best-aggregate-1-2-3-B-W-S
Warren has taken the "lead" in The Economist's average of 2020 Democratic primary polls
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1182824571680051200The Economist aggregate poll tracker has a more sophisticated presentation and offers a lot more information about the candidates with different demographic groups.
It takes into account each poll's margin of error, it's sampling size and how recent it was -- the chart display shows each candidates margin of error range along with their weighted average as it changes over time.
For example, Warren 25 (22-28) shows the average and the upper and lower margin of error confidence levels in the parentheses.
For example, Warren 25 (22-28) shows the average and the upper and lower margin of error confidence levels in the parentheses.
For a more detailed description of this great tool, see this article posted on DailyKos. it's from August, so it's talking about old polling results from back then, but it details many of the cool features available:
No, the latest poll is not blockbuster news. The Economist has the best aggregate.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/27/1881793/-No-the-latest-poll-is-not-blockbuster-news-The-Economist-has-the-best-aggregate-1-2-3-B-W-S
Check out The Economist's aggregate tracker for yourself at:
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
October 10, 2019
While his age, 76, has been mentioned as an issue, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are also in his age group -- and yet their age, until Sanders' recent heart attack, has not emerged as a factor.
But what has proven a roadblock for Biden's support among young people of color is the shelf life of his mindset, his decades-old sentiments on race, society and politics that seem to lock him into the 1960s and 1970s. Add to that Biden's perceived persona of white moderation that tells black people we should move in baby steps rather than seek aggressive and immediate change.
During the third Democratic debate, when asked about slavery and reparations, Biden responded with references to black parents unable to raise their children, and by telling them to "make sure you have the record player on at night." At that moment, Biden sounded out of touch -- more like a white man blaming black people for their
oppression.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/10/opinions/biden-generational-divide-black-voters-love/index.html
Biden is creating a generational divide among black voters
While polls suggest Joe Biden leads among black voters, please read the fine print. Although Barack Obama's vice president touts his African-American support by saying "I think they know me," in reality that support is conditional, more specifically generational, and therefore flimsy and tenuous.
Biden enjoys widespread support among older black adults, leaving some younger black voters to try to convince their parents and grandparents to change their ways and shift their vote for the 2020 election.
Black millennials and Gen Z-ers are proactively attempting to sway their elder family members away from Biden and towards progressive candidates, as the New York Times reported in September. While it's unclear if the attempt to specifically sway older black voters is working, according to an October Quinnipiac poll, Biden's support among black registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters has dropped 17 points since their July poll.
Biden has downplayed this black generational gap, suggesting the votes of older and moderate blacks are all he may need to get him over the top. However, it should come as no surprise that Biden has a young black people problem.
Biden has downplayed this black generational gap, suggesting the votes of older and moderate blacks are all he may need to get him over the top. However, it should come as no surprise that Biden has a young black people problem.
While his age, 76, has been mentioned as an issue, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are also in his age group -- and yet their age, until Sanders' recent heart attack, has not emerged as a factor.
But what has proven a roadblock for Biden's support among young people of color is the shelf life of his mindset, his decades-old sentiments on race, society and politics that seem to lock him into the 1960s and 1970s. Add to that Biden's perceived persona of white moderation that tells black people we should move in baby steps rather than seek aggressive and immediate change.
During the third Democratic debate, when asked about slavery and reparations, Biden responded with references to black parents unable to raise their children, and by telling them to "make sure you have the record player on at night." At that moment, Biden sounded out of touch -- more like a white man blaming black people for their
oppression.
David A. Love is a writer, commentator, and journalism and media studies professor based in Philadelphia. He contributes to a variety of outlets, including Atlanta Black Star, ecoWURD and Al Jazeera. Follow him on Twitter: @DavidALove. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his. View more opinion articles on CNN.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/10/opinions/biden-generational-divide-black-voters-love/index.html
October 10, 2019
The optics of all this is not helping the Biden Campaign.
David Axelrod talks w John Heilemann about Hunter Biden's impact
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1181930402853900293The optics of all this is not helping the Biden Campaign.
October 10, 2019
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-leads-in-north-carolina-poll-campaign-update/ar-AAIwP5b
Hmmmmm... let's see what people on Twitter are saying about this "planner" swipe:
https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1182057727620714497
https://twitter.com/hencexox/status/1182067334636347392
https://twitter.com/_HighThunder_/status/1182094893864439813
Biden Swipes at Warren With 'Planner' Remark
Seeking to draw a contrast with Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden said Wednesday that the country is “not electing a planner.”
Warren, who is statistically tied with Biden in recent state and national polls, has released a flurry of policy proposals, a practice that has developed into a campaign slogan: “Warren’s got a plan for that.”
For the most part, Biden has refrained from criticizing his rivals, but his rebuke of Warren may signal a more aggressive approach as he seeks to regain his lead in the polls.
“More important than my plan is my promise: I will get this done,” Biden, who is trying to position himself as a more moderate pragmatist, said Wednesday evening in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Later, he continued, “There is no one in this race who has a stronger record of passing important, consequential legislation than I have.”
Warren, who is statistically tied with Biden in recent state and national polls, has released a flurry of policy proposals, a practice that has developed into a campaign slogan: “Warren’s got a plan for that.”
For the most part, Biden has refrained from criticizing his rivals, but his rebuke of Warren may signal a more aggressive approach as he seeks to regain his lead in the polls.
“More important than my plan is my promise: I will get this done,” Biden, who is trying to position himself as a more moderate pragmatist, said Wednesday evening in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Later, he continued, “There is no one in this race who has a stronger record of passing important, consequential legislation than I have.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-leads-in-north-carolina-poll-campaign-update/ar-AAIwP5b
Hmmmmm... let's see what people on Twitter are saying about this "planner" swipe:
https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1182057727620714497
https://twitter.com/hencexox/status/1182067334636347392
https://twitter.com/_HighThunder_/status/1182094893864439813
October 9, 2019
And just a tease of their current results:
Biden 25%, Warren 24%, Sanders 15%, Buttigieg 6%, Harris 5%, Yang 4%
This site definitely looks like another great tool to with which to follow the 2020 Democratic Nomination process!
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
WOW! Check out the classy Economist Poll Tracking site!
It's very well done, breaks down poll averages by all voting demographics, looks great and is easy to follow, and shows average poll results for things like whom else voters are considering.
They describe their approach as:
Above, we have calculated support for each candidate by aggregating publicly available, high-quality opinion polls. We include only surveys from pollsters who conduct their interviews over the phone with a live interviewer—rather than with automated machine recording—or that use rigorous and well-documented online methods.
Methodology
We estimate support for each candidate using a statistical method called Bayesian dynamic Dirichlet regression. The model aggregates polls over the course of the campaign, putting more weight on polls conducted recently, less on those with small sample sizes and accounting for “house effects”—the tendency for some polling firms to over- or underestimate support for certain candidates. We exclude polling firms that do not use rigorous methods. In the past, surveys conducted over the phone with a live interviewer or with online survey-takers that use well-thought-out methodologies have been more reliable than other methods.
Methodology
We estimate support for each candidate using a statistical method called Bayesian dynamic Dirichlet regression. The model aggregates polls over the course of the campaign, putting more weight on polls conducted recently, less on those with small sample sizes and accounting for “house effects”—the tendency for some polling firms to over- or underestimate support for certain candidates. We exclude polling firms that do not use rigorous methods. In the past, surveys conducted over the phone with a live interviewer or with online survey-takers that use well-thought-out methodologies have been more reliable than other methods.
And just a tease of their current results:
Biden 25%, Warren 24%, Sanders 15%, Buttigieg 6%, Harris 5%, Yang 4%
This site definitely looks like another great tool to with which to follow the 2020 Democratic Nomination process!
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
October 9, 2019
Some of Trump’s election-related moves have been transparent. When Biden’s team launched a $6 million ad buy across Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina calling the president “unhinged,” for example, the president’s campaign was right there to counter the effort, unleashing its own ads targeting the former vice president in the same group of states.
Other calculations have been less overt.
Warren’s rise this summer surprised Trump’s inner circle, who counted her out after her widely panned reveal of the results of a DNA test to prove her Native American ancestry following sustained trolling by Trump.
But as Warren’s fundraising and recent polling occasionally surpassed Biden’s, members of Trump’s campaign and political operation began to see her as a more formidable candidate, even as the odds-on favorite to eventually face off against the president.
“It’s impossible not to notice that Elizabeth Warren has moved significantly in the polls,” one Trump campaign official said. “Our job is to be ready.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumpworld-only-has-eyes-for-elizabeth-warren-and-joe-biden
Both Warren or Biden will beat tRump like a drum. Our long national nightmare of the Trump presidency is going to end in 2020.
Trumpworld Only Has Eyes for Warren and Biden
As Democrats compete for the 2020 nomination in a field that’s shown only flashes of winnowing, Republicans have set their sights squarely on the duo they think could realistically earn the party’s top spot to compete against President Donald Trump: former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).
Interviews with nearly a dozen senior Republicans, including top officials and strategists on Trump’s re-election campaign and GOP operatives directly familiar with internal deliberations, reveal the president’s party believes the top contenders for the Democratic nomination are unlikely to change. Barring some unforeseen event that would scramble the current field, the long-term strategic moves are centered around a Biden or Warren primary win
.
Some of Trump’s election-related moves have been transparent. When Biden’s team launched a $6 million ad buy across Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina calling the president “unhinged,” for example, the president’s campaign was right there to counter the effort, unleashing its own ads targeting the former vice president in the same group of states.
Other calculations have been less overt.
Warren’s rise this summer surprised Trump’s inner circle, who counted her out after her widely panned reveal of the results of a DNA test to prove her Native American ancestry following sustained trolling by Trump.
But as Warren’s fundraising and recent polling occasionally surpassed Biden’s, members of Trump’s campaign and political operation began to see her as a more formidable candidate, even as the odds-on favorite to eventually face off against the president.
“It’s impossible not to notice that Elizabeth Warren has moved significantly in the polls,” one Trump campaign official said. “Our job is to be ready.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumpworld-only-has-eyes-for-elizabeth-warren-and-joe-biden
Both Warren or Biden will beat tRump like a drum. Our long national nightmare of the Trump presidency is going to end in 2020.
VOTE BLUE, NO MATTER WHO.
October 9, 2019
She added: “This was 1971, years before Congress outlawed pregnancy discrimination — but we know it still happens in subtle and not-so-subtle ways. We can fight back by telling our stories. I tell mine on the campaign trail, and I hope to hear yours.”
Ms. Warren did not name the principal in her tweets. News accounts show that the principal at the time was Edward Pruzinsky. He died in 1999.
Ms. Warren has frequently cited her experience with pregnancy discrimination as she has laid out her political biography to voters, explaining why she went from a public-school teaching career into law and eventually politics, and how her professional development was affected by a form of workplace bias that many women encounter.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/08/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-fired-pregnant.html
Elizabeth Warren Details Her Account of Losing Teaching Job Because of Pregnancy
It is one of Elizabeth Warren’s signature anecdotes in her stump speech: By the end of her first year as a public-school teacher, she was “visibly pregnant,” and the principal wished her luck and hired another teacher to replace her.
In recent days, a conservative news site and other outlets have cited evidence that challenges her account, including past remarks by Ms. Warren in which she did not mention being forced to leave the school and minutes from a school board meeting showing that her contract was initially extended for the next school year.
Ms. Warren is now pushing back against any suggestion that she has misrepresented the circumstances of her departure, and pointing to the discrimination that many pregnant women have faced on the job.
The school board did extend her contract early in her pregnancy, before the school knew about it, she said in an interview with CBS News. But two months later, when it was clear that she was pregnant, she lost the job.
“When I was 22 and finishing my first year of teaching, I had an experience millions of women will recognize,” she wrote on Twitter. “By June I was visibly pregnant — and the principal told me the job I’d already been promised for the next year would go to someone else.”
She added: “This was 1971, years before Congress outlawed pregnancy discrimination — but we know it still happens in subtle and not-so-subtle ways. We can fight back by telling our stories. I tell mine on the campaign trail, and I hope to hear yours.”
Ms. Warren did not name the principal in her tweets. News accounts show that the principal at the time was Edward Pruzinsky. He died in 1999.
Ms. Warren has frequently cited her experience with pregnancy discrimination as she has laid out her political biography to voters, explaining why she went from a public-school teaching career into law and eventually politics, and how her professional development was affected by a form of workplace bias that many women encounter.
Historically, it was common for American teachers to be pushed out of their jobs during pregnancy, either through termination or the requirement of an unpaid leave of absence.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/08/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-fired-pregnant.html
October 9, 2019
The debate will take place in prime time on Nov. 20, and will air live on MSNBC and Radio One. It will also stream on MSNBC.com and the Post’s website, as well as across mobile devices via NBC News and the Post’s mobile apps and Urban One’s digital platforms.
The specific location, venue, format and moderators will be announced at a later date.
The Democratic National Committee toughened the polling and fundraising thresholds for this fifth debate, as I noted last month:
Nor will the new polling requirements (3 percent in four specified national or early state polls, or 5 percent in two early state polls, beginning with polls taken last week and running until seven days before the November debate) represent a problem for the stronger candidates, who almost always poll above three percent (a group that currently includes Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris. But some next-tier hopefuls could experience some problems.
At this point, eight candidates have qualified for the November stage: the aforementioned five polling champs, plus Cory Booker, Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang (who got his fourth qualifying poll just today). Others have until November 13 to make the cut.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/november-debate-whos-in-whos-out.html
November Debate Taking Shape With Eight Qualifiers
Even as contestants prepare for next week’s 12-candidate Democratic debate at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio, the November event is beginning to come together as well, as NBC News reports:
MSNBC and The Washington Post will co-host the fifth Democratic presidential primary debate in Georgia next month, MSNBC announced Tuesday.
The debate will take place in prime time on Nov. 20, and will air live on MSNBC and Radio One. It will also stream on MSNBC.com and the Post’s website, as well as across mobile devices via NBC News and the Post’s mobile apps and Urban One’s digital platforms.
The specific location, venue, format and moderators will be announced at a later date.
The Democratic National Committee toughened the polling and fundraising thresholds for this fifth debate, as I noted last month:
The thresholds for “grassroots fundraising” didn’t change that much: Candidates must now show they have at some point in the cycle raised money from 160,000 donors (as opposed to 130,000, previously) with at least 600 (previously 400) in 20 states….
Nor will the new polling requirements (3 percent in four specified national or early state polls, or 5 percent in two early state polls, beginning with polls taken last week and running until seven days before the November debate) represent a problem for the stronger candidates, who almost always poll above three percent (a group that currently includes Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris. But some next-tier hopefuls could experience some problems.
At this point, eight candidates have qualified for the November stage: the aforementioned five polling champs, plus Cory Booker, Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang (who got his fourth qualifying poll just today). Others have until November 13 to make the cut.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/november-debate-whos-in-whos-out.html
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