15% Is Not A Magic Number For Primary Delegates

If you hear the phrase “delegate math” and remember 2016, you might have some nightmares. That’s because Republicans, who briefly kinda sorta looked like they might have a contested convention, have incredibly complicated delegate-allocation rules. Some states were winner-take-all in the GOP primaries. Some were proportional. Some states didn’t even really vote at all (!) or had voters chose delegates directly. It was a mess.

Democratic delegate rules are far more uniform from state to state — and they’re much simpler. But there are a couple of nuances that I can imagine people are going to get wrong.

One of them concerns the 15 percent threshold, which is a number that you’re going to be hearing a lot about. Democrats allocate their delegates proportionately among candidates who get 15 percent or more of the vote in a given state or district. So, for instance, if Bernie Sanders gets 42 percent of the vote in a certain state, Kamala Harris gets 18 percent, Joe Biden gets 14 percent, Pete Buttigieg gets 11 percent, Cory Booker gets 10 percent and Marianne Williamson gets 5 percent, then only Sanders and Harris would get state-level delegates, with Sanders getting 70 percent of the delegates1 and Harris getting the other 30 percent.

The part that’s easy to miss is in that term state-level delegates. In the Democratic primaries, only about 35 percent of delegates are actually allocated at the state level. The remaining 65 percent are allocated by district — usually by congressional district, although some states use different methods such as by county (Montana and Delaware) or state legislative districts (Texas and New Jersey).
This can make a big difference. In the example above, for instance, if Biden were to get 14 percent of the vote statewide, he probably would get some delegates because he’d likely be at or above 15 percent in at least some districts.

How many delegates is harder to say; it depends on how much variation there is from district to district. But for some rough guidance, I looked back at candidates who finished with between 10 and 20 percent of the vote in the Republican primaries in 20162 in states that allocated some of their delegates by congressional district.3 In the average district, there was about a 3-point gap between a candidate’s statewide vote share and that candidate’s districtwide vote share.

By performing a little math,4 we can extrapolate how many district delegates we’d expect a candidate to get given a certain statewide vote share. For instance, a candidate who gets 14 percent of the vote statewide, as Biden did in this example, would expect to achieve at least 15 percent in somewhere around 40 percent of districts, thereby receiving delegates there. Even a candidate who got 10 percent of the vote or less statewide might have a couple of strong districts where he or she received delegates, especially in a large, diverse state such as California.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/15-percent-is-not-a-magic-number-for-primary-delegates/

2020 Democratic Primary Debate Schedule

Here is the most up-to-date and complete schedule of the Democratic Primary debates taking place in 2019 and 2020. These debates are between all the major Democratic candidates running for President in 2020. The Democratic debate list below will include all details such as start times, moderators, candidates, live stream links, and links to the full debate videos. This page will be updated frequently as soon as new information becomes available.

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2020-debate-schedule/2020-democratic-debate-schedule/

The schedule for the THIRD Debate is given as: September 12 & 13, 2019

Is that second date firm? Or a contingency if more than 10 candidates qualify? I hope they do not split the debate between two nights if there are 10 candidates or less.

Following a break for August, there will be a debate every month for September thru January.
That's a lot of debates!

"Debates are extremely hard"

Elizabeth Warren Blasts 'Racist' Donald Trump

Elizabeth Warren Blasts 'Racist' Donald Trump and His 'Outrageous, Racist Remarks' After Attack On Elijah Cummings

Democratic 2020 presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren blasted President Donald Trump on Saturday, calling him a "racist" after his attacks on her congressional colleague Democratic Representative Elijah Cummings of Maryland's 7th district.

"Donald Trump, once again, is a racist who makes ever-more outrageous, racist remarks," Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, said in comments to reporters.

"It is insulting, both to the congressman and to the people he represents." Referring to Cummings as on of her "dearest friends" she said he "is a good man through and through, and he fights for what is just in this country." The senator called Trump's tweets "racist," saying the president's attack was "beyond insulting" and "disgusting."


Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) talks with Representative Elijah Cummings (D-MD) on Capitol Hill on February 12, 2013 in Washington, D.C.

https://www.newsweek.com/elizabeth-warren-racist-donald-trump-attack-elijah-cummings-1451458

Feuding among Biden, Booker and Harris is unpredictable force in diversifying Democratic Party

Feuding among Biden, Booker and Harris is unpredictable force in diversifying Democratic Party
By Matt Viser and Chelsea Janes July 25th


As the fight to become the nominee of an increasingly diverse Democratic Party roars toward a second debate, Joe Biden has repeatedly found himself in bitter conflicts with the two most prominent black presidential candidates, Sens. Cory Booker (N.J.) and Kamala D. Harris (Calif.).

Their progressively ­high-profile battling carries risks for all parties involved, with Biden growing far more defiant in his responses, and Booker and Harris making more explicit overtures to black voters as a way to loosen the former vice president’s grip on a bloc that has kept him atop the polls.

The dispute marks a critical chapter in the fight for the soul of a party that was most recently guided by the nation’s first black president — and whose vice president is trying to ride some of that lasting goodwill — but the debate now is becoming more raw, less predictable, and with potentially perilous fault lines for both sides.

It will play out more prominently next week on the debate stage, with Biden standing between Harris and Booker for two hours with the potential of condensing weeks of criticism.
[snip]

The simmering debate — playing out amid the most diverse presidential field in history — contrasts with Barack Obama’s campaigns, which largely downplayed the history-busting nature of his candidacy. A University of Pennsylvania study found that Obama spoke less about race than any other Democrat in the first two years of his presidency since John F. Kennedy in the 1960s.

This year, the presidential contest has brimmed with issues touching on race, including economic plans tailored to black Americans, proposals meant to improve black maternal health and potential reparations for descendants of slaves.

“Racism was like the third rail of politics. It was something Democrats did not touch,” said Cornell Belcher, a Democratic strategist and former Obama pollster. “A decade ago, you didn’t hear any Democrat talking about systemic racism. You didn’t hear any Democrat using terms like ‘institutional racism.’ You do today. Almost every Democrat running for office is talking about the issue of systemic racism.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pre-debate-sparring-between-booker-and-biden-camps-spills-into-another-day/2019/07/25/52932134-aee4-11e9-8e77-03b30bc29f64_story.html?utm_term=.7b4598425e58

Polls are unreliable a year before an election.

When Hillary trounced Trump: Polls are unreliable a year before an election. So why are Dems watching?
by Julia Terruso

Hillary Clinton had a commanding lead over Donald Trump. John McCain and Barack Obama were in a virtual dead heat. President George H.W. Bush was crushing Bill Clinton. So polls said in 2015, 2007, and early 1992 — months and months before the respective presidential elections.

Democrats desperate to beat President Donald Trump this time around have been focused on one word looking toward 2020: electability. And polls should provide a kind of guidepost. But if history is any indication, polling more than a year away from a general election is terribly unreliable.

“They’re virtually useless,” said Sarah Niebler, an assistant professor of public opinion and campaign behavior at Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pa. So far from the presidential election, “the polls you see that match up Trump vs. Biden or Trump vs. Warren or whoever, those have zero explanatory power. They make political scientists crazy when polls are held up to say, this is the person who can win."

Polls are a public opinion snapshot, but they are far from reliably predictive more than a year before ballots are cast. Primary horse-race polls tend to be somewhat more reliable, with some notable exceptions: Jeb Bush and Ben Carson were at different times favorites in the Republican primary campaign of 2016 until they weren’t; Herman Cain led the pack of Republicans vying for the 2012 primary in October 2011 polls.

“You have to understand, most people are not paying attention, and a lot of what we’re picking up is name recognition only,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University in North Jersey and director of the FDU poll.

But winning seems especially important to Democrats this year. Selecting a candidate who can beat Trump, Democratic voters say, is a priority over issues, policies, ideology, or nominating a woman or racial minority, according to recent surveys. “Democrats want an electable candidate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “And then, when you talk to them about what they think that is, it’s basically what the media has been saying about their chances.… That’s a key part of Joe Biden’s support right now. A large number of voters are saying, ‘I keep hearing that he’s electable.’ In many ways, it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. They’re concerned about electability, but we’re not in a position to judge that yet.”

Despite their relative unpredictability, polls are sought out by voters seeking signals on whom to support. Candidates who poll well have historically been shown to get more media attention, and the reverse is true: The more media attention a candidate gets, the more likely the poll numbers are to rise.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/how-reliable-are-polls-general-election-president-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-20190726.html

Harris slams Trump's "go back where they came from" tweets

Warren's Campaign Receives 1 Million Donations

Elizabeth Warren’s Campaign Receives 1 Million Donations, Hitting Milestone



Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has received one million donations to her campaign for president, her team announced on Friday, making her the only Democratic candidate aside from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont to reach that threshold so far in the 2020 cycle.

The milestone further solidifies Ms. Warren’s standing as a top fund-raiser after a slow first three months in the presidential race, during which she raised just $6 million. Despite having sworn off private fund-raisers, Ms. Warren raised $19.2 million in the second quarter, placing her behind only Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. during that period.

In an email the campaign sent to supporters about the accomplishment, Ms. Warren’s campaign manager, Roger Lau, affirmed the wisdom of running what he called a “100 percent people-powered campaign” reliant on grass-roots support.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-fundraising-1-million.html

Warren presses Pelosi on Impeachment

Warren presses Pelosi on impeachment: 'Some things are above politics'
By Jonathan Easle

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Wednesday ramped up pressure on Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump, saying that the House should put aside political concerns and get lawmakers on the record for where they stand.

At an NAACP forum in Detroit, moderator April Ryan noted that the organization had called on the House to impeach Trump a day before, and asked Warren her thoughts.

“What say you about that, particularly because Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, is not for impeachment right now?” Ryan asked.

“I understand there are people who for political reasons say this is not where we want to be, but in my view some things are above politics,” Warren responded.

“One of them is our constitutional responsibilities to do what is right, and the responsibility of the Congress of the United States of America, when the president breaks the law, is to bring impeachment charges against that president," she continued.

"My view is, whether it would pass the Senate or not ... this is a moment in history and every single person in Congress should be called on to vote and then to live with that vote for the rest of their lives.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/454500-warren-presses-pelosi-on-impeachment-some-things-are-above-politics

Biden Says He's Not Relying on Obama as 'Crutch'

Biden Says He's Not Relying on Obama as 'Crutch' in 2020 Bid

Joe Biden rarely lets a public event pass without reminding voters of his work alongside President Barack Obama. But the former vice president insisted on Wednesday that he's not overly relying on that relationship to fuel his 2020 White House bid.

"It's not a crutch," Biden said during a forum in Detroit sponsored by the NAACP. "You can ask President Obama. I don't need any crutch."

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2019-07-24/biden-says-hes-not-relying-on-obama-as-crutch-in-2020-bid


IRONY

a literary technique, originally used in Greek tragedy, by which the full significance of a character's words or actions are clear to the audience or reader although unknown to the character.