bluewater
bluewater's Journal2020 polling shows Warren and Harris on the rise
CNN's John King discusses recent polling data as the Democratic presidential candidates prepare for the second round of debates.
Kamala Harris isn't 'electable'?!? It could be code for not being a white man
Kamala Harris isn’t ‘electable’? It could be code for not being a white man
by Joe Garofoli July 19, 2019
Sen. Kamala Harris’ supporters were thrilled by a poll out this week showing she’s in a virtual dead heat with former Vice President Joe Biden in California, but the Quinnipiac University survey also contained a more troubling message for Harris.
Many California Democrats surveyed thought Biden “had the best chance” of defeating President Trump. They also thought he would be “the best leader.”
The not-so-subtle message in the poll brought up one of the most overused terms in politics: “electability.” It’s a word that Harris’ advocates say is loaded with racial and gender stereotypes.
“This (poll) shows that too many people are believing the fiction of electability,” said Aimee Allison, an Oakland activist and founder of She the People, which focuses on issues affecting women of color. “That because Joe Biden is a white guy, he will be able to stand up to another white guy like Donald Trump.”
[snip]
Some voters think the message of 2016 was “that to beat Donald Trump, you need someone who looks like Donald Trump and talks like Donald Trump — and is a straight shooter that Middle America feels comfortable with,” Lawless said.
But given studies that show that women and people of color win elections just as often as white men, Lawless said, “I don’t know if there’s any evidence that is true.”
Then again, Lawless doesn’t mince words when it comes to the term electability:
“I hate it,” she said. “I hate it because it means different things to different people. It means different things at different times.”
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Kamala-Harris-isn-t-electable-It-could-14106805.php
Biden's projected delegates considerably fewer this month -- CBS News Battleground Tracker
We estimate that Biden currently has 581 delegates in the nominating contests through Super Tuesday, which is considerably fewer than his estimate last month. This is based on our model, which translates voter preferences into district- and state-level estimates, taking into account Democratic party allocation rules. Delegates are given out proportionally to top finishers in each district and statewide.
Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren's estimate has improved to 430 delegates, significantly reducing the gap between her and Biden. She does particularly well with college graduates, politically engaged voters and very liberal Democrats.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/early-contests-by-the-numbers-delegate-race-tightens-in-cbs-news-2020-battleground-tracker/
The all important race for delegates is tightening up!
Interesting to note that besides Warren and Harris gaining projected delegates, that only Beto and Klobuchar are currently projected to have delegates from among the "second tier" of candidates.
Democratic delegate race tightens -- CBS News Battleground Tracker
While Joe Biden continues to lead all Democratic candidates across early states in the presidential nominating process, his previously large advantage has shrunk since June, according to the latest estimates from the CBS News Battleground Tracker poll and delegate model.
While poll percentages in each state often attract attention, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is ultimately a fight for delegates at the party's national convention next July. The party is set to seat 3,768 delegates at the convention in Milwaukee, and a candidate needs to win at least 1,885 delegates to win the nomination.
We estimate that Biden currently has 581 delegates in the nominating contests through Super Tuesday, which is considerably fewer than his estimate last month. This is based on our model, which translates voter preferences into district- and state-level estimates, taking into account Democratic party allocation rules. Delegates are given out proportionally to top finishers in each district and statewide.
Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren's estimate has improved to 430 delegates, significantly reducing the gap between her and Biden. She does particularly well with college graduates, politically engaged voters and very liberal Democrats.
Bernie Sanders is currently in third place with 249 delegates. His estimate has dropped since last month. While he's kept most of his supporters, he hasn't done quite as well at retaining them, particularly college-educated Democrats: one in 10 of his supporters from June now say Warren is their top choice.
Kamala Harris is currently in fourth with 173 delegates. Although her vote share across these states is one point higher than Sanders' share, delegates are what counts, and Sanders is picking them up in more places, including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/early-contests-by-the-numbers-delegate-race-tightens-in-cbs-news-2020-battleground-tracker/
Biden, Warren, Harris and Sanders top 2020 field -- CBS News Battleground Tracker poll
Joe Biden continues to be the first choice among Democratic voters across the 2020 primary states holding contests through Super Tuesday. However, rivals Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are gaining on him and have seen increases in the number of voters at least considering them, suggesting they could have more room to gain going forward.
If we consider a 15% threshold as the minimum support needed to win convention delegates, then across the early states, four candidates would meet that benchmark: Biden, Warren, Harris and Bernie Sanders.
The contest is tighter now among estimated delegates across early states, the true measure of the contest — delegates to the convention. By this measure, Warren is much closer to Biden due to stronger showings especially in very liberal areas.
But there may be a trade-off here, since Biden faces something of a passion gap when compared with other candidates who trail him. A majority of Democrats (56%) feel Warren will fight "a great deal" for people like them, and 54% believe this of Sanders, while a smaller percentage — 38% — describe Biden this way.
Respondents were given a list of candidate descriptions, and when asked to choose which candidate seemed the most "passionate," Warren and Sanders tested highest on this measure (28% each), followed by Harris (23%). Fewer Democratic voters put Biden at the top of the pack on this characteristic (14%).
Warren is seen as the most "specific" of the top-tier candidates by a wide margin (42%) over the others. Related to that specificity, Warren also outpaces the field with voters who see her as most "prepared" in the campaign so far. (Those who see her as most specific also feel she is most prepared.)
Harris, more than the others, is perceived as "strong" (32%), with Warren and Biden trailing her on this characteristic.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-tracker-poll-top-tier-emerges-in-2020-field-biden-warren-harris-and-sanders/
If a politician's first instinct is repeatedly wrong...
How much credit do they deserve for evolving?
Joe Biden on LGBTQ personnel in the Military:
In 1993, as a United States Senator, Biden voted in favor of 10 U.S.C. §654, a section of a broader federally mandated policy that deemed homosexuality incompatible with military life thereby banning gay Americans from serving in the United States armed forces in any capacity without exception.[63] The law was subsequently modified by President Clinton through the issuance of DOD Directive 1304.26 (subsequently nicknamed "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" or DADT) which accommodated "closeted" service to the extent that a servicemember's homosexual sexual orientation was neither discovered nor disclosed.[64] The ban was held unconstitutional in Log Cabin Republicans v. United States for violation of First and Fifth Amendment rights.[65] The Obama Administration, in accordance with President Obama's unfavorable view of the law, pushed a legislative repeal of 10 U.S.C. §654 on December 15, 2010.[66][67]
Joe Biden on Marriage Equality:
In 1996, Biden voted in favor of the Defense of Marriage Act (1 U.S.C. §7) which prohibited the federal government from recognizing any same-sex marriage, barring individuals in such marriages from equal protection under federal law, and allowing states to do the same.[68] In 2013, Section 3 of DOMA was ruled unconstitutional and partially struck down in United States v. Windsor. The Obama Administration did not defend the law and congratulated Windsor.[69] In 2015, DOMA was ruled unconstitutional in totality in Obergefell v. Hodges.[70]
In a May 2012 Meet the Press interview, Vice President Biden publicly reversed his previous position, stating he was "absolutely comfortable with the fact that men marrying men, women marrying women, and heterosexual men and women marrying another are entitled to the same exact rights, all the civil rights, all the civil liberties. And quite frankly, I don't see much of a distinction beyond that."[71]
Joe Biden on Federal abortion funding
From 1976 to June 5, 2019, Biden supported the Hyde Amendment [which prohibited Federal funds being used for abortion].[82][83] On June 6, 2019, Biden reversed his support and now supports repealing the Hyde Amendment.[84] In 1981, he voted to end federal funding for abortion for victims of rape and incest.[79] Biden previously supported the Mexico City policy, but now supports repealing it.[80]
Joe Biden on Internet privacy and file sharing:
In 2006, in its Technology Issues Voter's Guide, CNET.com gave Biden a score of 37.5% on his Senate voting record.[56][57] They described him as "Pro-RIAA" and "Pro-FBI" in his file sharing and privacy stances. Biden sponsored a bill that would prohibit recording songs off of Satellite and Internet radio,[58] and signed a letter urging the Justice Department to prosecute file sharers.[citation needed]
Biden also sponsored two bills, the Comprehensive Counter-Terrorism Act (SB 266) and the Violent Crime Control Act (SB 618), both of which contained language seen as effectively banning encryption.[59] Crypto notes Biden wrote that language into the text of SB 266.[60] Phil Zimmermann, the creator of Pretty Good Privacy, has said it was SB 266 that "led [him] to publish PGP electronically for free that year, shortly before the measure was defeated after vigorous protest by civil libertarians and industry groups."[61] He later stated in a Slashdot article that he was not specifically criticizing Biden, that he would consider the Senator's "whole body of work" when considering whether to vote for him on the Democratic ticket in 2008, and that "considering the disastrous erosion in our privacy and civil liberties under the (Bush) administration, I feel positively nostalgic about Biden's quaint little non-binding resolution of 1991".[62]
Joe Biden on Drug laws:
Biden earned a reputation for being a "drug warrior," leading efforts in the war on drugs.[27] During the 1980s crack epidemic when both Democrats and Republicans were "tough on crime," Biden was the head of the Senate Judiciary Committee that passed numerous punitive measures against drug offenders. In 1986, Biden sponsored and co-wrote the Anti-Drug Abuse Act which caused a large disparity between the sentencing of crack cocaine and powder cocaine users. Black drug users use crack more than cocaine, hence they were incarcerated in larger numbers.[28][29]
[snip]
During the 2007 Democratic primary debate at Howard University, Biden acknowledged the consequences of the drug laws he authored and supported in the 1980s. He said there is a need to close the disparity in punishment between crack and powder cocaine users and a "diversion out of the prison system" and into treatment.[30] In 2010, Biden supported the Fair Sentencing Act which aimed to reduce the disparity.[33]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Joe_Biden
Perhaps a more important question is, what if their first instinct repeatedly needs to be corrected in the future?
Many of Joe Biden's policy evolutions took years and often decades to correct his initial positions.
'He Said Yes!'
‘He Said Yes!’ Despite changing norms, it’s still exceedingly rare for women to propose in a heterosexual couple.
by Ashley Fetters
As public figures have often been known to do in the age of social media, Elizabeth Warren commemorated her wedding anniversary this past weekend by expressing her appreciation for her partner on Twitter. Warren shared a story that also appears in her 2014 memoir A Fighting Chance, about the day she realized she’d be with Bruce Mann, now her husband of 39 years, for the rest of their lives. “One day at the grocery store soon after we first met, I saw Bruce gazing at the strawberry display. I said, ‘We can get some if you want!’ He smiled, picked up a carton, and told me he was thinking about his family. ‘We didn’t eat things like fresh strawberries,’ he explained,” Warren’s tweet read. “It made me think about my family, too, how my mother would work her grocery list to squeeze out every last nickel. In that moment, I knew Bruce and I would be bound to each other forever.”
Pretty standard fare for a politician’s earnest anniversary tweet, all told, except for the next line: “When I proposed to him, he said yes.”
Warren has gone further into detail on her proposal to Mann elsewhere on her social media pages; in the summer of 2016, she celebrated their 36th wedding anniversary by sharing the whole story on Facebook. “I proposed to Bruce in a classroom. It was the first time I’d seen him teach, and I was already in love with him, but watching him teach let me see one more thing about him — and that was it,” she wrote. “When class was over and the students had cleared out, he came up to me and asked, somewhat hesitantly, ‘Uh, what did you think?’” Warren responded by asking Mann to marry her.
Warren, who had two children with her first husband before they divorced, got remarried to Mann in 1980. As a remarried divorcee and a candidate for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, Warren finds herself in a field of presidential hopefuls whose family lives reflect the diversity of Americans’. Warren and Mann’s married life, however, kicked off in a way that was both unusual at the time and unusual now, in that Warren proposed to Mann and not the other way around. The rarity of women proposing to men is something of a curious anomaly to people who have studied marriage and its evolution: While marriage itself has grown to be a more gender-flexible and egalitarian institution, the proposal ritual has remained stubbornly, stagnantly male-driven. This may be, counterintuitively, partly a result of women’s economic and educational empowerment and marriage’s subsequent trend toward equal partnership.
[snip]
Still, a woman proposing to a man remains an incredibly rare occurrence, as it was when Warren proposed to Mann. In 1980, when the pair married, marriage rituals had certainly been undergoing some changes, most of which were aimed at making married partnerships more egalitarian. “In the 1970s, a slightly larger percentage of women kept their own [last] names than in the 1990s, probably because the discovery of just how sexist the marriage laws and customs of the day were had only recently come home to them,” Stephanie Coontz, the director of research and public education for the Council on Contemporary Families and the author of Marriage, a History: How Love Conquered Marriage, told me in an email. (The 1970s had also seen the rise of measures like “marriage contracts,” pre-matrimonial agreements popularized by feminists that laid out the terms and conditions of a marriage in an attempt to ensure better treatment for wives than wives had historically enjoyed.) Despite all those changes, proposals remained stubbornly male territory. Warren and Mann, Coontz wrote, are “a couple who’d be ahead of their time today and were already ahead of their time (AND our time) then.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/07/women-proposing-to-men/594214/
July 31st Debate: Podium postions and Ages.
Relative podium position and age of each candidate for the July 31st Democratic Primary Debate__Candidate____Age____
Michael Bennet... 54
Kirsten Gillibrand 52
Julián Castro...... 44
Cory Booker...….. 50
Joe Biden……... 76 Current Frontrunner at center stage
Kamala Harris.... 54
Andrew Yang..... 44
Tulsi Gabbard.... 38
Jay Inslee...……. 68
Bill de Blasio..... 58
Looking at this lineup, it is incumbent on Joe Biden's to appear vigorous and ready for the challenges of serving as President since he will be directly compared to considerably younger candidates.
A specific individual's age and fitness are relevant factors in judging any candidate.
Warren: A Foreign Policy for All
From endless wars that strain military families to trade policies that crush our middle class, Washington’s foreign policy today serves the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of everyone else.
For too long, our economic policies have left workers with the short end of the stick. We need to strengthen labor standards – and then fight to enforce them. That’s why Elizabeth will oppose Trump’s new “NAFTA 2.0” unless he produces a better deal for America’s working families. It’s time to stop prioritizing corporate profits over American paychecks.
A strong military should act as a deterrent so that most of the time, we won’t have to use it. We must continue to be vigilant about the threat of terrorism, but it’s time to bring our troops home – and make sure they get support and benefits they’ve earned.
We should also leverage all the tools of our national power, not just our military might. That means cutting our bloated defense budget and ending the stranglehold of defense contractors on our military policy. It means reinvesting in diplomacy and standing with our allies to advance our shared interests. It means new solutions to new global challenges, from cybersecurity to the existential threat posed by climate change.
Our strength abroad is generated here at home. Policies that undermine working families in this country also erode our strength in the world. It’s time for a foreign policy that works for all Americans, not just wealthy elites.
https://elizabethwarren.com/#a-foreign-policy-for-all
Harris: 'Send Her Back' Chant Was Created By Trump's Tweets, "Not By The Crowd"
Kamala Harris: 'Send Her Back' Chant Was Created By Trump's Tweets, "Not By The Crowd"
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris said it is obvious and not debatable that the crowd chanting "send her back" about Rep. Ilham Omar (D-MN) at President Trump's MAGA rally last night was created by Trump's tweets and not the audience.
"The chant was created, not by the crowd, but by the president’s tweets. And that’s obvious... it’s really not a debatable point and I think," Harris said in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on Thursday.
JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Joining me now on the phone is Democratic presidential candidate, Senator Kamala Harris of California. Senator, thanks so much for fitting us in between your busy campaigning. President Trump today is now claiming that he tried to stop those chants and even though he didn’t try to stop those chants, he’s also saying that he disagreed with them. What do you make of it all?
SEN. KAMALA HARRIS (D-CA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I do think they’re empty words, Jake. You know, the chant was created, not by the crowd, but by the president’s tweets. And that’s obvious that it’s -- you know, it’s really not a debatable point and I think it’s just (INAUDIBLE) -- clearly not a sign of real leadership. I think you have mentioned it; your guests have mentioned it. Contrast it with a real American leader like John McCain, who during the campaign in 2008 -- he stood up, he spoke up. He was, you know, he understood, as an American hero, that the voice of someone who wants to be, much less is the President of The United States, must be a voice that is about elevating discourse that is about speaking to our better selves. And this president just keeps finding new lows. And you know, I would like to say it’s shocking, but at some point -- it’s sadly predictable. But it keeps getting worse.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/07/19/kamala_harris_send_her_back_chant_was_created_by_trumps_tweets_not_by_the_crowd.html
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