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Shermann

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Member since: Sat Feb 22, 2020, 12:55 PM
Number of posts: 3,303

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2020 Republican National Convention Caravan

The 2020 Republican National Convention Caravan was originally going to camp at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. Charlotte was the only city in the country showing much interest in hosting the caravan. This was no surprise considering the caravan's odd consortium of pseudo-scientists, cultists, snake-oil salesmen, and fear-mongers led by the carnival-barking leader himself Donald Trump.

In May, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper grew skittish about the size of the caravan and its oddly influential leader and wanted to see it reduced in size. Eventually, Cooper turned the caravan away entirely in June due to fears from North Carolina residents.

The caravan travelled to Atlanta, Dallas, Jacksonville, Nashville, New Orleans, Orlando, Phoenix, and Savannah, but were turned away at every city's gates.

The caravan finally headed south to Jacksonville, Florida after a seemingly positive discussion with the Governor. However, by July Floridians had adopted a similar skeptical mindset as the Charlotteans regarding the wandering caravan. Trying to save face, caravan leader Trump claimed that the caravan would be disbanded based strictly on his own decision.

Magical thinking about school openings in US

As I understand it, the justification that schools can be opened safely this fall is based on the following two assertions:

1) The risk to children getting severely ill from CV-19 is low
2) There is no evidence children can cause significant spread of CV-19

I accept assertion 1 as the science and data clearly back this up. However, assertion 2 appears to be based on a logical fallacy. It has not been demonstrated that unaffected children can be largely immune to CV-19 as opposed to being merely asymptomatic. While the inverse has not be demonstrated either, I believe the default position should be that children can cause significant spread. This belief is compatible with having an abundance of caution related to this health crisis.

If you accept my definition of this default position, you have no choice to reject assertion 2 as it represents a shifting of the burden of proof. If you accept that assertion 2 is not sound, you must also reject the justification that schools can be opened safely.

I don't know of any children who live alone and can socially distance. Schools are at risk of creating a "mixer" environment where children spread it to each other and then to their parents and grandparents, fueling the pandemic further.

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