kgrande63
kgrande63's JournalHow California works
Source: Sec of state
I lived in Central California for years and the same thing happened every election. Republicans started out ahead and then the democrat would catch up as mail in ballots were counted. If a Rep had a sufficient lead they could withstand the onslaught. Remember in 2020 Biden lead stretched out as the mail in ballots came in.
A specific congressional district, (I.E. Katie Porter ) saw that exact thing happen. The Republican held the lead and the the mail in ballots came in in high percentages favoring the Dem.
There are 3 house races there which could turn Ca 13,Ca 22 and Ca 41. The GOP leads in all three at this moment but there are 10's of thousands of mail in ballot left. If they trend moderately democratic those will flip.
If that pattern holds statewide even Ca 3 could come into play. Honestly, my guess is that a there was going to be a fairly low turnout for Ca but when Speaker Pelosi's husband was attacked and the right wing went did its crazy thing, several thousands dems decided to vote. I dont know how they count the votes but it could be the the latest arriving votes trend most favorable to dems.
Time will tell.
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Pa could put Biden over the top on purpose
Source: data
Even if things tonight go well in Georgia for Biden there are still about 12,000 military and overseas ballots to be counted tomorrow no network will call Georgia even if Biden is leading tonight. Nevada is in a holding pattern but I am not to worried about it. Arizona may cause a problem but who knows.
However, they are counting ballots through the night in Philly and I think people there would like to see Biden be put over the top by Pennsylvania. As long as they keep updating it might be worth watching.
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Bad Polling or Low Turnout?
Source: many experts
If you had said turnout would only be at most 145,000,000 voters that would suggest using lower turnout models which would be very favorable to Trump. All that I heard for weeks was that turnout would be 150 to 160 million and if that had happened Biden might get 400+ electoral votes. It didn't happen that way.
I think if you went to 538, the Economist model, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato and Sam Wang and told them 145,000,000 would be cast ....maybe lower.... all the polling would be much closer.
Then again during a Pandemic it might be hard to model turnout.
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Florida and independents
Source: polls
The one thing everyone should know about Florida. In 2012 Obama won and was almost the exact margin he won independents by. In 2016 Trump won by almost the exact amount he won independents by.
I would expect that before votes are officially counted that the Republicans may have an edge in votes totals over Democrats. There has been a dramatic increase in No Party Affiliation and the 4 A+ rated polls done before election days had Trump losing Independents from between 17 to 20 points. If that is true, then the GOP could be ahead of pure Democrats votes by almost 200,000 votes and the Independents could carry Biden.
It could be very close.
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Booker Mcgrath on politico
Source: politico
There are live results being poster in the Kentucky Senate primary on Politico. It is extremely close with under 10% left to count
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Member since: Wed May 20, 2020, 11:42 AMNumber of posts: 27
