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Member since: Wed Sep 30, 2020, 04:57 PM
Number of posts: 1,662

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If GA delivers The Rev

I promised a close GA Alumni friend Id be Go Dawgs the rest of the year. You absolutely don't know how much that pains me, especially with Big 10, 20, however fucking many there are now in real contention this year. Its gonna hurt BAD!!! but tis for the greater good.

This will get lost in the GD thread. I just have a hard time and need to rant over this Ian bullshit

Please don't get me wrong. I have compassion for people that have been traumatized by something like this. I feel terribly for any loss of peoples loved ones. I am definitely not an unfeeling human being, I really do care. That's why I am going to say something, bash me if you want.

I have a long family history in FL, my indigenous family and had been going there for many years when I was younger. Not as a tourist, but to see family.
The first time I permanently moved there I was invited by a distant cousin and moved to Indian Rocks Beach in 84. Anyone who had been to that little town before the mid 90's knows it was the last bastion of old 50's style white man Florida left on the west coast besides maybe Cedar Key. Gulf Blvd was damn near a dirt road. They didn't allow condos until the late 90's. I lived in a 3 room bungalow with my cousin with the beach and the longest pier in FL as my front porch. I took nothing for granted. I worked on a long line boat with my cousin. I got to know my biggest neighbor, the ocean, intimately for the first time. You couldn't get me out of it, I loved it, still do. But for all its beauty I listened, learned and respected when those with experience spoke of the dark side. Sure I had read about storms, saw TV footage, but when you hear about them first hand, when you learn about and respect a new environment you live in you best listen.

In 85 I got my first real lesson with Elena, a Cat 5 storm that never moved. It never got closer than 60 or 70 miles from us. For nearly 4 days it just sent wave after wave of surge at us, upwards of 9 feet. It was scary as hell. We were going to get off the island but the surge came in so quick we were stuck. We were also helping others that were caught by the surprise of the surge. I watched the longest pier in FL die. You must remember they couldn't predict back then the way they can now. But because I listened, learned and suddenly truly respected about where I lived fear turned to understanding.

I've lived many places in the almost 40 years after that, over half within eyesight of that beautiful neighbor with a temper.. And that lesson has helped me I think more than any other in my life. Where ever you go, move, live or anything you do in your life you have a personal responsibility to listen, learn and respect your new environment. If you cant, are not willing or are just to arrogant, stay where you're at. The bad part...

DON'T MOVE TO FLORIDA unless you're willing to go back to school and learn about where you're living. I am very very serious about that. The environment of Florida owes you nothing, and it's not just storms. While it is beautiful, especially in its natural state, while it has some kind of "Disney" other worldliness that a cornfield or an urban row of same 'ole same 'ole homes needing mowed, raked and shoveled of snow year after year, a seasonal monotony of a working lifetime that would naturally be envious of Florida then DEFINITELY DO NOT MOVE to the coast unless you are seriously going to change your life, unless you are going to educate yourself and LEARN and RESPECT where you're about live.

You're not only endangering yourself you are selfishly endangering others who have to come and get you when you cry. I get so sick of hearing either on TV, or in person of storms I've been in, someone from Michigan or New Jersey or Indiana or just any damn place up north who damn near gets killed or gets other people killed or cries because their house 6 feet above sea level is gone because they think that the ocean around a spit of land that has, is, and will be slammed by these storms more than just about anyplace in the world is just a big jet ski party.

Climate change or not IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN DOWN THERE! Fucking deal with it or go back where you came from. Sorry but I've heard it over and over and over and over. Go down for a month in May get you some Micky Mouse ears and then go home if you're not willing to understand the risk your taking for you, your family and personally, having too many people down there has permanently fucked up one of the most beautiful places in the world.

Commence with the bashing I don't care... I'm right.

Some perspective on Ian and how close, once again, a disaster not seen since the Galveston storm

was averted. The area from Punta Gorda down to Naples that took the brunt of the storm surge from this storm is fairly densely populated. There are barrier islands that offer some protection from a storm like Ian.

There are 5 times as many people in Pinellas county FL as the area that took the brunt of Ian. The land elevation of Pinellas county is almost the same as the areas hit yesterday. It has barrier islands like they do down there. When you start seeing pictures of the devastation that will surely start coming out later today try and think if the original forecast would've transpired.

I lived on Indian Rocks Beach for 14 years. I was there when Elena just set out in the gulf and beat the shit out us for 3 days, never made landfall anywhere close. We had 9 feet of water. The storm of the Century caused the worst flooding in Pinellas county in nearly 80 years.

It's going to happen. 1 million people, a third live in mobile homes, and 3 ways out. It's going to happen.

Not quite sure what the NHC is thinking

We've been debating on weatherboard. Ian certainly looks like it could be back over water in about 6 hours, not later Thursday afternoon. It's already east of Orlando. If it doesn't start to make a northerly turn soon all bets are off once it gets back out into the Atlantic. There's been a model shift east on some of the early guidance.

Huge burst of convection in the eye for a storm over land. Amazing


Hurricane hunters, ride'em cowboy!


But wait theres more lol...


Ian is not weakening and it's crawling

Radar images from Tampa showing the eye taking on a hexagonal shape (to hard to explain why) but we see this with very powerful storms like Michael and Harvey along with multiple meso vortices in the eye. All signs of the eyewall winds are making it to the surface.

Latest VDM. Bolded shows this thing is still rocking, thats quite a temp spread...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 17:17:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.51N 82.41W
B. Center Fix Location: 35 statute miles (57 km) to the WSW (256) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,581m (8,468ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 938mb (27.70 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 113kts (130.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (352) of center fix at 17:12:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 102 at 135kts (From the ESE at 155.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NNW (347) of center fix at 17:11:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 121kts (139.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (152) of center fix at 17:22:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 226 at 136kts (From the SW at 156.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSE (152) of center fix at 17:23:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9C (48F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)

R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12C (54F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Reminder Hurricane warnings and storm surge warnings now for the NE coast of Fl now

and Hurricane watches and storm surge warnings now in effect from SE GA up through Charleston county SC.

Tampa Bay has dropped 5 feet since this morning. Its gonna get backhanded hard

as the back of this thing passes.The high tide will be coming in all along the SW Fl coast from now through about 6 pm unfortunately. Also the St. Johns river is already backing up and beginning to enter flood stage. This thing is gonna be a water killer. They are expecting record river flooding all across central to NE Fl.

Can't say enough about the men and women of the Hurricane Hunters

Both from NOAA and the Air National Guard. Reorts are they've had a rough 24 hours dealing some very severe turbulence trying to get a handle on this thing. Hat's off and Thank you!

New very important info and changes in the 11am update!
Stay smart and stay safe down there....


Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

]Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence.
That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this

Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next
few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the
track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line
with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula
(due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast
forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force
winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance
of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida.
significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the
Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a
trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United
States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with
more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of
coastal South Carolina.
The new intensity forecast is raised from
the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern
coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force
winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian.
Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed
to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across
central Florida.

4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida
coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to
portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued for that area.


INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Blake
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