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WarGamer

WarGamer's Journal
WarGamer's Journal
April 18, 2024

Biden Seeks To Triple Tariffs On Chinese Steel And Aluminum

Is that "inflation neutral"?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-triple-steel-tariffs_n_661f446be4b015646f79b610

“The president understands we must invest in American manufacturing, but we also have to protect those investments and those workers from unfair exports associated with China’s industrial overcapacity,” Lael Brainerd, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said on a call with reporters on Tuesday night.

Even as he seeks to eat into Trump’s support in industrial regions, the very authority that Biden is tapping to potentially expand tariffs on Chinese imports speaks to the extent to which he has sought to continue and expand upon the more hawkish trade policies of his predecessor, Trump.

Biden is calling on the office of the U.S. Trade Representative to examine whether its authority under Section 301, which permits the U.S. to impose trade sanctions on trading partners that produce an “unreasonable” burden on U.S. commerce, permits it to triple the tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. Trump had invoked Section 301 to levy tariffs on Chinese imports to the delight of domestic industries and labor unions who represent workers in those industries.
April 17, 2024

Apparently Wall Street likes "Canceled TV shows"... DJT up 15%

Yesterday they announced the rollout of their new TV streaming services on mobile app first, and TV next... like Hulu or Freevee, etc...

Apparently a platform dedicated to content likely to be "cancelled" by other platforms.

Some possible programs:

The News Hour with Steve Bannon

The Late Night Show with Stephen Miller

Cooking with Nazis

The Unattractive Undesirable Bachelor

The Five, with Kid Rock, Ted Nugent, Roseanne Barr, Kevin Sorbo and Scott Baio.

Who wants to be a Defendant?



April 16, 2024

An absolutely fantastic summary of the NYC "Hush Money Trial" of Donald Trump

I've been looking for something like this for days... this is good. All the legal nuts and bolts.

https://news.syr.edu/blog/2024/04/16/pitch-legal-analysis-of-hush-money-trial-facing-former-president-donald-trump/

There are several layers that I believe District Attorney Bragg must show to convict Trump of committing a felony under Penal Law § 175.10.

First, Bragg must show that Trump made the false business records with intent to commit “fraud,” otherwise Trump would not be guilty of a crime at all, because falsifying business records for non-fraudulent purposes is not a crime under the statute.

Second, the District Attorney must show that the reason for Trump’s false entries was to commit or cover up a separate crime, presumably separate from the fraud. If the separate crime is the election law violation, Trump would have had to know that the payment was an election law violation, and to have falsified the records to cover it up that crime. It seems to me that the election law violation would be stronger, not weaker, by making it look like Cohen was the one making the payments for Trump. Disguising the payments through Cohen made it look more like an election law violation by a supporter, not less. Or was Trump trying to disguise the payments to prevent his family or the public from knowing about the embarrassing allegations, rather than covering up an independent crime?

I believe the District Attorney must show (1) that the payments were disguised as attorney fees to commit a fraud on someone, (2) that the underlying payments constituted an independent crime, (3) that Trump knew that the underlying payments constituted a crime, and (4) that the reason he covered up the payments was to disguise that crime. Those are going to be hard things to prove.


There. Now you know more than the content creators on the MSM attempting to tell you about the case.
April 14, 2024

Were you in favor of Trump hitting/killing Iranian General Soleimani in Iraq?

Pretty similar to the Nuttyahoo/Israeli strike in Syria...

I thought both strikes were stupid on the political stage.

April 9, 2024

Just wanted to fill in some detail about the trading of DJT.

Seems to be a LOT of confusion about the stock and it's trading so... here I am.

To start, DJT is a tiny company.

It's split into 137 million tiny slices called SHARES.

Donald Trump owns 79 million shares... a few other co-founders hold a few million shares.

So, about 2/3 of the shares are held by insiders who can NOT sell for 6 months due to a lock up period.

Who else owns DJT?

Not institutions. Won't find Vanguard or CALPRS holding any of it.

Total institutional ownership is only 2.3 million shares.

Some of those institutions, call them hedge funds or small investment firms... hold them for the income earned by lending out the shares to folks who want to SHORT the stock.

So there's 4-6m in volume each day. Who's buying and selling?

It's mostly retail investors and small firms trading short term.

How is it being traded? And how does that affect the price action we've seen recently?

You see, if you buy 1000 shares at 35 dollars and it hits 45 dollars the next day, you've made $10k

Recently we saw it run up to nearly 80/share but that was a large enough number that people started to sell their positions to take the money. DJT started the year around 17/share and popped into the 30's when the merger vote date was announced.

Right now it's back to the 30's which seems to be an area of support. So now you will see firms buying in at 30 something and looking to sell when it rises by a few dollars... that's the volatility you see in meme stocks.

Speaking of meme stocks.

DJT has little to no value. Neither did Gamestop but Hedge Funds lost BILLIONS of dollars shorting it.

The retail investors, or as the pros call them "dumb money and ret&rds" are trading the stock "cause they like it" or they're just short term TRADERS making a buck.

The "shorts" you keep hearing about?

DJT actually only has around 11% short last I saw... not that much.

And since the VAST majority of shares are insider owned on lockup and most of the remaining shares are owned by TRADERS just looking for a buck...

There can't be an effective and powerful force to short the stock down.

Why did it go from 79 to 30?

Profit taking.

People will load back up when they see a support level.

I expect this see-saw to continue until the election. It will drop down to support levels and rise again until it's high enough for traders to take profit.

At one point or another we might see foreign buyers take positions... but I think we'll see those around dates like the GOP convention and formal nomination, etc...

To sum it all up. DJT is NOT META. No one is buying DJT as an investment. It's a TRADING commodity only at this point and the daily price action tells the story of who is buying and selling.

April 8, 2024

Excellent poll out today... II/Tipp, Biden +3 head to head, TIED in 5-way...

Slow and steady improvement for Biden over the last few weeks...

National polling isn't very instructive... but it's good for observing trends.

https://issuesinsights.com/2024/04/08/independents-third-party-candidates-loom-as-election-deciders-in-2024-ii-tipp-poll/

If no other candidates appear on the ballot, the results show Biden 43%, Trump 40%. With the margin of error, it’s basically a dead heat. Significantly, however, 9% responded “other,” while 9% answered “not sure,” for 18% of the total vote.

But the fact is, Trump and Biden are not opposing against one another in a vacuum. I&I/TIPP asks a second question about voters’ presidential preferences, this one adding in the three major third-party and independent challengers who are also running: Independent author, activist and lawyer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., independent former Harvard University professor Cornell R. West, and Green Party standard-bearer Jill Stein.

When those others are added, the numbers change, Biden takes a hit. With the non-Democratic, non-GOP challengers running, Biden and Trump are dead even at 38% each, with Kennedy taking 11%, West 2%, and Stein 1%. “Other” in this case falls to just 2%, while “not sure” remains at 9%.
April 5, 2024

Thinking about the PowerBall tomorrow and how it relates to Taxation and Wealth.

So in California the jackpot after taxes is just under $400m

We all ask ourselves "what would you do with it?"

You see... 400m is fairly difficult to spend.

Can't really buy a Bezos size yacht or you'd be broke in 10-20 years.

So most people would peel off like $300m and buy Federal Gov't Bonds.

You see... a 10- year Bond returns around 4.5% annually.

Or around $14 million a year. Risk-free.

But think about it.

You've taken money out of the circulating money supply... money that was in someones pocket at the 7-11

And you've buried it. Hoarded it.

Some will say... "That money isn't hoarded, it's invested in the USA"

Well... who pays my $14m a year? The US Gov't you say? Who's that?

The married couple paying 20% of their income in Federal Income Tax?

Single dude paying 15%?

Isn't the hoarding of wealth really a transfer of wealth TO the rich?

Through Gov't debt?

The US gov't is 35 trillion in the hole...

16% of ALL Federal spending, 450 billion a year... goes towards servicing US Gov't debt...

Meaning... paying interest to rich people hoarding wealth.

#WealthTaxNow




PS I'll still accept the Grand Prize.

April 4, 2024

Fed signals no rate cuts this year... DOW down 500+

Stock market today: Stocks slide after Fedspeak as oil surges, March jobs report on deck

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-stocks-slide-after-fedspeak-as-oil-surges-march-jobs-report-on-deck-200259217.html



Stocks slumped on Thursday as oil hit its highest price in six months and a key Federal Reserve official floated a warning that interest rate cuts might not come in 2024.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell almost 1.4%, or 550 points while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 1.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 1.4%. This marked the S&P 500's worst single-day drop since Feb. 13.

All three major averages reversed strong midday gains after Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year if inflation progress stalls. The positive market action also paused amid a spike in oil prices.


Not cutting rates would be devastating in an election year... inflation is stuck and home affordability is an issue.

Couple that with rising oil prices and continuing wars...
April 4, 2024

Great News... No Labels not fielding a 3rd Party challenger in 2024.

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/04/no-labels-2024-presidential-campaign-cancelled

The centrist political group No Labels is dropping plans to put forward a third-party ticket in November, Axios confirmed Thursday.

Why it matters: It's a huge shake-up to the 2024 presidential race. Democrats were concerned that the group's plans to run a "unity ticket" could siphon votes from President Biden's re-election bid.
April 4, 2024

Lots of people talking or asking about "Shorting" DJT/Truth Social

It's not that easy.

Some might think... short now and pile the cash all the way down.

Doesn't work that way.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240403272/why-shorting-trumps-djt-stock-could-cost-you-500

Keep in mind that to short a stock - the act of selling a stock without owning it on the expectation it can be bought back later at a lower price - that stock first has to be borrowed from someone who owns it and is willing and able to lend it. The fewer shares there are available to borrow, the higher the cost to borrow them.

"There is very little stock available to borrow to support new short selling - less than 50,000 shares - and with demand to short this stock extremely high, we are seeing stock-borrow rates at 500% to 600% fee levels," Dusaniwsky told MarketWatch on Tuesday.

Based on that data, to short 100 DJT shares at their current price, it would cost between $24,895 to $29,874 a year. That means the stock would have to fall about 1.4% a day just to cover the cost to short it. And if the short was held for a year, the bet would still lose about $20,000 to $25,000 even if the stock fell to $1. Basically, you can be very right and still lose a lot of money.

Given the cost and the fact that there are "no sizable stock borrows available to support new short sales," Dusaniwsky said he believes "there can be no new selling pressure brought on by short sellers."Keep in mind that to short a stock - the act of selling a stock without owning it on the expectation it can be bought back later at a lower price - that stock first has to be borrowed from someone who owns it and is willing and able to lend it. The fewer shares there are available to borrow, the higher the cost to borrow them.



The risks are immense. And the return is minimal. Only 50k shares available for borrowing... that's just $2.4m in shares. The fees are sky high.

And...

A short squeeze is more likely in the short term.

You see... it's a very low volume stock. Around 3-4m shares per day. Shorts can be burnt to the ground easily... And institutional investor, like the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund can send this to 100/share with just a few million dollars a day in purchases for a week or so.

And when short sellers get burnt... it's painful. Shorts lost BILLIONS in the GME fiasco in 21.

Fortunately that can't happen here because there are only 50k shares available to short.

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Name: J
Gender: Male
Hometown: SoCal
Home country: USA
Current location: Socal
Member since: Mon Feb 1, 2021, 09:27 PM
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