March 22, 2024

Fresh hot polls... mixed news from MI and WI.

Wed 3/20 Emerson/Hill...

In Michigan, Slotkin +2 over Rogers.

In Wisconsin, Baldwin over Hovde by +3

Crucial to hold the Senate.

I won't include the Biden v Trump polling... go read it if you wish.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/wisconsin-2024-trump-46-biden-43/

March 20, 2024

Coincidence? Trump's net worth increases by $480M today...

Coincidence is the word we use when we can't see the levers and pulleys

--Emma Bull



As I posted yesterday, it appears the Trump SPAC merging with Trump Media and Technology Group will act as a combination slush fund/Super PAC/dark money source for Trump.

DWAC is way up today, over $6 per share and Trumps stake is 79 million shares.

Too politically "hot" to loan Trump money? Then buy the stock. Can't wire money out of Moscow to DJT?

Then have someone buy stock.

The merger vote is set for Friday, if it passes... Trump has instantly made more money than after decades of slum lording, licensing and the occasional steak, wine bottle or university class.

Keep your eye on the stock... it's where the dark money is.

THAT will be the collateral that funds the Bond before Monday.

He can't SELL the stock for 6 months but it can be collateral.

March 19, 2024

My THEORY re: Trump and the bond payment...

Many of you already know this but I'll summarize.

Now I'm going to really over-simplify this part.

In the stock market there are these groups of investors who form a company (A SPAC, special purpose acquisition company) that has the sole purpose of finding a company to merge with.

So a SPAC named DWAC made a deal with Trump to take his new company "Trump Media and Technology Group" public.

Part of the deal awarded Trump 79 million shares in the post merger company.

After several delays, the final vote for merger is this Friday, 3/22

When the merger is complete, Trump's stake in the company, 79 million shares is worth around $2-3B

Earlier this year when DWAC was 50/share it was closer to $4B

SO my theory is... if/when the merger is complete, on Friday... Trump has a deal worked out with an insurance company to hold his stake or a portion of it as collateral for the Bond.

There is a 6 month waiting period before Trump or the insurance company can sell it however.

But 6 months is still before the election...

And knowing the market like I do... I think retail traders, AKA Trump fans will pump up the price of the stock after the merger and after the convention, etc...

The insurance company might demand an enormous amount of the stake... maybe $2B worth to cover the 500M bond due to the volatility of the company.

Also remember... after the merger, it's a perfect vehicle for foreign gov't to support Trump. FOr example the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund could buy $500m worth of shares to pump up the stock price.

That's my theory.

Deeper reading:

https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/02/37174641/legally-troubled-donald-trump-may-earn-billions-as-his-social-media-firm-gets-sec-nod-for-dwac-m

March 15, 2024

Latest Poll... Mixed news out of OHIO, Biden down but Brown UP, maybe.

The handpicked Trumpist running vs Sherrod Brown isn't polling that well. Brown +4

The mainstream GOP'er, Matt Dolan is leading Brown +2 but faces a tight Primary battle vs the Trumpist.

So hope for Bernie Moreno to beat Dolan.

Trump up by 10% in a 5-way race.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Press+Releases/Matt+Dolan+Holds+Narrow+Lead+Over+Bernie+Moreno+in+Ohio+Senate+Republican+Primary%3B+Frank+LaRose+in+Third+Place%3B+General+Election+Matchups+with+Sherrod+Brown+Competitive%3B+Trump+Leads+Biden+by+10+Points/22936608.html

March 15, 2024

Local housing prices... illustrating absurdity.

I dropped my wife off at a friends house today. She's an elderly lady, my wife visits now and then...

She lives in a little condo in my city, a 2+2 built in 1975

As I was waiting in the car I googled a home for sale in the community.

875,000 plus 500/mo HOA...

Admittedly, my city (Westlake Vlg, CA) is on the upper middle class side... I bought my house in the 00's for around 500k and paid it off in less than 10 years while I was working like crazy.

But it just tells me... people around here... professionals and retired folks with investments are making ENORMOUS amounts of money.

It highlights the disconnect between the haves and have nots and the economy of the last ten years has mostly benefited the well off.

Here it is:

March 12, 2024

FT: EU nears deal on 5bn military aid package for Ukraine

Outstanding. The EU investing in the safety and security of their own backyard.

I think this deal allows the EU to purchase US gear to send to Ukraine as long as it's the only source. For example, HIMARS ammo... if no one has any except the US, they can purchase it.

https://www.ft.com/content/e4156a28-5b50-41f9-b8d5-9e5a3d770c39#post-5c731dd6-ba63-4982-9d44-8ed528b8a68a

EU countries are set to agree on a new €5bn top-up to a fund used to finance military shipments to Ukraine, after months of wrangling over the procurement rules, according to four officials briefed on the discussions.

The EU deal, which needs formal approval at a meeting of member states on Wednesday, unlocks fresh cash for the reimbursement of supplies to Kyiv by EU countries. It will prioritise weapons manufactured inside the bloc but not exclude those from third countries if they are the only option, the officials said.

The fund, known as the European Peace Facility, has been a critical part of European military supplies to Ukraine since February 2022, but has been depleted.

March 12, 2024

SLATE: Trump and Biden Should Both Be Terrified of the Third-Party Vote

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/03/rfk-jr-third-party-cornel-west-jill-stein.html

I don't get the DOOM-CASTING from reliably LEFT Democratic sources.

Other than Perot, it has been at least a century since a third-party candidate had a realistic chance at becoming president, and that won’t change this year. But Kennedy’s outsider campaign has to worry the Biden camp.

For one thing, Kennedy is polling better than any third-party candidate in a generation, sitting at 15 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of a three-way race as of March 11. Those numbers are almost certainly soft, but there’s no getting around the enduring (and I would argue unfathomable) appeal of the Kennedy brand and the fact that dissatisfaction with the two major-party nominees is so broad that it seems as if you can throw any famous last name out there and hit double digits. The fact that Kennedy SuperPAC American Values 2024 spent $7 million on an ad during the Super Bowl suggests that the campaign intends to go all the way to November.

It is no longer particularly far-fetched to think that Donald Trump’s restoration is possible—perhaps even more likely than not, given President Joe Biden’s dreadful polling numbers as of Monday. Those polls, already a fairly accurate snapshot of what is likely to happen in November, get more predictive by the day from here on out. But thus far, most analysis of the election has focused almost exclusively on the two widely disliked elderly men who are all but assured of claiming the Democratic and Republican nominations, especially after their romps through the Super Tuesday contests. But a number of other candidates and parties are in the process of getting on November’s ballot, and for the first time in almost 20 years, one of them is consistently polling in double digits. That’s to say nothing of the independent organization No Labels, which has yet to identify a standard-bearer after getting spurned by Sen. Joe Manchin and Larry Hogan, a former Republican governor of Maryland; No Labels announced on Friday that it would press forward with its presidential bid. The combination of historic unpopularity for the major-party nominees, the presence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling well enough to get into the televised debates, and an unusually large slate of other third-party candidates could make this the wildest, most unpredictable presidential election in living memory.

March 10, 2024

Oscars: Kimmel makes stupid joke about the Holocaust and Germany

Pretty un-funny tonight.

Paraphrasing:

And as I look out over the audience I see actress Sandra Hüller who is the star of Zone of Interest playing the wife of Rudolf Höss, the Commandant of Auschwitz building a family next to the camp.

In Germany, it's known as a rom-com.


If I mis-heard it, lmk...

March 10, 2024

Reuters: Pope says Ukraine should have 'courage of the white flag' of negotiations

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pope-says-ukraine-courage-white-161856540.html

ROME (Reuters) -Pope Francis has said in an interview that Ukraine should have what he called the courage of the "white flag" and negotiate an end to the war with Russia that followed Moscow's full-scale invasion two years ago and that has killed tens of thousands.

Francis made his comments in an interview recorded last month with Swiss broadcaster RSI, well before Friday's latest offer by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to host a summit between Ukraine and Russia to end the war.

Erdogan made the fresh offer after a meeting in Istanbul with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Zelenskiy has said while he wants peace he will not give up any territory.

March 8, 2024

Biden SOTU Ratings... up from 2023.

https://deadline.com/2024/03/2024-state-of-the-union-ratings-1235850488/

President Joe Biden‘s State of the Union address drew about 27.7 million viewers across nine networks, signaling a boost in total audience from last year, according to early Nielsen numbers.

About 27.3 million watched in 2023, and that was across 16 networks. The final Nielsen figures are expected later today with additional networks added.

Fox News topped all the networks, drawing 5.64 million, followed by ABC News with 5.02 million, NBC News with 4.33 million, MSNBC with 4.2 million, CBS News with 3.94 million, CNN with 2.51 million, Fox with 1.71 million, Fox Business with 240,000 and CNBC with 112,000.