WarGamer
WarGamer's JournalSome context re: the Afghanistan withdrawal.
One, the Afghan National Gov't was never going to survive.
Without foreign powers propping it up... it was hapless.
So the Taliban was the logical entity to engage with.
Two, the Taliban hadn't orchestrated ANY recent attacks against Western soldiers in this time frame.
The Taliban was actually in charge of protecting the US withdrawal from the country.
The Taliban wasn't responsible for the final strike that killed 13 US soldiers.
It was a group called ISIS-K.
The Taliban hunted down ISIS-K members, executing them publicly.
The difference between Trump and Biden was the details of the withdrawal plan.
Trump wanted to retain Bagram Airfield to be able to project power in the region and store equipment.
The Taliban managed to take advantage of the chaos to overrun the airfield when US forces left in the middle of the night.
In stead of being a baby crying about the election, Trump should have prepped the Biden folks better...
Neoconservatives headed into the Democratic Party tent...
This could be explained thoroughly in a loooong thread but I don't have time for that.
Let's just start with this.
According to Justin Vaisse, Senior Fellow at Brookings and expert on neoconservatism...
Neoconservatism is based on 5 pillars.
1) Internationalism
2) Primacy
3) Militarism
4) Democracy
5) Unilateralism
Trump threatens each and every one of the 5 pillars of neoconservatism.
Depending on world events... neocons find allies in the Democratic Party on at least 3/5 of the pillars.
The other day I called it the "neocon-ification" of the Democratic Party. And I don't like it.
I understand Trump brings strange allies to the Party... but for the love of Dog, DO NOT sell our souls.
The NeverTrumpers may have failed to prevent Donald Trump from becoming president, but he has been a godsend for their public reputations. Instead of remaining in the wilderness, the neoconservatives who make up the bulk of the NeverTrump movement have fitfully begun to move back toward, or at least flirt with, the Democratic Party, which is where the original neocon journey began.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/10/28/neocons-paved-the-way-for-trump-at-least-max-boot-admits-it/
Hush Money case sentencing delayed until after election... that might not be a bad thing.
You see... Merchan had previously stated that sentencing might not be needed AT ALL because of the appeal re: the immune items used during trial.
It would be MUCH more damaging for Merchan to throw out the guilty verdicts BEFORE the election.
Todays The Hill/Emerson polling summary.
Rick Scott in real danger, Senator Schiff has a nice ring to it, Ted Cruz shouldn't extend any leases in DC just yet and TX, FL and OH within MOE.
All indications say REALLY close election.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/september-state-polling-california-florida-ohio-texas/
Apparently the Thiel check cleared the bank... Nate Silver has Trump ahead
WTF Nate??
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1831009262039928856
Just a wandering, meandering discussion on home affordability.
I was looking at some of the proposals to help home ownership like tax credits and such things and IMHO...
They miss the mark.
Housing costs must be DROPPED, not subsidized or controlled.
For example...
Let's say you live in McMansion Town, USA.
You have 10 or 12 housing tracts with 200 homes each... starting at 600k running up over 2m dollars.
You have new shopping malls and a Costco...
You NEED a few 500 unit apartment blocks.
We need reasonable deregulation.
Allow ADU's in many regions.
Allow tiny-homes
Encourage construction of modern car-less cities.
Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after
https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-polling-bounce-convention-after/story?id=113273029The 2024 presidential race may go down in history as one of the most difficult elections to analyze thanks to its many twists and turns. One notable challenge will be measuring the much-ballyhooed "convention bounce," whereby candidates' support in the polls sometimes increases following their party's intensely-watched formal gathering. Normally, a look at how the polls have changed a week or two after each party convention could give us a sense of whether or not the event gave its party a boost.
For her part, on paper, Harris didn't really get a bounce: At the start of the Democratic convention on Aug. 19, she was polling a tad shy of 47 percent in 538's national average, and a week after the convention ended, she's sitting just above 47 percent — a negligible change of around 0.5 points
I've said this 100x here.
This cake is baked.
There are no undecideds or fence sitters.
debates, shmebates... inteviews, blah... no one cares.
Red Team hates Blue team and vice versa.
Both sides have enough voters to win.
The side that GOTV the best, wins.
That's it.
GOTV.
Fresh hot post-RFK endorsement POLLING... Harris +2
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_EQQr3lh.pdfEconomist/YouGov 1368RV, 3.2MOE, 8/25-27
Taken entirely after Jr dropped out and endorsed Trump...
2% isn't enough... it'll take 4-4.5% to win the EV.
GOTV.
Democrats can win this election by championing the working class
My own 2 cents... a little less globalism and "orange man bad" and more addressing the needs of the working class.
Yes, I know that KVH isn't the most popular author... but give it a read.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/28/democrats-working-class-votes-election
One of the most compelling speeches at last week’s Democratic national convention wasn’t followed by balloons. Delivered just a few hours before Kamala Harris’s primetime address, it came from a man with – until now, anyway – zero name recognition. John Russell is a mulleted tree-stump grinder turned activist journalist from rural Ohio. He seemed a bit of a misfit next to glamorous speakers like Oprah and the guy who played the president on Scandal. But on the final night in Chicago, Russell took the stage to give what my colleague Bhaskar Sunkara called “the most radical speech” in the convention’s history.
His blistering remarks cut through the convention’s fever dream to deliver a necessary wake-up call. He warned about the working class’s political disillusionment. He demanded that Democrats reclaim their heritage as fearless defenders of labor. And he issued ambitious prescriptions for action on everything from a living wage to climate crisis. On that last issue, he reminded the gathered delegates that environmental degradation isn’t just a matter of coastal (elite) flooding, but of strip mining and poisoned water in flyover country. Perhaps most impressively, he spoke all this truth to power in only two minutes. As he said himself: “It is our moment to live up to. Let’s get after it.”
538 shows first post RFK Jr endorsement polls....
Morning Consult Harris 48, Trump 44... (where are the other 8%?)
Echelon Insights, Trump +1 head to head...
With RFK Jr in the poll, Harris +2
I keep refreshing these sites... there's a DEARTH of post DNC acceptance and post RFK Jr polls...
where are ABC, Ipsos, Bloomberg, NYT, etc...??
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
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Name: JGender: Male
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Member since: Mon Feb 1, 2021, 09:27 PM
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