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Tomconroy's Journal
Tomconroy's Journal
January 4, 2022

'NYC seems to have peaked'.


Dr. Forman holds three academic positions at Yale and also is head of radiology in the ER in the local hospital. He isn't the only one saying this.

This actually pretty much tracks South Africa and London. A peak after four weeks.
January 4, 2022

The latest on Covid in London:


The rest of the UK is supposed to be maybe 10 days behind. Staffing absences because of positive Covid tests is a real issue.
January 4, 2022

Nate Silver thinks Omicron may have peaked in NYC

He has an interesting metric for thinking it's possible:


Google searches for 'covid symptoms' are dropping.

January 3, 2022

Elizabeth Holmes jury says they are deadlocked on three counts.

You'd assume that means they have reached verdicts on the eight other counts. The judge told them to go back and deliberate longer:


January 3, 2022

The Dangers of Doing Your Own Research

There is an op-ed today in the New York Times about the Dangers of unqualified people who decide to research a topic and then come to believe they have expertise in the area. Worth the read:

In theory, perhaps. But in practice the idea that people should investigate topics on their own, instinctively skeptical of expert opinion, is often misguided. As psychological studies have repeatedly shown, when it comes to technical and complex issues like climate change and vaccine efficacy, novices who do their own research often end up becoming more misled than informed — the exact opposite of what D.Y.O.R. is supposed to accomplish.

Consider what can happen when people begin to learn about a topic. They may start out appropriately humble, but they can quickly become unreasonably confident after just a small amount of exposure to the subject. Researchers have called this phenomenon the beginner’s bubble.

In a 2018 study, for example, one of us (Professor Dunning) and the psychologist Carmen Sanchez asked people to try their hand at diagnosing certain diseases. (All the diseases in question were fictitious, so no one had any experience diagnosing them.) The participants attempted to determine whether hypothetical patients were healthy or sick, using symptom information that was helpful but imperfect, and they got feedback after every case about whether they were right or wrong. Given the limited nature of the symptom information that was provided, the participants’ judgments ought to have been made with some uncertainty.

How did these would-be doctors fare? At the start, they were appropriately cautious, offering diagnoses without much confidence in their judgments. But after only a handful of correct diagnoses, their confidence shot up drastically — far beyond what their actual rates of accuracy justified. Only later, as they proceeded to make more mistakes, did their confidence level off to a degree more in line with their proficiency.


January 1, 2022

Today in Connecticut.

I was out and about a bit today: Lunch with a friend. We went to a Mexican place that was uncrowded. 40 year old bartender. Martini was good. All staff in masks. The golf course next door was packed. It was in the 50s today.
Went to Target. Tremendous crowd. 95 percent wearing masks. Found the Woolite my wife couldn't find anywhere.
Yale New Haven Hospital is at capacity but not overwhelmed yet. They have suspended all visitors. A day or two ago Dr. Howard Forman of Yale predicted Omicron will peak the 2nd week of January. Let's hope!
Plans for tonight: Open a bottle of Prosecco the wine store recommended. Watch The Thin Man marathon on TCM. Fall asleep before midnight.
Happy New Year!🥳

Profile Information

Name: Tom Conroy
Gender: Male
Home country: USA
Current location: Langley, Virginia
Member since: Sat Mar 6, 2021, 08:56 PM
Number of posts: 7,611

About Tomconroy

Member of NAFO. Living large on an enormous CIA paycheck.
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