First about the Iowa Clown Car Demolition Derby. This isn't the entire state...it's a minority. Remember, the last rushpublican to win Iowa was Raygun in '84. Even moreso, this is a universe of active rushpublicans...those with some kind of agenda that sees all the media activity as a chance to make noise and get noticed.
The state and caucus process is also one where organizations matter the most. Since you need to get your supporters in one place at one time, those who have the ground troops will always do better than those who rely on winning "over the air" with teevee ads. Polls mean little when many who are contacted either don't go to the caucus or can show up and decide at the last moment. If anything, when it looks like your candidate is doing poorly, many causes give you the chance to switch to another candidate before the votes are finally tallied. This is where organization is really critical as those with the strongest supporters will always attract the stragglers.
Overall, a Paul win or Rectorum or Trix Rabbit means little to this President. The Paulbots will make noise and win delegates to the convention and be a bigger threat to a Mittens or any other "frontrunner". The fun begins when they realize their candidate won't get much more than a speaking slot at the convention and lets see how many run to Gary Johnson or try to get Paul to run third party. Now, if that happens, it'll help President Obama...but that's months away from happening. In the meantime the demolition derby will go on...
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