Indictments Today [View all]
Yesterday's indictments of 12 Russian military intelligence officers was outstanding. It's fair to say that Trump and others from his campaign and transition teams are “captives” of the Russian indictments. There has been some outstanding analysis, both in the media and here on this forum. I'd like to add a few thoughts to the discussion.
The first thing is that people should not get their hopes up that Trump et al will be charged with treason. In its common usage, “treason” is the most accurate description of what they knowingly did. In that sense – and that sense alone – people are correct in calling it treason. But in the legal sense, as defined by constitutional law, there is zero chance that they will be charged with treason.
It is apparent, however, that Malcolm Nance was correct many months ago, when he said the group will most likely be charged under the Racketeer Influenced Corrupt Organizations Act (also known as the RICO statute). We've seen that Mr. Mueller has been charging groups of Russians twice now, which suggests that in the larger domestic case, he is likely to take the same route. And, as Mr. Nance has recently stated, this allows for the listing of Donald Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator. Since he has been absolutely correct on virtually everything since releasing his 2016 book on the hacking of America, I trust his insight and judgment.
Next, a good prosecutor builds a conspiracy case, as everyone knows, by chipping away, both from the fringes and from the weakest links. Then, he/she uses a systematic process to close in on the top targets. Thus, for example, they targeted General Flynn, a weak link. Then, they indicted a group of Russians for internet activities such as their program on Facebook. Next, they indicted the 12 Russian intelligence officers.
Was it a coincidence that these indictments became public yesterday? Malcolm Nance has noted that in intelligence operations, coincidence take planning and hard work. Mr. Mueller is prosecuting cases from counter-intelligence investigations. The indictments against the 12 Russians had been diled as sealed indictments some time ago, and were opened days before Trump meets with Putin. This is a national security issue, that shows how seriously Mr. Mueller considers the upcoming meeting.
Finally, the fact that Mr. Rosenstein had informed Trump that these indictments were coming, apparently the day before Trump left for the NATO business, is also important. It goes a long way in explaining why Trump's meltdown – when he accused Germany of being a captive of Russia – was so ugly. The old fellow is feeling the pressure of the Mueller investigation closing in on him. Likewise, it explains why the republicans questioning Peter Strzok were so unhinged: their attacks upon him target Mr. Mueller by way of Mr. Rosenstein.
These republicans are planning to try to impeach Mr. Rosenstein, to allow Trump cover to fire him. In their current plan, they do not want Mr. Rosenstein to actually face trial, since as he has said, this would allow him access to their e-mail accounts, etc. (Thus, in a congressional hearing, republicans asked if it were true he had threatened those advocating his impeachment.)
Things look bad for Trump and his co-conspirators. Very bad. So we can anticipate that they will attempt more foolish though destructive actions in upcoming weeks. Count on it. And count on Mr. Mueller to counter their desperate attempts to avoid the legal consequences of their criminal, treasonous behaviors.
Peace,
H2O Man
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