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Response to pnwmom (Reply #20)

Sat Dec 15, 2018, 02:54 AM

32. Trump benefited from a large field and winner-take-all primaries. And, as others have said...

...the Republican electorate is much different than the Democratic electorate. There were factors at play in 2016 that won't be in 2020. We had a Democratic nominee who had been under ruthless attack for 3 decades, Comey's last minute announcement and Trump was new (he still has a cult following, but he's even more hated now than he was 2 years ago).

MI and PA were blue for 6 straight elections prior to 2016, and WI was blue for 7 straight. I think any number of potential Democratic nominees will carry all 3 states, which would give our nominee 278 electoral votes. Because I don't think Trump can carry a single state that Clinton won. Be it VA or NV or CO, I just can't see Trump winning any state that he lost in '16.

Other states that will be in play include Florida (which is less red in presidential elections), North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. Maybe even Iowa, Ohio and Texas. At the very least, Republicans will be forced to spend money in those states.

There's also a chance that some right winger will launch a 3rd party bid and pick off a state such as Utah, which would make Trump's path to 270 even more challenging. This is assuming Trump doesn't resign between now and then.

My strong preference is for Harris, but there are other potential candidates who can win.

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Arrow 47 replies Author Time Post
WhiskeyGrinder Dec 2018 OP
Vinca Dec 2018 #1
Garrett78 Dec 2018 #6
Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2018 #11
pnwmom Dec 2018 #20
Sugarcoated Dec 2018 #24
pnwmom Dec 2018 #25
Sugarcoated Dec 2018 #26
R B Garr Dec 2018 #30
pnwmom Dec 2018 #38
Sugarcoated Dec 2018 #46
pnwmom Dec 2018 #47
JI7 Dec 2018 #29
scarytomcat Dec 2018 #42
pnwmom Dec 2018 #43
scarytomcat Dec 2018 #44
LineLineLineLineReply Trump benefited from a large field and winner-take-all primaries. And, as others have said...
Garrett78 Dec 2018 #32
ananda Dec 2018 #14
Tiggeroshii Dec 2018 #27
UncleTomsEvilBrother Dec 2018 #2
Doremus Dec 2018 #12
TexasTowelie Dec 2018 #3
obnoxiousdrunk Dec 2018 #5
violetpastille Dec 2018 #4
Docreed2003 Dec 2018 #7
Cha Dec 2018 #33
pecosbob Dec 2018 #8
Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2018 #15
JI7 Dec 2018 #21
Garrett78 Dec 2018 #37
Eric J in MN Dec 2018 #9
vsrazdem Dec 2018 #10
Kahuna7 Dec 2018 #13
ismnotwasm Dec 2018 #16
grantcart Dec 2018 #17
Gothmog Dec 2018 #18
GulfCoast66 Dec 2018 #19
Kahuna7 Dec 2018 #39
JI7 Dec 2018 #22
Tiggeroshii Dec 2018 #28
Blue_true Dec 2018 #45
Liberal In Texas Dec 2018 #23
R B Garr Dec 2018 #31
WeekiWater Dec 2018 #34
demosincebirth Dec 2018 #35
betsuni Dec 2018 #36
Skidmore Dec 2018 #40
Bucky Dec 2018 #41
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