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Response to EffieBlack (Original post)

Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:09 PM

86. I do think his path through the primaries is more difficult this year

But a direct linear projection of his potential support this time compared to last time based on the factors you raise is flawed at this stage. It's not the same path, so different variables could give him a different ultimate opening.Potential and current candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown, and even Kamala Harris for example may help drive a campaign narrative and message that resembles (to many ears at least) aspects of Sanders platform. Should they stumble for any reason they could end up plowing the ideological field for Bernie.

We are a year away from the first primary. That is number one and most important. There is an aspect of human nature at play, especially at this stage, which can be called "People like to fall in love." Many are drawn to something new and different partially because it is new and different. It is easier to project your hopes onto a relatively blank slate than onto one where many of the blanks have already been filled in.

It makes sense to me that those who chose not to support Sanders in 2016 after it became a two person race, would see little to no reason to do so at this stage this time around when the political landscape is littered with other real or potential candidates. The test for Sanders is whether he still has s solid, even if smaller, base of supporters who remain loyal to him and can carry him through the crowded early stages of the nomination race. When candidates begin to drop out, from lack of oxygen, lack of money, lack of excitement, various missteps along the way, and the lack of high finishes in actual primaries, a lot of people will need to reevaluate the field because the candidate who had excited them a year out is no longer in the race. And virtually everyone by that stage will have been dinged to various extents. Bernie starts out already dinged, but the playing field in that regard will begin to level out as the hard core competition is joined.

When i said above that people are drawn to something "new" and "different" I do not mean to suggest that those "new" potential candidates lack depth and real substance. Some may in retrospect seem like flashes in the pan, but others may be our leaders of a rapidly approaching tomorrow. It's way too soon to be sure. Sanders has a reasonably good reason to believe that he starts out among the top four or so candidates in a very large field, and that his fundraising ability will keep his profile high while many will be hard put to stay front and center. Assuming that Sanders runs, we will find out if your premise is correct after some of the now exciting prospects for the nomination begin to fall by the wayside. Will he begin to gain support then or will he stay plateaued out?

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LineReply I do think his path through the primaries is more difficult this year
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