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Massacure

(7,522 posts)

13. Indeed, a number game it is.

Reply to herding cats (Reply #12)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 12:40 AM

Jan 2020

I posted this in another thread, a pathogen's basic reproduction number is on average the number of susceptible people a pathogen will be passed on to by each infected person over the course of a pandemic. The H1N1 flu in 2009 had a basic reproduction number of 1.4-1.6 and the 1918 Spanish Flu a basic reproduction number of 2-3. So far, estimates of this virus range between 1.4 and 4. H1N1 killed 0.03% of people infected, the Spanish Flu 2%. This virus so far has killed 3%.

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17 replies

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Coronavirus claims 15 more lives in China; first two cases reported in Europe [View all] Quackers Jan 2020 OP

15 deaths over many days compared to 55,000 deaths every day due to at140 Jan 2020 #1

Uh no. 15 more deaths since yesterday's update on a 1 month old virus. nt Quackers Jan 2020 #3

Gotcha...still 15 versus 55,000 die every day in China from various causes. at140 Jan 2020 #4

I think you may be missing the bigger picture. Quackers Jan 2020 #6

I think you are missing the big picture. former9thward Jan 2020 #8

Extrapolation of the data is the big picture Quackers Jan 2020 #9

Ordinary Flu spreads much faster than the Caronvirus has been! at140 Jan 2020 #17

Measles only killed a dozen Americans in the past 20 yr NickB79 Jan 2020 #10

I believe in proportions at140 Jan 2020 #11

It's a numbers game. herding cats Jan 2020 #12

Indeed, a number game it is. Massacure Jan 2020 #13

Exactly. herding cats Jan 2020 #16

Lol, ok! Nt USALiberal Jan 2020 #15

Kick. Mike 03 Jan 2020 #2

exactly... FirstLight Jan 2020 #7

Yikes! I have 6 flights coming up ecstatic Jan 2020 #5

Amazing how these foreign disease panics line up with our election cycle Recursion Jan 2020 #14