Keeping up with the numbers [View all]

[The_jackalope]

Data comes from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ as of 4:00 pm March 18 and 11:30 pm March 21

Global data:

March 18: Cases are increasing by over 17,000 per day. Deaths are increasing by almost 1,000 per day.
March 23: Cases are increasing by over 32,000 per day. Deaths are increasing by almost 1,700 per day.

March 18:The "All Case" CFR (Total Cases/Deaths) is 4.1%. The "Closed Case" CFR ((Recoveries+Deaths)/Deaths) is 9.6%
March 23:The "All Case" CFR (Total Cases/Deaths) is 4.25%. The "Closed Case" CFR ((Recoveries+Deaths)/Deaths) is 11.9%

What I call the "All Case" CFR is what Wikipedia calls the preliminary CFR. The Closed Case CFR approximates what Wikipedia calls the "final CFR". The article contains this caution:

The preliminary CFR, for example, during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

The global infection curve is showing no signs of decelerating into a sigmoid inflection. Simple, high-correlation quadratic projections show 9 million infections and 600,000 deaths world-wide in two months. These are increases of 30+ times today's numbers.

My concern, frankly, is that these projected numbers will prove to be too low.

Different nations will show different CFR values depending on their demographics, population density, the timing and urgency of the testing and distancing measures they undertake, and the quality of their health care system. National values currently vary from a "Closed Case" CFR of 3.5% in South Korea to about 40% for Italy and Spain. The USA isn't doing well yet, with a Closed Case CFR of 66%

The numbers are bad, getting worse fast, and there is no end in sight. If you're not an essential worker, stay home and wash your hands. If you are an essential worker, bless you and may you stay safe.